DATE=2/8/99
TYPE=BACKGROUND REPORT
NUMBER=5-42545
TITLE=IRANIAN REVOLUTION AT 20: RELATIONS WITH U-S
BYLINE=ALI JALALI
DATELINE=WASHINGTON
CONTENT=
NOT VOICED:
INTRO: IRAN THIS MONTH (FEB 11) CELEBRATES THE TWENTIETH
ANNIVERSARY OF THE ISLAMIC REVOLUTION THAT OVERTHREW THE
PRO-AMERICAN REGIME OF MOHMMAD RAZA SHAH PAHLAVI. (IN THIS SECOND
OF A THREE PART SERIES) V-O-A'S ALI JALALI LOOKS AT PROSPECTS FOR
IMPROVEMENTS IN U-S-IRAN RELATIONS, WHICH HAVE BEEN FROZEN SINCE
THE ESTABLISHMENT OF THE REVOLUTIONARY GOVERNMENT IN IRAN.
TEXT: U-S RELATIONS WITH IRAN TURNED HOSTILE RIGHT AFTER THE
VICTORY OF THE REVOLUTION. THE IRANIAN REVOLUTIONARIES, WHO WERE
MILITANTLY ISLAMIC AND ANTI-WESTERN, BLAMED THE UNITED STATES FOR
SUPPORTING THE SHAH'S AUTHORITARIAN REGIME, AS WELL AS
WASHINGTON'S ROLE IN THE REMOVAL IN 1953 OF THE COUNTRY'S POPULAR
NATIONALIST PRIME MINISTER, MOHAMMAD MOSADEQ.
IN NOVEMBER 1979, IRANIAN STUDENTS, WITH THE APPROVAL OF THE
REVOLUTIONARY LEADER AYATOLLAH KHOMEINI, SEIZED THE U-S EMBASSY
IN TEHRAN AND HELD 52 AMERICAN HOSTAGES FOR 444 DAYS.
THE HOSTAGE CRISIS LEFT A LASTING IMPACT ON RELATIONS BETWEEN THE
TWO NATIONS. WASHINGTON OPPOSED IRAN DURING ITS DEVASTATING WAR
WITH IRAQ (1980-88), FROZE IRANIAN ASSETS IN U-S BANKS AND
IMPOSED ECONOMIC SANCTIONS ON THE ISLAMIC REPUBLIC. THE UNITED
STATES JUSTIFIED ITS ACTIONS BY CITING WHAT IT SAID WERE IRAN'S
THREATS TO AMERICAN INTERESTS AND U-S ALLIES, INCLUDING IRAN'S
SPONSORING OF TERRORISM, ITS OPPOSITION TO THE MIDDLE EAST PEACE
PROCESS AND ITS EFFORTS TO DEVELOP WEAPONS OF MASS DESTRUCTION.
AFTER YEARS OF COOLNESS, HOPES FOR A THAW IN U-S-IRAN RELATIONS
WERE AROUSED LAST YEAR WHEN IRAN'S NEW MODERATE PRESIDENT,
MOHAMMAD KHATAMI, CALLED FOR AN UNOFFICIAL DIALOGUE BETWEEN THE
TWO NATIONS. A POSITIVE RESPONSE FROM WASHINGTON AND A SERIES OF
ACADEMIC AND ATHLETIC EXCHANGES BETWEEN THE TWO COUNTRIES
FOLLOWED.
LAST JUNE, U-S SECRETARY OF STATE MADELEINE ALBRIGHT ANNOUNCED
U-S READINESS TO WORK OUT WITH IRAN WHAT SHE CALLED A "ROAD MAP"
TO NORMAL RELATIONS. BUT, AS FORMER ASSISTANT SECRETARY OF
STATE ROBERT PELLETREAU SAYS, PARTISAN DIFFERENCES IN BOTH
COUNTRIES FRUSTRATED PROSPECTS FOR BETTER TIES.
// PELLETREAU ACT //
THESE POSITIVE GESTURES WERE NOT UNIVERSALLY WELCOMED IN
EITHER SOCIETY AND IN PARTICULAR IN IRAN THEY PROVOKED A SHREWD
AND WELL-TIMED CONSERVATIVE REACTION. AND IN THE UNITED STATES
TOO, EVIDENCE OF CONTINUING IRANIAN INVOLVEMENT IN TERRORISM AND
NEW EXPRESSION OF ANIMOSITY TOWARD ISRAEL AND THE (MIDDLE EAST)
PEACE PROCESS, CONTINUING INTEREST IN NUCLEAR TECHNOLOGY, PERHAPS
NUCLEAR WEAPONS, SHOWED THAT THE MOMENTUM TOWARD BETTER RELATIONS
WAS NOT FULLY SHARED AND GAVE CONSERVATIVES FORCES IN (U-S)
CONGRESS AND ELSEWHERE SOME SOLID REASON TO CONTINUE A MORE
RESTRICTIVE POLICY.
// END ACT //
ONE OF THE MAIN ELEMENTS OF THIS RESTRICTIVE POLICY TOWARD IRAN
HAS BEEN U-S SANCTIONS AGAINST THE ISLAMIC REPUBLIC. THE
CLINTON ADMINISTRATION BANNED TRADE WITH IRAN IN 1995 AND
CONGRESS ADOPTED LEGISLATION IN 1996 (KNOWN AS IRAN-LIBYA
SANCTIONS ACT) THAT PUNISHES FOREIGN COMPANIES INVESTING MORE
THAN 20 MILLION DOLLARS IN IRAN'S ENERGY SECTOR. IRAN HAS
STRONGLY CRITICIZED THE SANCTIONS, WHICH IT VIEWS AS THE MAJOR
OBSTACLE IN NORMAL RELATIONS WITH THE UNITED STATES.
THE U-S BUSINESS COMMUNITY HAS ALSO EXPRESSED DOUBTS ABOUT THE
EFFECTIVENESS OF THE SANCTIONS, SAYING THERE IS NO EVIDENCE THAT
SANCTIONS HAVE OR CAN SUCCEED IN CHANGING IRAN'S BEHAVIOR.
HOWEVER, THE SANCTIONS AGAINST IRAN ARE STRONGLY SUPPORTED BY
CONGRESS, WHICH BELIEVES THAT WHILE THE UNITED STATES CANNOT
INFLUENCE IRANIAN INTENTIONS, IT SHOULD USE SANCTIONS TO LIMIT
WHAT IRAN IS CAPABLE OF DOING. PUNEET TALWAR, A STAFF MEMBER OF
THE SENATE FOREIGN RELATION COMMITTEE, SAYS THE RECENT CHANGES IN
THE IRANIAN GOVERNMENT, HAVE NOT YET LED TO AND SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES IN IRANIAN POLICIES.
// TALWAR ACT //
MANY IN CONGRESS ARE AWARE OF POLITICAL CHANGES THAT HAVE
OCCURRED IN IRAN ESPECIALLY SINCE THE ELECTION OF PRESIDENT
KHATAMI. THEY WOULD LIKE TO SEE A MODERATE IRAN AND IMPROVED
RELATIONS UNDER THE RIGHT CIRCUMSTANCES. BUT THEY STILL REGARD
IRAN AS HOSTILE TO AMERICAN INTERESTS. I BELIEVE THAT IN THE
ABSENCE OF SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN IRANIAN BEHAVIOR IN THE
FAMILIAR THREE AREAS OF U-S CONCERNS -- WEAPONS OF MASS
DESTRUCTION, TERRORISM AND VIOLENT OPPOSITION TO ARAB-ISREAELI
PEACE -- CONGRESS IS NOT LIKELY TO UNILATERALLY REMOVE SANCTIONS
THAT IT HAS LEGISLATED.
// END ACT //
BUT CONGRESSIONAL SOURCES SAY THE LAWMAKERS DO SUPPORT, IN
PRINCIPLE, THE OPENING OF AN OFFICIAL DIALOGUE WITH IRAN. THIS
HAS DRAWN SUPPORT FROM OTHER QUARTERS. LAST MONTH, IN A SPEECH
TO THE ASIA SOCIETY IN NEW YORK, FORMER SECRETARY OF STATE CYRUS
VANCE ISSUED A CALL FOR MORE FREQUENT OFFICIAL CONTACT BETWEEN
WASHINGTON AND TEHRAN. MR. VANCE WHO PARTICIPATED IN THE U-S
DECISION TO BREAK DIPLOMATIC RELATIONS WITH IRAN SOME 19 YEARS
AGO, SAYS IT IS TIME TO LOOK TO THE FUTURE.
// VANCE ACT //
I BELIEVE IT IS TIME FOR IRAN AND THE UNITED STATES TO
RE-ESTABLISH DIPLOMATIC TIES. LEADERSHIP OF PRESIDENT KHATAMI
OFFERS AN OPPORTUNITY FOR IRAN AND THE UNITED STATES TO
AMELIORATE THEIR TENSE AND ESTRANGED RELATIONSHIP. ONCE
DIPLOMATIC RELATIONS ARE ESTABLISHED, EVEN AT LESS THAN THE
AMBASSADORIAL LEVEL, OTHER LEGITIMATE GRIEVANCES, INCLUDING OUR
CONCERNS ABOUT TERRORISM, THE PEACE PROCESS AND WEAPONS OF MASS
DESTRUCTION CAN BEGIN TO BE ADDRESSED.
// END ACT //
INDEPENDENT OBSERVERS IN BOTH COUNTRIES NOTE THAT A SERIOUS
ENGAGEMENT CAN OFFER BOTH SIDES SIGNIFICANT POLITICAL AND
ECONOMIC BENEFITS. THEY SAY MENDING RELATIONS WITH THE UNITED
STATES MAY BOOST IRAN'S TROUBLED ECONOMY AND ATTRACT FOREIGN
INVESTMENT, WHILE FOR THE UNITED STATES, IRAN CAN BE A POWERFUL
PARTNER IN STRENGTHENING AMERICA'S MIDDLE EAST AND CENTRAL ASIAN
POLICIES.
BUT ANALYSTS SAY IT IS UNREALISTIC TO EXPECT ANY DRAMATIC CHANGES
IN U-S / IRANIAN RELATIONS UNTIL SUPPORTERS OF A SERIOUS DIALOGUE
WITH THE UNITED STATES WIELD GREATER POLITICAL POWER IN IRAN.
ONLY THEN, THE ANALYSTS SAY, WILL A TEHRAN GOVERNMENT HAVE THE
STRENGTH TO MAKE BOLD DECISIONS. (SIGNED)
NEB/AJ/KL
08-Feb-99 1:51 PM EST (1851 UTC)
NNNN
Source: Voice of America
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