DATE=1/14/99
TYPE=BACKGROUND REPORT
NUMBER=5-42367
TITLE=DIVIDED IRAN
BYLINE= ED WARNER
DATELINE= WASHINGTON
CONTENT=
VOICED AT:
INTRODUCTION: AS THE 20TH ANNIVERSARY OF THE ISLAMIC REVOLUTION
APPROACHES IN FEBRUARY, IRAN'S FATE IS UNDECIDED. IT IS
PRESENTLY TORN BETWEEN A CLERICAL FACTION LOYAL TO THAT
REVOLUTION AND REFORMERS TRYING TO PURSUE MORE MODERATE POLICIES.
V-O-A'S ED WARNER REPORTS SOME OBSERVATIONS ON DIVIDED IRAN AND
WHAT MAY LIE AHEAD.
TEXT: THE NEWS WAS STARTLING, EVEN THOUGH EVERY DAY BRINGS SOME
SURPRISING DEVELOPMENT IN IRAN. THE DIRECTOR OF IRANIAN
INTELLIGENCE ADMITTED MEMBERS OF HIS MINISTRY WERE RESPONSIBLE
FOR THE MURDER OF FIVE CRITICS OF THE REGIME.
THIS UNPRECEDENTED CONFESSION IS THE RESULT OF GROWING PUBLIC
PRESSURE FOR MORE FREEDOM AND DEMOCRACY, SAYS THOMAS STAUFFER,
AUTHOR OF NUMEROUS WRITINGS ON IRAN:
/// STAUFFER ACT ///
THE PRESS IS SURPRISINGLY FREE. THE COUNTRY BY THIRD
WORLD STANDARDS IS SURPRISINGLY DEMOCRATIC. AND THE
FACT THAT [PRESIDENT MOHAMMAD] KHATAMI WAS ABLE EVEN TO
MOVE IN THE DIRECTION OF CALLING THE INTELLIGENCE
SERVICE TO ACCOUNT IS ITSELF SYMPTOMATIC OF THE IMPROVED
DEMOCRATIC BALANCE IN THE COUNTRY.
/// END ACT ///
MR. STAUFFER SAYS 20 YEARS AGO, SUCH AN ADMISSION WOULD HAVE BEEN
UNTHINKABLE. THE FORCES BEHIND PRESIDENT KHATAMI, WHO WAS
ELECTED IN 1997 WITH MORE THAN 70 PERCENT OF THE VOTE, ARE
CREATING INTENSE PRESSURE FOR CHANGE.
ASSAD HOMAYOUN, AN IRANIAN OPPOSITION LEADER IN THE UNITED
STATES, SAYS POPULAR SENTIMENT IS CLEAR:
/// FIRST HOMAYOUN ACT ///
THE FEAR IS GONE. THE PEOPLE DEMAND MORE AND MORE. A
CONFRONTATION IS INEVITABLE. THEY WILL PUSH FOR MORE
REFORM, MORE CHANGE AND ALSO THE DISMANTLING OF CLERICAL
POWER.
/// END ACT ///
BUT MR. HOMAYOUN SAYS CHANGE MAY NOT BE COMING FAST ENOUGH FOR
AN IMPATIENT PEOPLE. IT IS HELD UP BY THE NATION'S SPIRITUAL
LEADER, AYATOLLAH ALI KHAMENEI, WHO HAS FAR MORE POWER UNDER THE
IRANIAN CONSTITUTION THAN THE PRESIDENT:
/// SECOND HOMAYOUN ACT ///
MR. KHATAMI IS PRESIDENT, BUT MR. KHAMENEI HOLDS THE
POWER OF THE ECONOMY, POWER OF INTELLIGENCE, POWER OF
THE ARMED FORCES. THIS IS THE PROBLEM. MR. KHATAMI HAS
THE POWER OF 20-MILLION VOTES, BUT HE HAS TO EXERCISE
HIS POWER. HE IS HESITATING.
/// END ACT ///
MR. HOMAYOUN SAYS THE PRESIDENT SHOULD ASSERT HIS POWER BY
DISMISSING THE DIRECTOR OF INTELLIGENCE, BUT THAT WOULD PROVOKE
THE KIND OF BITTER CLASH WITH THE CLERICAL FORCES MR. KHATAMI IS
TRYING TO AVOID.
HE IS ENGAGED IN AN INTRICATE POLITICAL MANEUVER: THE CLERICS
SHUT DOWN A NEWSPAPER; HE ISSUES A LICENSE TO START ANOTHER. THEY
FORCE ONE OF HIS SUPPORTERS OUT OF OFFICE; HE FINDS THE MAN
ANOTHER POST.
JEFFREY KEMP, DIRECTOR OF REGIONAL STRATEGIC PROGRAMS AT THE
NIXON CENTER, WRITES THAT UNTIL PRESIDENT KHATAMI AND HIS
SUPPORTERS "GAIN CONTROL OF THE KEY INSTRUMENTS OF POWER, HIS
PROPOSED REFORMS AND EVEN HIS TENURE IN OFFICE COULD BE IN
JEOPARDY."
THOMAS STAUFFER SAYS THE OPPOSITION FORCES SHOULD NOT BE
UNDERESTIMATED:
/// STAUFFER ACT ///
THERE ARE THE IDEOLOGUES WHO ARE SO DEEPLY DISTRUSTFUL
OF THE UNITED STATES THAT THEY WILL NOT DEAL WITH US.
THERE ARE GROUPS WHO FOR A VARIETY OF REASONS FIND IT
VERY CONVENIENT TO OPPOSE REFORM. AND THEN THERE ARE
SOME GROUPS WITHIN THE RELIGIOUS COMMUNITY WHO HAVE VERY
REAL VESTED INTERESTS IN OPPOSING ANY KIND OF ECONOMIC
REFORM. OR ANY POLITICAL REFORM THAT MIGHT LEAD TO
ECONOMIC REFORM.
/// END ACT ///
DO NOT TAKE ALL THE RELIGIOUS ZEAL AT FACE VALUE, SAYS MR.
STAUFFER. IT IS OFTEN SERVES AS A COVER FOR MATERIAL INTERESTS.
VAST FOUNDATIONS CONTROL MUCH OF THE IRANIAN ECONOMY, AND THOSE
WHO PROFIT FROM THEM DO NOT WANT THEIR PRIVILEGES THREATENED BY
A FREE ECONOMY.
MR. STAUFFER SAYS THE DECLINE IN OIL PRICES, WHILE HURTING MOST
IRANIANS, HAS STRENGTHENED THE FOUNDATIONS, WHICH ARE INVOLVED IN
OTHER KINDS OF BUSINESS. IT IS THEIR POWER, ABOVE ALL, THAT MUST
BE CONFRONTED IF IRAN IS TO ACHIEVE A CIVIL SOCIETY AND THE RULE
OF LAW. (SIGNED)
NEB/EW/WTW
14-Jan-99 5:44 PM EST (2244 UTC)
NNNN
Source: Voice of America
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