DATE=2/5/99
TYPE=BACKGROUND REPORT
NUMBER=5-42526
TITLE=IRANIAN REVOLUTION AT 20: STRUGGLE FOR CHANGE
BYLINE=ALI JALALI
DATELINE=WASHINGTON
CONTENT=
NOT VOICED:
INTRO: IRAN THIS MONTH (FEB 11) IS CELEBRATING THE TWENTIETH
ANNIVERSARY OF THE ISLAMIC REVOLUTION THAT OVERTHREW THE
PRO-WESTERN GOVERNMENT OF SHAH MOHAMMAD RAZA PAHLAVI. THE
CELEBRATION COMES AMID GROWING POPULAR DEMAND FOR CHANGE AND A
DEEPENING RIFT BETWEEN RIVAL FACTIONS IN THE RULING CLERGY OVER
POLICY ISSUES. (IN THIS FIRST OF A THREE-PART SERIES) V-O-A'S
ALI JALALI REVIEWS THE CHANGING PERCEPTIONS ABOUT THE ISLAMIC
REVOLUTION AS IT ENTERS ITS THIRD DECADE.
TEXT: MANY PEOPLE OF MANY DIVERSE POLITICAL BACKGROUNDS WERE
RESPONSIBLE FOR THE IRANIAN REVOLUTION. WHAT UNITED THEM WAS
THEIR STRONG OPPOSITION TO THE SHAH'S AUTHORITARIAN RULE AS WELL
WHAT THEY VIEWED AS FOREIGN INTERFERENCE IN THEIR COUNTRY. IT
WAS AFTER THE SHAH'S OUSTER THAT A MILITANT ISLAMIC IDEOLOGY,
UNDER AYATOLLAH ROHULLAH KHOMEINI, TOOK CONTROL OF THE COUNTRY.
AYATOLLAH KHOMEINI LED THE REVOLUTION TO VICTORY ON FEBRUARY 11,
1979, ONLY DAYS AFTER HE HAD RETURNED TO THE COUNTRY AFTER YEARS
OF EXILE IN PARIS. IN THE BEGINNING OF HIS RULE, THE AYATOLLAH
WAS ABLE TO REPRESENT BOTH THE SPIRITUAL AND POLITICAL SIDES OF
THE REVOLUTIONARY MOVEMENT. HOWEVER, IN TIME THE UNITY OF THE
FORCES BEHIND THE REVOLUTION BEGAN TO CRUMBLE.
ABOLHASSAN BANI-SADR, THE FIRST PRESIDENT OF THE
POST-REVOLUTIONARY IRAN, SAYS, DIFFERENCES STARTED TO SURFACE
WHEN THE RULING CLERGY FAILED TO LIVE UP TO WHAT MR. BANI SADR
CALLS THE "GUIDING CONCEPT" OF THE ISLAMIC REVOLUTION.
// BANI-SADR FARSI ACT -- FADE UNDER //
THIS "GUIDING CONCEPT," HE SAYS, WAS BASED ON FOUR PRINCIPLES.
THESE, HE SAYS, WERE INDEPENDENCE, LIBERTY, DEVELOPMENT, AND
ISLAM IN CONFORMITY WITH THE OTHER THREE UNDERLYING PRINCIPLES.
MR. BANI-SADR, WHO HAS LIVED IN EXILE IN PARIS SINCE 1981, SAYS
IT WAS THE ALL-INCLUSIVE NATURE OF THE CONCEPT THAT ENABLED
PEOPLE OF VARYING POLITICAL ORIENTATIONS TO PARTICIPATE IN THE
UNITED FRONT THAT STAGED THE REVOLUTION.
// BANI-SADR FARSI ACT -- FADE UNDER //
BUT, MR. BANI-SADR SAYS, THE INITIAL CONSENSUS SOON DEGENERATED
INTO FACTIONAL DISPUTES OVER THE UNDERLYING PRINCIPLES OF THE NEW
POLITICAL SYSTEM AND DISPUTES OVER DOMESTIC AND FOREIGN POLICIES.
EVEN IN THE FIRST YEAR OF THE REVOLUTION, HE SAYS, IRANIANS WERE
FAR FROM UNANIMOUS IN THEIR SUPPORT OF KHOMEINI GOVERNMENT. IN
THE FIRST PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS IN 1980, HE SAYS, NINETY SIX
PERCENT OF THE VOTES WENT TO CANDIDATES WHO WERE OPPOSED TO A
THEOCRATIC SYSTEM.
TO CONSOLIDATE THEIR POWER, THE KHOMEINI FORCES CREATED AN
ISLAMIC CONSTITUTION THAT STRUCTURED THE STATE ON THE BASIS OF
THE PRINCIPLE OF VELAYAT-E FAQIH -- RULE BY JURISPRUDENCE --
WHICH VESTED THE FINAL AUTHORITY IN THE HANDS OF THE RELIGIOUS
LEADER.
UNDER THIS SYSTEM, THE CLERICAL ELITE GOVERNED THE COUNTRY RATHER
THAN THE POPULARLY ELECTED LEADERS. THIS SYSTEM, WHICH
EMPHASIZES THE CITIZENS' OBLIGATIONS UNDER ISLAM RATHER THAN
THEIR RIGHTS TO CIVIL LIBERTIES, HAS BEEN CONTINUOUSLY CHALLENGED
BY LIBERALS AND MODERATE CLERGY.
IN ITS HANDLING OF FOREIGN AFFAIRS, THE REVOLUTIONARY GOVERNMENT
REJECTED WESTERN INFLUENCES AND TOOK A HOSTILE POSTURE AGAINST
THE UNITED STATES, WHICH IT BLAMED FOR INTERFERENCE IN IRAN
DURING THE SHAH'S RULE.
PROFESSOR HOUSHANG AMIRAHAMADI OF RUTGERS UNIVERSITY SAYS THE
POLICIES ADOPTED BY THE IRANIAN REVOLUTIONARIES CLASHED WITH
DOMESTIC AND INTERNATIONAL REALITIES.
// AMIRAHAMADI ACT //
REVOLUTIONARIES ARE DREAMERS AND THEY ALWAYS COME WITH A UTOPIA
IN MIND AND THEN THE REALITY SETS IN AND THEY INCREASINGLY
COMPROMISE UNTIL THEY LARGELY GO BACK TO SQUARE ONE (THE
BEGINNING). AND THAT'S ALMOST SOMETHING THAT HAS HAPPENED IN
IRAN ECONOMICALLY SPEAKING, ALTHOUGH THAT THE SQUARE ONE IS MORE
IDEOLOGICAL AS OPPOSED TO MATERIAL.
// END ACT //
FOLLOWING THE DEATH OF AYATOLLAH KHOMEINI IN 1989, THE MOUNTING
SOCIAL, POLITICAL, AND ECONOMIC PROBLEMS AT HOME AND THE
REALITIES OF INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS BLUNTED IRAN'S
REVOLUTIONARY MOOD. THE MOVEMENT FOR CHANGE STRONGLY ASSERTED
ITSELF IN MAY 1997 WITH THE LANDSLIDE ELECTION OF THE MODERATE
PRESIDENT MOHAMMAD KHATAMI ON A REFORM MANDATE.
PROFESSOR RUHOLLAH RAMAZANI OF THE UNIVERSITY OF VIRGINIA CALLS
THE 1997 ELECTION A TURNING POINT IN IRAN'S HISTORY. HE SAYS IT
WAS IN STARK CONTRAST WITH PREVIOUS REVOLUTIONARY MOVEMENTS IN
IRAN, INCLUDING THE INITIAL PHASE OF THE ISLAMIC REVOLUTION OF
1979, WHERE THE QUEST FOR INDEPENDENCE FROM FOREIGN DOMINANCE
OVERSHADOWED THE DEMANDS FOR CIVIL LIBERTIES AT HOME.
// RAMAZANI ACT //
I BELIEVE THAT THE PRESIDENCY OF SAYED MOHAMMAD KHATAMI MARKS
THE FIRST INSTANCE IN IRANIAN HISTORY WHEN A POPULARLY ELECTED
LEADER IS TRYING TO REDRESS THE HISTORICAL IMBALANCE OF
PRIORITIES IN THE POLITICAL PROCESS BETWEEN THE PRINCIPLES OF
INDEPENDENCE FROM FOREIGN DOMINATION AND DOMESTIC WANT OF
FREEDOM. THE REASON FOR THIS IS UNPRECEDENTED SHIFT, OR
POTENTIAL SHIFT, IS IMPORTANT TO UNDERSTAND.
// END OF ACT //
HE SAYS THE MOVEMENT FOR CHANGE UNDER PRESIDENT KHATAMI PROMOTES
LIBERTY AT HOME AND PEACE ABROAD, A NOTION HE DESCRIBES AS THE
"DEMOCRATIC PEACE."
HOWEVER, DESPITE HIS COMMITMENT TO DEMOCRATIC CHANGES, IRANIAN
ANALYSTS SAY PRESIDENT KHATAMI LACKS THE POWER TO GET THEM
ADOPTED. HE IS CRIPPLED BY A SYSTEM WHERE THE PRESIDENT HOLDS
THE TOP ELECTED POST BUT NOT THE HIGHEST EXECUTIVE POWER. HE
LACKS THE AUTHORITY OF THE SUPREME RELIGIOUS LEADER, AYATOLLAH
ALI KHAMENEI, WHO ALONG WITH HIS CONSERVATIVE ALLIES CONTROLS
MOST OF THE LEVERS OF POWER, INCLUDING THE PARLIAMENT, THE
JUDICIARY, THE ARMY AND THE SECURITY FORCES.
WATCHERS OF IRANIAN POLITICAL SCENE BELIEVE THAT THE FUTURE OF
IRAN WILL BE DECIDED BY THE OUTCOME OF THE ONGOING TUG-OF-WAR
BETWEEN THE MODERATES, ARRAYED BEHIND THE PRESIDENT, AND THE
CONSERVATIVES WHO CONTROL THE STATE INSTITUTIONS.
A LEADING BRITISH EXPERT ON IRAN, PROFESSOR EDMUND HERZIG OF
UNIVERSITY OF MANCHESTER, SAYS THERE ARE TWO POSSIBLE SCENARIOS
FOR IRAN.
// HERZIG ACT //
FIRST OF ALL THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF GROWING POLARIZATION,
THAT THE REFORMIST WING AND THE CONSERVATIVE WING COULD BECOME
MORE DEEPLY SPLIT AND YOU CAN GET A REAL RIFT OR SCHISM OPENING
UP WITHIN THE REGIME BETWEEN THE CONSERVATIVE AND THE REFORMIST
FORCES. ON THE OTHER HAND, THERE IS ANOTHER SCENARIO WHICH IS
THE NEED TO KEEP THE REGIME TOGETHER AND THE NEED TO MAINTAIN
SOME KIND OF UNITED FRONT STRONG ENOUGH TO PERSUADE THE MODERATES
ON BOTH WINGS TO TRY TO FORM SOME KIND OF COALITION OR ALLIANCE
TO COME TOGETHER IN THE CENTER OF IRANIAN POLITICS AND TO
MARGINALIZE THE MORE EXTREME ELEMENTS OR RADICAL ELEMENTS ON BOTH
WINGS.
// END ACT //
MR. HERZIG BELIEVES THAT THE SECOND SCENARIO IS LIKELY TO
PREVAIL.
ANALYSTS SAY LOCAL ELECTIONS SCHEDULED FOR LATER THIS MONTH (FEB
26) AND NEXT YEAR'S ELECTIONS TO THE MAJLIS, OR PARLIAMENT, MAY
HELP BREAK IRAN'S POLITICAL DEADLOCK, BUT THEY ALSO SAY ANY
CHANGE IN IRAN'S SITUATION IS GOING TO BE SLOW AND INCREMENTAL.
(SIGNED)
NEB/AJ/KL
05-Feb-99 4:33 PM EST (2133 UTC)
NNNN
Source: Voice of America
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