DATE=2/3/99
TYPE=ENGLISH PROGRAMS FEATURE
NUMBER=7-31376
TITLE=REVOLUTION AND REFORM IN IRAN
BYLINE=JUDITH LATHAM
TELEPHONE=619-3464
DATELINE=WASHINGTON
EDITOR=AL PESSIN
CONTENT = (TAPE CUTS IN AUDIO SERVICES)
INTRO: IRAN'S ISLAMIC REVOLUTION WILL BE 20 YEARS OLD ON
FEBRUARY 11, AND CELEBRATIONS IN IRAN HAVE ALREADY
BEGUN. THE ANNIVERSARY COMES AS MODERATE POLITICAL
FORCES UNDER THE LEADERSHIP OF PRESIDENT MOHAMMED
KHATAMI [HOH-TAH-MEE] CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE FOR INFLUENCE
AGAINST CONSERVATIVE MUSLIM CLERICS, WHO REMAIN FIRMLY
IN POWER. V-O-A'S JUDITH LATHAM HAS TALKED WITH SEVERAL
EXPERTS ABOUT THE POLITICS OF THE ISLAMIC REVOLUTION, 20
YEARS LATER. HERE'S ___ WITH A REPORT.
TEXT: IRAN'S ONGOING POLITICAL EVOLUTION HIT A NOTEWORTHY
MILESTONE IN THE RUN-UP TO THE 20TH ANNIVERSARY. UNDER
PRESSURE FROM THE PRESIDENT, THE DIRECTOR OF IRANIAN
INTELLIGENCE OPENLY CONFESSED THAT MEMBERS OF HIS
MINISTRY WERE RESPONSIBLE FOR FIVE MURDERS. THE DEAD
WERE CRITICS OF THE MUSLIM CLERGYMEN WHO RULE IRAN. IT
WAS A MOMENT OF POLITICAL VICTORY FOR PRESIDENT
KHATAMI'S REFORMISTS. THOMAS STAUFFER, AUTHOR OF
NUMEROUS WRITINGS ON IRAN, SAYS THE UNPRECEDENTED
CONFESSION IS PARTLY THE RESULT OF GROWING PUBLIC
PRESSURE FOR MORE PLURALISM, BEYOND WHAT THE RULING
CLERICS CURRENTLY ALLOW.
TAPE: CUT ONE -- STAUFFER (0:17)
"THE PRESS IS SURPRISINGLY FREE. THE COUNTRY BY THIRD
WORLD STANDARDS IS SURPRISINGLY DEMOCRATIC. AND THE
FACT THAT [PRESIDENT] KHATAMI WAS ABLE EVEN TO MOVE IN
THE DIRECTION OF CALLING THE INTELLIGENCE SERVICE TO
ACCOUNT IS ITSELF SYMPTOMATIC OF THE IMPROVED DEMOCRATIC
BALANCE IN THE COUNTRY."
TEXT: MR. STAUFFER SAYS 20 YEARS AGO SUCH AN ADMISSION WOULD
HAVE BEEN UNTHINKABLE. BUT THE REASON FOR THE CHANGE IS
CLEAR. IN 1997, PRESIDENT KHATAMI WAS ELECTED ON A
REFORMIST PLATFORM WITH MORE THAN 70 PERCENT OF THE
VOTE. WITH SUCH LARGE NUMBERS, HIS SUPPORTERS ARE
INEVITABLY CREATING PRESSURE FOR CHANGE.
IRANIAN HISTORY PROFESSOR EVAND ABRAHAMIAN (AIR-VAHND
AY-BRAH-HAY-MEE-YAN] OF THE CITY UNIVERSITY OF NEW YORK
SAYS PRESIDENT'S KHATAMI'S HANDLING OF THE ASSASINATION
INCIDENT REFLECTS A DELICATE BALANCING ACT.
TAPE: CUT TWO -- ABRAHAMIAN (0:29)
"IF HE CAN PUNISH SUCH ACTIVITIES AND CLEARLY SHOW THAT
THIS IS NOT TOLERABLE BEHAVIOR, AND IN THE PROCESS BRING
THE IMPORTANT MINISTRY OF INTELLIGENCE UNDER HIS OWN
CONTROL OR [THAT] OF THE PEOPLE HE TRUSTS, THAT WOULD
SERVE TWO FUNCTIONS. ONE, IT WOULD PROTECT HIMSELF
POLITICALLY. IT WOULD ALSO SHOW TO THE PUBLIC, THE
CONSTITUTENCY THAT VOTED FOR HIM, THAT HE IS SERIOUS
ABOUT PROTECTING INDIVIDUAL LIBERTIES."
TEXT: PUSHING AGAINST THE REFORM MOVEMENT ARE THE MUSLIM
CLERICS WHO FOLLOW AYATOLLAH KHAMENE'I, THE GUARDIAN, OR
SUPREME LEADER. THEY HOLD THE BULK OF POLITICAL POWER
IN IRAN THROUGH THEIR CONTROL OF FINANCES AND THE
MILITARY AND POLICE FORCES. AND THEY ADHERE TO THE
ISLAMIC TEACHINGS OF MODERN IRAN'S FOUNDER, THE
AYATOLLAH KHOMENI.
THE DIRECTOR OF THE FOUNDATION FOR IRANIAN STUDIES IN
WASHINGTON,
D-C, MAHNAZ AFKHAMI [MAH-NAHZ AF-KAH-MEE] SAYS THAT
LIMITS WHAT PRESIDENT KHATAMI CAN DO, IN SPITE OF HIS
POPULARITY.
TAPE: CUT THREE -- AFKHAMI (0:44)
"THE WAY THE CONSTITUTION IS STRUCTURED IS SUCH THAT IT
DOES NOT ALLOW VERY MUCH FLEXIBILITY. THERE IS REALLY
VERY LITTLE THAT CAN BE DONE TO BRING THE COUNTRY CLOSER
TO WHAT THE PEOPLE WANT AND WHAT THE MORE REFORMIST
GROUPS WANT, EXCEPT TO BREAK THE STRUCTURES, THAT IS TO
BREAK THE FUNDAMENTAL RULE OF THE "VALI," OR THE
GUARDIAN. EVERYTHING DEPENDS ON THE "VALI," WHICH IS
THE GUARDIAN OF THE PEOPLE, AND HIS POWER COMES FROM
GOD, NOT FROM THE PEOPLE, AND HE HAS THE FINAL SAY. AND
THERE IS REALLY NO WAY THAT ONE CAN MAKE ANY SUBSTANTIAL
CHANGES WITHOUT BREAKING THE UNDERLYING STRUCTURE, DOING
AWAY WITH THE GOVERNMENT OF THEOCRATS, INSTEAD OF THE
GOVERNMENT OF THE PEOPLE."
TEXT: NO ONE EXPECTS THAT TO HAPPEN IMMEDIATELY. BUT
PROFESSOR EVAND ABRAHAMIAN (AIR-VAHND
AY-BRAH-HAY-MEE-YAN], OF THE CITY UNIVERSITY OF NEW
YORK, SAYS IT MAY NOT BE VERY LONG BEFORE THE REFORM
MOVEMENT CAN TRANSLATE ITS POPULARITY INTO AT LEAST SOME
MORE POLITICAL POWER.
TAPE: CUT FOUR -- ABRAHAMIAN (0:51)
"WHEN YOU GET A LANDSLIDE VICTORY LIKE 70 PERCENT OF THE
ELECTORATE SUPPORTING YOU, THAT GIVES A GREAT DEAL OF
LEGITIMACY, ESPECIALLY SINCE THIS IS A REVOLUTION BASED
ON POPULAR SUPPORT. IN TERMS OF INSTITUTIONS, IT
OBVIOUSLY DOES NOT HAVE THE STRENGTH OF THE
CONSERVATIVES WHO CONTROL THE JUDICIARY, THE SUPREME
COURT, THE COUNCIL OF GUARDIANS, THE REVOLUTIONARY
GUARDS. BUT IT'S STILL EARLY TO JUDGE THE LONG-TERM
STRENGTH OF THE LIBERALS. AND WHEN THE NEXT "MAJLIS"
[PARLIAMENTARY] ELECTIONS COME IN TWO YEARS TIME, THAT'S
WHEN OF COURSE THEY WILL TRY TO CHANNEL THEIR POPULAR
SUPPORT INTO AN INSTITUTION, THE "MAJLIS," IN WHICH CASE
OF COURSE THEY WOULD CONTROL NOT ONLY THE PRESIDENCY BUT
ALSO THE LEGISLATURE."
TEXT: THE UNITED STATES HAS EXPRESSED INTEREST IN IMPROVING
RELATIONS WITH PRESIDENT KHATAMI'S GOVERNMENT,
PARTICULARLY ECONOMIC RELATIONS, IN PART TO BOLSTER HIS
REFORM MOVEMENT. BUT PROFESSOR ABRAHAMIAN SAYS THE
UNITED STATES NEEDS TO BE CAUTIOUS IN ITS SUPPORT FOR
MODERATE FORCES IN IRAN.
TAPE: CUT FIVE -- ABRAHAMIAN (0:47)
"I THINK THE BEST THING THE U-S CAN DO IS KEEP ITS
DISTANCE FOR THE TIME BEING. ESPECIALLY NOT TO BE
TEMPTED TO TRY TO IMPROVE TRADE AND ECONOMIC RELATIONS.
THIS COULD BE MISUNDERSTOOD VERY BADLY IN IRAN, BOTH BY
THE PUBLIC AND BY THE DIE-HARD CLERICS. BY THE PUBLIC,
IT WOULD BE MISSUNDERSTOOD, IN THAT THEY WOULD SEE THAT
THE U-S IS ONLY INTERESTED IN THE ALMIGHTY DOLLAR AND IS
NOT INTERESTED IN QUESTIONS OF HUMAN RIGHTS. FOR THE
DIE-HARD CONSERVATIVES, IT WOULD ACTUALLY PROVIDE THEM
WITH THE AMMUNITION THAT WE CAN ASSASSINATE THE PRESS
AND AT THE SAME TIME STRETCH OUT A HAND TO THE WEST FOR
ECONOMIC TRADE."
TEXT: PROFESSOR ABRAHAMIAN AND OTHER EXPERTS BELIEVE THE MOST
HELPFUL THING THE WEST CAN DO TO SUPPORT THE FORCES OF
REFORM IN IRAN IS TO ENCOURGE NON-GOVERNMENTAL ELEMENTS,
BOTH INSIDE AND OUTSIDE THE COUNTRY, THAT ARE PUSHING
FOR HUMAN RIGHTS AND FREEDOM OF EXPRESSION.
-0-
03-Feb-99 8:44 AM EST (1344 UTC)
NNNN
Source: Voice of America
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