DATE=7/14/99
TYPE=BACKGROUND REPORT
NUMBER=5-43880
TITLE=CLASH IN IRAN
BYLINE= ED WARNER
DATELINE= WASHINGTON
CONTENT=
VOICED AT:
INTRO: COUNTER DEMONSTRATORS HAVE POURED INTO THE STREETS OF
TEHRAN IN RESPONSE TO STUDENT PROTESTS. THE CONTENDING FORCES
ILLUSTRATE IRAN'S DIVISION BETWEEN ULTRA CONSERVATIVE CLERICS
CLINGING TO POWER AND REFORMERS SEEKING A MORE OPEN, ACCOUNTABLE
SOCIETY. VOA'S ED WARNER REPORTS SOME VIEWS OF THE CLASH.
TEXT: THE PROTESTS AGAINST CLERICAL RULE IN IRAN MAY BE
UNSTOPPABLE, SAYS KENNETH TIMMERMAN, EXECUTIVE DIRECTOR OF THE
FOUNDATION FOR DEMOCRACY IN IRAN, A WASHINGTON-BASED
ORGANIZATION. HE BELIEVES THEY HAVE OVERTAKEN PRESIDENT MOHAMMED
KHATAMI'S MORE CAUTIOUS REFORM:
// TIMMERMAN ACT //
PRESIDENT KHATAMI HAS COME OUT VERY MUCH AGAINST THE
PROTESTS. HE HAS ASKED THE STUDENTS TO GO HOME. HE HAS
SAID THEY ARE BEING LED BY PEOPLE WITH EVIL DESIGNS. I
THINK IT IS VERY CLEAR PRESIDENT KHATAMI IS A MEMBER OF
THE RULING CLERICAL ELITE. HIS INTERESTS ARE IN
PRESERVING CLERICAL RULE. HE DOES NOT WANT TO SEE THESE
DEMONSTRATIONS CONTINUE.
// END ACT //
HE MAY HAVE GOOD REASON NOT TO WANT THE DEMONSTRATIONS TO
CONTINUE, SAYS ERVAND ABRAHAMIAN, PROFESSOR OF HISTORY AT CITY
UNIVERSITY OF NEW YORK. IF THE PROTESTS GO TOO FAR, A REACTION
MAY FOLLOW THAT UNDERMINES REFORM:
// ABRAHAMIAN ACT //
WHAT THE ULTRA-CONSERVATIVES HOPE IS THAT THE STUDENT
FRUSTRATION WILL FLOW INTO ULTRA-RADICAL CHANNELS,
CALLING BASICALLY FOR THE OVERTHROW OF THE SYSTEM,
DENUNCIATION OF THE WHOLE REVOLUTION. IF THOSE SORT OF
DEMANDS ARE EXPRESSED - EVEN IF THEY ARE NOT THE
DOMINANT VOICE AMONG THE STUDENTS - THIS WILL BE USED BY
THE ULTRA-CONSERVATIVES AS AN EXCUSE TO CLAMP DOWN.
// END ACT //
PROFESSOR ABRAHAMIAN SAYS THE REPRESSION COULD BE AS HARSH AS THE
CHINESE CRACKDOWN ON DEMONSTRATORS IN TIANANMEN SQUARE IN 1989.
THE CASUALTIES MIGHT NOT ONLY BE STUDENT DEMONSTRATORS BUT
REFORMERS AS WELL, INCLUDING PRESIDENT KHATAMI.
TIME IS NOT ON THE SIDE OF CLERICAL RULE, SAYS PROFESSOR
ABRAHAMIAN. ITS BASE HAS STEADILY ERODED AND MAY NOW COMPRISE
ONLY TEN PER CENT OF THE POPULATION.
BUT ITS SUPPORTERS STILL RUN THE SECURITY AND INTELLIGENCE
SERVICES, WHICH ARE DOING THEIR BEST TO SABOTAGE REFORM.
PROFESSOR ABRAHAMIAN SAYS A KIND OF SHADOW GOVERNMENT CARRIES OUT
ASSASSINATIONS OF IRANIAN DISSIDENTS AND WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE
RECENT ARREST OF THIRTEEN IRANIAN JEWS FOR ALLEGEDLY SPYING FOR
ISRAEL AND THE UNITED STATES.
SINCE THE RULING CLERICS ARE MAINLY CONCERNED WITH DOMESTIC
POLICY, THEY HAVE PERMITTED PRESIDENT KHATAMI A RELATIVELY FREE
HAND IN FOREIGN RELATIONS, AND HE HAS MADE USE OF IT - MENDING
TIES WITH SAUDI ARABIA AND THE OTHER GULF STATES AND CURTAILING
EFFORTS TO DESTABILIZE THE REGION.
IRAN HANGS IN THE BALANCE, SAYS PROFESSOR ABRAHAMIAN:
// ABRAHAMIAN ACT //
DOES LEGITIMACY OF POWER COME FROM THE DIVINE RIGHT OF
CLERICS TO RULE OR DOES IT COME FROM THE RIGHT OF THE
PEOPLE TO RULE? THIS SORT OF TENSION BETWEEN THE TWO
BASES OF LEGITIMACY HAS BEEN THERE SINCE THE REVOLUTION,
AND IT HAS BEEN BACK AND FORTH. SINCE (AYATOLLAH)
KHOMEINI DIED. CLEARLY THE DIVINE RIGHT OF THE CLERICS
HAS WEAKENED BECAUSE HIS CHARISMA IS NOT THERE.
// END ACT //
IT IS A LIFE AND DEATH STRUGGLE, SAYS PROFESSOR ABRAHAMIAN. IF
THE ULTRA-CONSERVATIVES LOSE THEIR GRIP ON POWER, THEY KNOW THEIR
IDEOLOGY MAY BE DOOMED.
BUT HE HASTENS TO ADD THE IRANIAN PEOPLE ARE IN NO MOOD FOR
ANOTHER REVOLUTION. ONE WAS ENOUGH, FOR WHICH THEY ARE STILL
PAYING THE PRICE. IF THE VIOLENCE GETS OUT OF HAND, MODERATES
MIGHT DESERT THE PROTESTS AND WITHDRAW FROM POLITICS ALTOGETHER -
PREFERRING THE STATUS QUO, AS BAD AS IT IS, TO UPHEAVAL.
(SIGNED)
NEB/PT
14-Jul-99 4:56 PM EDT (2056 UTC)
NNNN
Source: Voice of America
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