DATE=2/12/99
TYPE=BACKGROUND REPORT
NUMBER=5-42605
TITLE=IRAN'S INTERNAL STRUGGLE
BYLINE= ED WARNER
DATELINE= WASHINGTON
CONTENT=
VOICED AT:
INTRO: THE DEMOCRATIC GENIE IS OUT OF THE BOTTLE, SAID A
SPEAKER AT A RECENT WASHINGTON CONFERENCE ON IRAN (THURS., FEB.
11). BUT HE AND OTHERS WARNED IT WOULD BE AN IRANIAN DEMOCRACY
AND NOT LIKE OTHERS. THE OUTSIDE WORLD SHOULD TREAT IT WITH
RESPECT BUT ALSO WITH CAUTION AS IRAN STRUGGLES TO RECONCILE ITS
VERSION OF ISLAM WITH FREEDOM. VOA'S ED WARNER REPORTS.
TEXT: IRAN IS NOW HAVING A REMARKABLE ENCOUNTER WITH GRASS
ROOTS DEMOCRACY, SAID MOHSEN MILANI, PROFESSOR OF INTERNATIONAL
AFFAIRS AT THE UNIVERSITY OF SOUTH FLORIDA. SINCE MOHAMMED
KHATAMI WAS ELECTED PRESIDENT IN 1997 WITH A LARGE POPULAR VOTE,
IRAN HAS BEEN MOVING IN A DEMOCRATIC DIRECTION.
BUT IN ITS OWN IRANIAN WAY, CAUTIONED PROFESSOR MILANI IN HIS
SPEECH AT A CONFERENCE HELD BY THE CENTER FOR MUSLIM-CHRISTIAN
UNDERSTANDING AND THE MIDDLE EAST INSTITUTE, TWO PRIVATE RESEARCH
ORGANIZATIONS IN WASHINGTON:
// MILANI ACT //
SINCE THE DAWN OF THE ISLAMIC REVOLUTION, A PRIMITIVE
BUT PROMISING ELITE PLURALISM - WHICH IS NOT TO BE
CONFUSED WITH DEMOCRACY - HAS BEEN DEVELOPING IN IRAN,
WHICH IS BASED ON INTENSE RIVALRY AMONG COMPETING
FACTIONS WITHIN THE GOVERNING ELITES. BECAUSE POLITICAL
INSTITUTIONS HAVE GAINED CONSIDERABLE AUTONOMY, FACTIONS
DO ENJOY SOME ROOM TO EXPRESS THEIR VIEWS AND INFLUENCE
POLITICAL OUTCOMES.
// END ACT //
THIS SYSTEM BROUGHT MR. KHATAMI TO POWER, SAID PROFESSOR MILANI.
WHEN HE RAN FOR PRESIDENT, THE VOTER TURNOUT WAS MUCH HIGHER THAN
IN MORE MATURE DEMOCRACIES - A MILESTONE ON THE PATH TO A CIVIL
SOCIETY IN IRAN.
IN OFFICE, PRESIDENT KHATAMI HAS LIVED UP TO HIS PROMISE,
EXTENDING FREEDOM IN IRAN AS BEST HE CAN. BUT HIS POWERS ARE
STRICTLY LIMITED AND SUBORDINATE TO IRAN'S SPIRITUAL LEADER,
AYATOLLAH ALI KHAMENEI, WHO CONTINUES TO ASSERT ISLAMIST RULE.
CONTRARY TO WESTERN OPINION, SAID PROFESSOR MILANI, KHAMENEI HAS
ALLOWED SOME OF THE PRESIDENT'S REFORMS, BUT HE IS UNDER INTENSE
PRESSURE FROM THE CONSERVATIVE CLERICS WHO FEAR KHATAMI MAY BE
ANOTHER GORBACHEV AND LEAD TO THE COLLAPSE OF THE ISLAMIST
REPUBLIC.
IT IS NO EASY TASK TO RECONCILE FAITH WITH LIBERTY, SAID
PROFESSOR MILANI. SO PATIENCE IS NEEDED AS IRAN'S TWO LEADERS
STRUGGLE FOR COMPROMISE:
// MILANI ACT //
THE FACT THAT THESE TWO HAVE COOPERATED IN THE PAST TWO
YEARS SPEAKS VOUMES ABOUT THE MATURITY OF THAT SYSTEM.
KHATAMI HAS ALREADY ACHIEVED MUCH UNDER HIS TENURE. IT
IS NOW TIME TO CONSOLIDATE WHAT HAS BEEN ACHIEVED RATHER
THAN ACCELERATE THE PROCESS OF REFORM WHICH COULD RESULT
IN A POWERFUL REACTION BY THE CONSERVATIVES, WHICH IN
TURN CAN REVERSE THIS PROMISING TREND.
// END ACT //
IRAN'S DEALINGS WITH THE REST OF THE WORLD WILL BE NO EASIER TO
RESOLVE, SAID ANOTHER CONFERENCE SPEAKER, GARY SICK, EXECUTIVE
DIRECTOR OF GULF/2000, AN INTERNATIONAL RESEARCH PROJECT ON
DEVELOPMENTS IN THE PERSIAN GULF.
WHILE THE UNITED STATES NEEDS TO RECONSIDER ITS POLICY TOWARD
IRAN, MR. SICK SAID IT SHOULD NOT EXPECT ANY DRAMATIC IMPROVEMENT
IN RELATIONS. HE BELIEVES IRAN VIEWS FOREIGN POLICY LIKE A BAZAAR
- HARD BARGAINING FOR MOMENTARY ADVANTAGE:
// SICK ACT //
WE HAVE SEEN EXAMPLES RECENTLY OF THE WAY IRAN BEHAVES
WHEN IT FEELS IT HAS A LITTLE BIT OF LEVERAGE. LOOK AT
HOW THEY REACTED TO THE DEATH OF THE KING OF JORDAN,
TAKING A VERY TOUGH, NASTY RESPONSE THAT "WE ARE NOT
GOING TO GO (TO THE FUNERAL) BECAUSE YOU SAID THAT MAYBE
IRAN IS A THREAT TO SOME OF ITS NEIGHBORS IN THE PERSIAN
GULF." IRAN AT ITS WORST IS STIFF NECKED, EXCESSIVELY
PROUD AND TOUCHY. IT EXPLOITS THE WORST OF THE BAZAAR
MENTALITY.
// END ACT //
BUT IRAN IS MADE TOO VILLAINOUS BY THE UNITED STATES, SAID FRED
HALLIDAY, PROFESSOR OF INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS AT THE LONDON
SCHOOL OF ECONOMICS. HE SAID IN GENERAL EUROPEANS FIND LESS
EVIDENCE OF SUPPORT OF TERRORISM IN IRAN AND INDEED SHARE SOME OF
TEHRAN'S CRITICISM OF THE MIDDLE EAST PEACE PROCESS.
NO DOUBT IRAN IS SEEKING WEAPONS OF MASS DESTRUCTION, SAID
PROFESSOR HALLIDAY, BUT NOT WITHOUT REASON:
// HALLIDAY ACT //
ONE HAS TO LOOK AT IT NOT JUST IN AN ARAB-ISRAELI
CONTEXT, AS IS TOO FREQUENTLY DONE, BUT IN A REGIONAL
CONTEXT. IRAN HAS IRAQ ON ITS WESTERN FRONTIER, AND IT
IS IRAQ AFTER ALL, WHICH KILLED A MILLION IRANIANS IN
THAT WAR (1980-1988) AND WHICH WOULD GO TO WAR WITH IRAN
AGAIN IF AND WHEN IT COULD. IRAN BORDERS PAKISTAN, WHICH
HAS NOW ACQUIRED NUCLEAR WEAPONS, AND BEEN ALLOWED TO DO
SO, ALONG WITH INDIA, BY AN INDULGENT AND IRRESPONSIBLE
INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY.
// END ACT //
UNDER THESE CIRCUMSTANCES, SAID PROFESSOR HALLIDAY, ANY NATION
WOULD SEEK A DETERRENT. CONFIDENCE BUILDING MEASURES ARE NEEDED
TO REACH A REGIONAL SECURITY ARRANGEMENT, OF WHICH IRAN WOULD BE
A PART. HE SAID IT IS TOO PROMINENT A PART OF THE REGION TO BE
SHUNNED OR EXCLUDED. (SIGNED)
NEB/PT
12-Feb-99 5:55 PM EST (2255 UTC)
NNNN
Source: Voice of America
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