DATE=07/15/99
TYPE=U-S OPINION ROUNDUP
NUMBER=6-11383
TITLE=TURMOIL IN IRAN
BYLINE=ANDREW N. GUTHRIE
TELEPHONE=619-3335
DATELINE=WASHINGTON
EDITOR=ASSIGNMENTS
CONTENT=
INTRO: FOR ALMOST A WEEK, PRO-REFORM DEMONSTRATORS OF MOSTLY
COLLEGE AND UNIVERSITY STUDENTS HAVE PARADED THROUGH THE STREETS
OF TEHRAN AND SEVERAL OTHER IRANIAN CITIES, DEMANDING MORE
FREEDOM.
AS THE WEEK DREW TO A CLOSE, CALM RETURN, FOLLOWED BY A LARGE
DEMONSTRATION IN TEHRAN, OF ISLAMIC FUNDAMENTALISTS SPONSORED BY
THE HARD LINERS IN THE GOVERNMENT WHO OPPOSE THE POLICIES OF MORE
MODERATE PRESIDENT MOHAMMAD KHATAMI.
THE SITUATION IN THIS CRITICAL MIDDLE EASTERN NATION, RULED BY
ISLAMIC CLERICS FOR THE PAST TWO DECADES, IS ACCORDING TO THE U-S
PRESS, MUDDLED TO SAY THE LEAST. AS FOR EDITORIAL COMMENTS ON THE
SITUATION, WE CALL ON _____________ FOR A SAMPLING IN TODAY'S U-S
OPINION ROUNDUP.
TEXT: APPARENTLY WHAT TRIGGERED THIS LATEST, AND MOST SERIOUS
ROUND OF DEMONSTRATIONS SINCE THE IRANIAN REVOLUTION IN 1979 THAT
OVERTHREW THE SHAH, WAS THE CLOSING BY THE GOVERNMENT OF "SALAM,"
A COMPARATIVELY MODERATE NEWSPAPER. STUDENTS AT TEHRAN
UNIVERSITY GATHERED IN SMALL NUMBERS TO PROTEST THE CLOSING, BUT
WHEN SECURITY POLICE RAIDED A UNIVERSITY DORMITORY AND BEAT
STUDENTS, THE PROTESTS QUICKLY ESCALATED TO WIDESPREAD STREET
DEMONSTRATIONS THAT INCLUDED MORE THAN STUDENTS.
PEACE RETURNED ON WEDNESDAY [7/15] COINCIDENTALLY WITH THE
PRO-HARDLINE DEMONSTRATIONS. THE U-S PRESS REACTION BEGINS WITH
"NEWSDAY" ON LONG ISLAND, WHICH CAUTIONS WASHINGTON TO "WATCH AND
WAIT."
VOICE: IN THE CONFLICT BETWEEN POLITICAL DEMOCRATIZERS AND
ISLAMIC REACTIONARIES THAT HAS ROILED IRAN FOR THE LAST
WEEK, THERE IS ABSOLUTELY NO DOUBT WHICH SIDE THE UNITED
STATES IS ON. IT QUITE RIGHTLY SUPPORTS THE UNIVERSITY
STUDENTS WHO ARE CALLING FOR GREATER PRESS FREEDOM AND
MORE DEMOCRACY -- AND GETTING TEAR-GASSED AND CLUBBED IN
THE STREETS AS A RESULT. THE FRUSTRATING FACT IS,
THOUGH, THAT THERE IS LITTLE WASHINGTON CAN DO TO
INFLUENCE THE OUTCOME IN THIS STRUGGLE, BECAUSE ITS
BACKING MAY BE MORE OF A LIABILITY THAN AN ASSET.
TEXT: AS "THE SUN" IN BALTIMORE SEES IT, THE STUDENTS MAY WELL
HAVE MORE POWER THAN EVEN THEY REALIZE, TO INFLUENCE THE FUTURE
OF THEIR COUNTRY.
VOICE: THE STUDENTS DEMONSTRATING FOR THE PAST WEEK ...
SUPPRESSED AND ... KILLED BY TYRANTS AFRAID OF THEM,
KNOW ONLY THE EDUCATION AND GOVERNMENT PROVIDED BY THE
ISLAMIC REVOLUTION. ... THE SPIRITUAL LEADER AYATOLLAH
ALI KHAMENEI UNDERSTANDS HOW TRULY SUBVERSIVE THESE
STUDENTS ARE, THOUGH THEY DO NOT. IF THEY COULD READ
FREELY EXPRESSED CRITICISM IN NEWSPAPERS, IF LEADING
CRITICS WOULD NO LONGER BE MURDERED, IF THE MOST
IGNORANT YOUNG MEN OF THE COUNTRY WERE NOT SENT OUT AS
MORALITY POLICE, THE REGIME MIGHT WELL BE UNDERMINED --
GRADUALLY, PEACEFULLY AND IRREVOCABLY. /// OPT /// THE
STUDENT DEMONSTRATORS ARE LOYAL TO THE MODERATE BUT WEAK
PRESIDENT, MOHAMMAD KHATAMI. HE IS DISLOYAL TO THEM.
HIDING IN HIS PRESIDENTIAL PALACE, HE WENT ON TELEVISION
ACCUSING THE DEMONSTRATORS OF 'EVIL AIMS' AND VIOLENCE.
WHEN CHINESE POLICE MOWED DOWN STUDENT DEMONSTRATORS --
THE CREAM OF THE NEW GENERATION -- IN TIANANMEN SQUARE A
DECADE AGO, THE REGIME DID NOT FALL. WHEN INDONESIAN
TROOPS DID THE SAME TO STUDENTS IN JAKARTA MORE THAN A
YEAR AGO, THAT REGIME DID FALL. /// END OPT ///
KILLING STUDENTS IS A SERIOUS BUSINESS IN MOST
COUNTRIES. THE SPIRITUAL LEADER OF IRAN, WHO RATHER
THAN THE PRESIDENT COMMANDS THE POLICE, WOULD BE WELL
ADVISED TO HOLD IT TO A MINIMUM.
TEXT: FOR ITS PART, "THE WALL STREET JOURNAL" FROM NEW YORK
BELIEVES THAT WHATEVER HAPPENS, GOING BACK TO THE WAY THINGS WERE
IS OUT OF THE QUESTION.
VOICE: THE DEMONSTRATIONS THAT HAVE ROCKED IRAN HIT DAY SIX,
ONLY YESTERDAY IT WAS THE MULLAHS' TURN TO SEND THEIR
SUPPORTERS INTO THE STREETS. NO MATTER. THIS MOST
STRATEGIC OF COUNTRIES IS NOT LIKELY TO BE THE SAME;
THESE PROTESTS ... ARE THE FIRST SUCH STREET PROTESTS TO
OCCUR IN IRAN'S THEOCRATIC ISLAMIC REPUBLIC SINCE THE
UNITED STATES HELPED OVERTHROW THE SHAH IN 1979.
PERHAPS ANOTHER MAJOR BREAKPOINT IS IN THE AIR. ... TO
HELP A LARGE AND IMPORTANT COUNTRY LIKE IRAN REJOIN THE
COMMUNITY OF SERIOUS NATIONS, THE WEST SHOULD SUGGEST
INTERNATIONALLY SUPERVISED ELECTIONS, WITHOUT
RESTRICTIONS ON CANDIDACY. ... FREE SOCIETIES, NOT
DESPERATE AUTHORITARIAN REGIMES, ARE THE BEST GUARANTORS
OF STABILITY OVER THE LONG RUN.
TEXT: FOR THE VIEW FROM CALIFORNIA, WE PULL UP THE CAPITOL'S
"SACRAMENTO BEE" WHICH SAYS, IN PART:
VOICE: VIEWED BROADLY, THIS MANIFESTATION OF YOUTHFUL
FRUSTRATION -- IN A COUNTRY WHERE 65-PERCENT OF THE
PEOPLE ARE UNDER 25 [EDITORS: YEARS OF AGE] -- IS A
HOPEFUL SIGN THAT PRESIDENT MOHAMMAD KHATAMI HAS STRONG
SUPPORT FOR HIS MODERATE REFORMIST PROGRAM AMONG THOSE
WHO EMBODY THE FUTURE. BUT JUST NOW, THE DANGER IS
GREAT THAT THE MULLAHS WHO WIELD REAL POWER IN IRAN WILL
OVERREACT AND PROVOKE MORE VIOLENCE. ... WHAT HE
[PRESIDENT KHAMENEI] DOES NEXT -- WHETHER HE CURBS THE
BEHAVIOR OF POLICE AND VIGILANTES OR UNLEASHES THEM --
MAY DETERMINE WHETHER UNREST SUBSIDES OR IS FURTHER
INFLAMED, CREATING A MAJOR CRISIS FOR A COUNTRY THAT
ALREADY HAS THEM APLENTY.
/// OPT ///
IRAN'S AMORPHOUS YOUTH MOVEMENT DOES NOT SEEK TO UNDO
THE ISLAMIC REVOLUTION OR TO UNSEAT THE AYATOLLAHS. ALL
THE PROTESTERS WANT, IN A GLOBALIZING ERA, IS TO JOIN
THE MODERN WORLD AND TO ENJOY PERSONAL FREEDOMS THAT THE
MULLAHS' RIGID MORAL CODE DENIES THEM. IF THEY ARE
FURTHER FRUSTRATED, THEIR DEMANDS MAY GROW INTO
OPPOSITION TO THE REGIME ITSELF.
/// END OPT ///
TEXT: "THE NEW YORK TIMES" CALLS THIS A "FATEFUL MOMENT:"
VOICE: THE STUDENT PROTESTERS ARE INVOKING THE MORE
DEMOCRATIC AND LIBERAL VALUES ESPOUSED BY PRESIDENT
MOHAMMAD KHATAMI AND BACKED BY A SUBSTANTIAL MAJORITY OF
IRANIANS, PARTICULARLY YOUNG PEOPLE AND WOMEN. IN THE
LONG RUN, THESE MORE HUMANE VALUES ARE LIKELY TO
PREVAIL. ... BUT THE IMMEDIATE COURSE OF EVENTS WILL
DEPEND ON WHETHER THE CLERICAL AUTHORITIES LED BY
AYATOLLAH ALI KHAMENEI UNDERSTAND THAT THEY MUST RELAX
THEIR STRANGLEHOLD ON IRANIAN SOCIETY.
TEXT: ECHOING THOSE VIEWS, "THE ORLANDO [FLORIDA] SENTINEL"
ADDS:
VOICE: IF IT TRULY WISHES TO GET ALONG WITH OTHERS AND
IMPROVE ITS TIES TO THE WORLD, IRAN MUST FIRST LISTEN TO
ITS OWN PEOPLE. PUNISHING PROTESTERS FOR CHAMPIONING
THE VERY PRINCIPLES A MAJORITY SUPPORTS WILL LEAD TO
FAILURE AND ISOLATION.
TEXT: "THE PITTSBURGH [PENNSYLVANIA] POST-GAZETTE" SUGGESTS:
VOICE: IRAN, LONG BEFORE ITS DESCENT INTO FUNDAMENTALIST
MADNESS, WAS A NATION SUSTAINED BY A HISTORY OF
EDUCATION, CULTURE AND REFINEMENT. THE MEDIEVAL ISLAMIC
YOKE THAT ITS PEOPLE EMBRACED 20-YEARS AGO IS BOUND TO
CHAFE IN A MODERN WORLD OF INSTANT COMMUNICATIONS AND
GLOBAL AWARENESS. THE OUTBREAK AT TEHRAN UNIVERSITY IS
BUT A SIGN OF THE STRAIN. BLAMING THE UNITED STATES AS
USUAL WILL SUCCEED ONLY WITH THE MOST IGNORANT SECTIONS
OF THE POPULATION. ... SOME IRANIANS HAVE BEGUN TO
REALIZE THAT THE 'GREAT SATAN' LIVES AT HOME.
TEXT: FINALLY, AN IRANIAN EXILE IN NEW ENGLAND, WRITES THIS
EDITORIAL COMMENT IN "THE BOSTON GLOBE" SUGGESTING PRESIDENT
KHATAMI IS NOT AS MODERATE AS THE UNITED STATES IS PORTRAYING
HIM, AND THAT, IN FACT, THE "U-S IS SIDING WITH THE WRONG LEADER
IN IRAN":
VOICE: [MR.] KHATAMI'S INABILITY TO TRANSFORM IRAN INTO A
DEMOCRATIC STATE ORIGINATES FROM HIS FIRM COMMITMENT TO
'VELAYAT-EFAQIH,' OR ABSOLUTE CLERICAL RULE. ... [HIS]
CLAIM OF MODERATION IS A DECEPTION DESIGNED TO ERASE TWO
DECADES OF SYSTEMATIC INHUMANE TREATMENT OF A PROUD
NATION. IRAN'S POLITICAL LANDSCAPE DOES NOT FAVOR A
REPEAT OF PREVIOUS MISGUIDED POLICIES BY THE WEST. IRAN
WILL NEVER BE AN 'ISLAND OF STABILITY' AS LONG AS THE
MULLAHS RULE IT.
/// END OPT ///
TEXT: THAT CONCLUDES THIS SAMPLING OF U-S PRESS COMMENT ON THIS
WEEK'S RIOTING IN IRAN.
NEB/ANG/RAE
15-Jul-99 1:50 PM EDT (1750 UTC)
NNNN
Source: Voice of America
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