DATE=7/13/99
TYPE=BACKGROUND REPORT
NUMBER=5-43862
TITLE=IRAN UNREST
BYLINE=LAURIE KASSMAN
DATELINE=LONDON
CONTENT=
VOICED AT:
INTRO: CLASHES BETWEEN PRO-REFORM PROTESTERS AND SECURITY POLICE
ERUPTED IN IRAN FOR A SIXTH DAY TUESDAY, DESPITE A BAN ON PUBLIC
DEMONSTRATIONS. THE STUDENT PROTESTS WERE SPARKED BY NEW
RESTRICTIONS ON PRESS FREEDOM AND THE CLOSURE LAST WEEK OF A
LEADING LIBERAL IRANIAN NEWSPAPER. BUT THE PROTEST SPREAD AFTER
A POLICE ASSAULT ON TEHRAN UNIVERSITY KILLED ONE AND INJURED
DOZENS OF STUDENTS. AS THE VIOLENCE SPREAD BEYOND TEHRAN,
CORRESPONDENT LAURIE KASSMAN TAKES A LOOK AT THE POSSIBLE
CONSEQUENCES OF THE STUDENT PROTESTS.
TEXT: THE BOLDNESS AND FEROCITY OF THE STUDENT PROTEST IS BEING
COMPARED TO THE 1979 ISLAMIC REVOLUTION THAT TOPPLED SHAH REZA
PAHLEVI.
TEHRAN UNIVERSITY PROFESSOR SADEGH ZIBAKALAM SAYS THE SCALE AND
STRENGTH OF THE DEMONSTRATIONS ARE SENDING A SERIOUS MESSAGE TO
IRAN'S LEADERS.
/// ZIBAKALAM ACT ///
I THINK IF THERE AREN'T ANY OTHER MESSAGES FROM THIS,
THERE IS ONE SINGLE MESSAGE: THAT IS, AS FAR AS
POLITICAL REFORM IS CONCERNED, EVERYTHING IS NOT OKAY
AND YOUTH AND STUDENTS HAVE BEEN EXPECTING FAR MORE FROM
PRESIDENT KHATAMI THAN HE HAS BEEN ABLE TO DELIVER
DURING THE PAST TWO YEARS. THAT MESSAGE IS QUITE CLEAR.
/// END ACT ///
BOTH REFORMIST AND CONSERVATIVE FACTIONS IN IRAN'S GOVERNMENT ARE
PAINFULLY AWARE OF THE POLITICAL POWER OF THE COUNTRY'S YOUTH.
MORE THAN HALF THE POPULATION OF 60-MILLION IS UNDER THE AGE OF
20. IT WAS THE SUPPORT OF IRAN'S YOUTH AND WOMEN THAT HELPED PUT
MR. KHATAMI IN OFFICE
MOST ANALYSTS SAY IRAN'S YOUTHFUL VOTERS STILL ARE WILLING TO
GIVE THE PRESIDENT MORE TIME TO CARRY OUT HIS PROMISED POLITICAL
AND SOCIAL REFORMS. THEY ARE AWARE OF HIS STRUGGLE WITH
CONSERVATIVES OPPOSING THE REFORMS. BUT PROFESSOR ZIBAKALAM
SAYS THE STUDENTS' INFLUENCE CANNOT BE IGNORED.
/// SECOND ZIBAKALAM ACT ///
I THINK THE AUTHORITIES WOULD UNDOUBTEDLY GET THE UPPER
HAND -- AND THE STREETS OF TEHRAN WILL BE QUIET WITHIN
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. BUT THE REAL PROBLEM IS HOW TO
TACKLE THE YOUTH AND STUDENTS. AND WHAT THEY WANT IS
SOMETHING THAT WILL NOT DISAPPEAR AND WON'T GO AWAY.
//OPT// IT IS SOMETHING THE IRANIAN LEADERS --
MODERATES AND CONSERVATIVES -- HAVE TO CONFRONT AND
RESPOND IN THE MONTHS TO COME ONE WAY OR ANOTHER. //END
OPT//
/// END ACT ///
A LIKELY DEADLINE FOR THE RESPONSE IS IRAN'S PARLIAMENTARY
ELECTIONS, SET FOR NEXT FEBRUARY.
IRAN ANALYST GEORGE JOFFE OF LONDON'S ROYAL INSTITUTE OF
INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS SAYS BOTH SIDES ARE ALREADY TRYING TO
POSITION THEMSELVES FOR THOSE ELECTIONS.
/// JOFFE ACT ///
THE FEBRUARY ELECTIONS ARE EXTREMELY IMPORTANT. DON'T
FORGET THAT EARLIER THIS YEAR THERE WERE ELECTIONS FOR
MUNICIPALITIES FOR THE FIRST TIME IN WHICH THE MODERATES
WON RESOUNDINGLY. AND THE CONSERVATIVES, DESPITE
SERIOUS MACHINATIONS TO INTERFERE WITH THE ELECTORAL
PROCESS, WERE SEVERELY DISCOMFORTED.
/// END ACT ///
THE CONSERVATIVES CANNOT AFFORD TO LOSE CONTROL OF THE
PARLIAMENT, IF THEY WANT TO STOP THE REFORMS THEY SEE DESTROYING
PRINCIPLES OF THE 1979 ISLAMIC REVOLUTION.
//OPT// PROFESSOR ZIBAKALAM SAYS MODERATE STUDENT LEADERS HAVE
APPEALED FOR CALM TO AVOID PROVOKING A WIDER SECURITY CRACKDOWN.
/// THIRD ZIBAKALAM ACT ///
ONE OF THE REASONS WHY THE MORE MODERATE STUDENTS WERE
CALLING IT A DAY (STOPPING THEIR PROTEST) YESTERDAY OR
LAST NIGHT WAS THE FACT THEY WERE A BIT SKEPTICAL AND
FRIGHTENED THAT THE WHOLE THING MIGHT PLAY INTO THE
HANDS OF THE HARD-LINERS, RATHER THAN GAINING AND
IMPROVING ON THE HUMAN RIGHTS SITUATION IN IRAN AND
POLITICAL REFORM THAT PRESIDENT KHATAMI HAS EMBARKED
UPON DURING THE PAST TWO YEARS.
/// END ACT ///
THE SECURITY CRACKDOWN HAS BROUGHT BOTH CRITICISM FROM FOREIGN
GOVERNMENTS AND RENEWED INTERNATIONAL SUPPORT FOR PRESIDENT
KHATAMI'S REFORM EFFORTS. //END OPT//
IRAN WATCHERS OUTSIDE THE COUNTRY SUGGEST THE STUDENT PROTESTS
SHOW THAT THE REFORM MOVEMENT SPEARHEADED BY PRESIDENT KHATAMI IS
IRREVERSIBLE. BUT THE CLASHES ALSO HIGHLIGHT THE HEATED BATTLE
BETWEEN REFORMISTS AND CONSERVATIVES TO CONTROL IRAN'S POLITICAL
FUTURE. (SIGNED)
NEB/LMK/PCF
13-Jul-99 12:43 PM EDT (1643 UTC)
NNNN
Source: Voice of America
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