DATE=12/22/98
TYPE=BACKGROUND REPORT
NUMBER=5-42211
TITLE=YEARENDER: IRANIAN POLITICS '98
BYLINE=ALI JALALI
DATELINE=WASHINGTON
CONTENT=
NOT VOICED:
INTRO: 1998 SAW DEEPENING POLARIZATION OF POLITICS IN IRAN AS
THE REFORMIST PRESIDENT MOHAMMAD KHATAMI FACED GROWING OPPOSITION
FROM CONSERVATIVES ALIGNED WITH THE SUPREME RELIGIOUS LEADER
AYATOLLAH KHAMENEI. V-O-A'S ALI JALALI LOOKS AT THE FACTIONAL
POLITICS IN IRAN AND THEIR POTENTIAL INFLUENCE ON THE COUNTRY'S
FUTURE DEVELOPMENTS.
TEXT: THE YEAR, WHICH BEGAN WITH POSITIVE SIGNS OF SOCIAL AND
POLITICAL CHANGES IN IRAN, ENDED WITH SEVERAL INCIDENTS OF
VIOLENCE. IN RECENT WEEKS (SINCE NOVEMBER 20), FIVE DISSIDENT
WRITERS AND POLITICAL FIGURES HAVE BEEN MURDERED. A SHADOWY
ISLAMIST GROUP HAS CLAIMED RESPONSIBILITY FOR THE KILLINGS.
THE VIOLENCE CAME AMID AN INTENSE POWER STRUGGLE BETWEEN RIVAL
FACTIONS THAT DOMINATED THE IRANIAN POLITICAL SCENE THROUGHOUT
THE YEAR. THE SHOWDOWN PITTED PRO-KHATAMI REFORMISTS AGAINST
RIGHT-WING CLERICS WHO RALLIED BEHIND THE RELIGIOUS LEADER
AYATULLAH KHAMENEI.
DRAWING ON THEIR CONTROL OF MOST OF THE STATE INSTITUTIONS --
INCLUDING THE PARLIAMENT, THE JUDICIARY, THE ARMY AND THE
SECURITY FORCES -- THE CONSERVATIVES TRIED TO THWART THE GROWING
CAMPAIGN FOR DEMOCRATIC CHANGES. THIS LEFT THE MODERATES
FIGHTING FOR THEIR REFORM THEMES IN THE EMERGING INDEPENDENT
PRESS AND THROUGH POPULAR RALLIES HELD ACROSS THE COUNTRY.
AS THE YEAR WORE ON, THE CONSERVATIVE-CONTROLLED JUDICIARY MOVED
TO CURB PRESS FREEDOM, BANNING LIBERAL PAPERS AND SENDING SOME
JOURNALISTS TO JAIL. MEANWHILE, HARD-LINE VIGILANTE GROUPS
(ANSAR-E HEZBOLLAH) CLASHED WITH PRO-REFORM DEMONSTRATORS IN THE
STREETS OF TEHRAN AND ELSEWHERE.
GEOFFREY KEMP, THE DIRECTOR OF REGIONAL STRATEGIC PROGRAMS AT THE
NIXON CENTER, HAS RECENTLY VISITED IRAN AND SAYS THE
CONSERVATIVES HAVE MANAGED TO SLOW THE PACE OF REFORMS IN THE
COUNTRY. BUT HE SAYS THE SITUATION CAN CHANGE IN THE FUTURE.
// KEMP ACT //
I THINK THE POWER STRUGGLE IN THE SHORT RUN CAN GO EITHER WAY.
THAT IS TO SAY, IN THE NEXT YEAR, THE CONSERVATIVES MAY BE ABLE
TO CONSOLIDATE MORE POWER IN THEIR HANDS AND UNDERMINE AND
ESSENTIALLY NEUTRALIZE MR. KHATAMI'S EFFORTS AT THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A CIVIL SOCIETY. IN THE LONG-RUN, I THINK THE PROBABILITY
THAT THE CONSERVATIVES CAN HOLD ON TO POWER ARE VERY LIMITED,
GIVEN THE DEMOGRAPHY OF IRAN, THE ECONOMY OF IRAN, THE
ASPIRATIONS OF THE IRANIAN PEOPLE, PARTICULARLY THOSE UNDER THE
AGE OF 30, IRAN'S FOREIGN RELATIONS AND THE INCREASING ACCESS THE
IRANIANS HAVE TO THE INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY.
// END ACT //
IN REMARKS DURING A RECENT STUDENTS RALLY IN TEHRAN (DECEMBER 7),
PRESIDENT KHATAMI COMPLAINED THAT THE CONSERVATIVES AND
TRADITIONALISTS ARE BLOCKING REFORMS IN THE ISLAMIC REPUBLIC.
HOWEVER, THE PRESIDENT URGED THE STUDENTS TO BE PATIENT AND
TOLERANT.
ANALYSTS OF IRANIAN POLITICS NOTE THAT DESPITE THE SHARP POLICY
DIFFERENCES, FEW PEOPLE IN IRAN FAVOR VIOLENCE AS A WAY TO ATTAIN
THEIR GOALS. THEREFORE, THE POLICY OF CHOICE FOR REFORMERS, THEY
SAY, HAS BEEN A SLOW BUT STEADY MOVE FOR INCREMENTAL GAINS. THE
FUTURE OF THE POLICY, THEY UNDERSCORE, HINGES ON CHANGES IN THE
MAKE-UP OF THE PARLIAMENT AND THE AUTHORITY OF THE COUNCIL OF
GUARDIANS -- A CONSERVATIVE-DOMINATED GROUP SCREENING CANDIDATES
RUNNING FOR PUBLIC OFFICE. THE NEXT PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS -- A
LITTLE OVER A YEAR AWAY -- ARE SEEN AS A POTENTIAL TURNING POINT
FOR THE REFORM AGENDA.
PROFESSOR BAHMAN BAKTIARI OF UNIVERSITY OF MAINE HAS STUDIED THE
LEGISLATIVE POLITICS IN IRAN AND VISITED THE COUNTRY IN 1998. HE
SAYS THE UPCOMING LOCAL ELECTIONS IN FEBRUARY MAY START A PROCESS
OF GRADUAL EROSION OF THE CONSERVATIVES' GRIP ON LEGISLATIVE
POWER.
// BAKTIARI ACT //
THESE LOCAL ELECTIONS ARE GOING TO DECENTRALIZE THE SYSTEM IN
IRAN SIGNIFICANTLY. FIRST OF ALL, WE DON'T KNOW WHAT TYPE OF
PEOPLE ARE GOING TO BE ELECTED, BUT THE FACT THAT ONE MILLION
PEOPLE ARE GOING TO BE THE CANDIDATES, IT IS GOING TO CREATE A
MOMENTUM THAT IS GOING TO BE LEADING INTO PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS
IN THE FUTURE. SO, THE MOST IMPORTANT STRATEGY FOR KHATAMI IS TO
KEEP THE PEOPLE INVOLVED.
// END ACT //
MANY OBSERVERS OF IRANIAN POLITICS AGREE A REFORM-ORIENTED PUBLIC
MOVEMENT IS RISING ABOVE THE FACTIONAL BICKERING INSIDE THE
COUNTRY. THE MOVEMENT, THEY SAY WILL PLAY A BALANCING ROLE IN
PROMOTING DEMOCRATIC PARTICIPATION IN IRAN. PROFESSOR BAKTIARI
SAYS THE PROCESS IS GOING TO BE A GRADUAL MOVE TO AN INCLUSIVE
FORM OF GOVERNANCE IN IRAN.
// BAKTIARI ACT //
IN THE ISLAMIC REPUBLIC OF IRAN, THERE IS A MOMENTUM FOR
INCREASING POLITICAL PARTICIPATION. NOW, COULD THAT LEAD TO
FORMATION OF POLITICAL PARTIES, PLURALISM, THAT'S A DIFFERENT
QUESTION. BUT THERE IS NO DOUBT EVEN THE HARDLINERS CANNOT
STAY OPPOSED TO THAT, THERE IS A MOMENTUM TOWARD POLITICAL
PARTICIPATION AND THEY WANT TO HAVE THEIR PEOPLE INVOLVED.
// END ACT //
EARLIER THIS MONTH, SUPPORTERS OF MR. KHATAMI ANNOUNCED THE
FORMATION OF A NEW, REFORMIST POLITICAL PARTY -- THE ISLAMIC IRAN
PARTICIPATION FRONT. THE FRONT HAS ALSO BEGAN PUBLISHING A
NEWSPAPER.
// BEGIN OPT // HOWEVER, WESTERN OBSERVERS SAY, THE DETERIORATING
STATE OF THE IRANIAN ECONOMY WILL HAVE A MAJOR INFLUENCE OVER THE
FACTIONAL POLITICS. THE STRATEGY FOR ECONOMIC RECOVERY HAS BEEN
ONE OF THE MOST CONTENTIOUS ISSUES IN THE DEBATE BETWEEN
REFORMIST SUPPORTERS OF PRESIDENT KHATAMI AND THE CONSERVATIVE
FACTIONS THAT CONTROL MOST OF THE POWER CENTERS IN THE COUNTRY.
DR. KEMP SAYS DIFFERENCES OVER ECONOMIC POLICY CUT ACROSS THE
FACTIONAL LINES
// OPT KEMP ACT //
THE FACT OF THE MATTER IS NO MATTER WHO IS IN CHARGE, THE
CONSERVATIVES OR THE MODERATES, THERE ARE CERTAIN FUNDAMENTALS
THAT HAVE TO BE ADDRESSED. FIRST, THE IRANIAN ECONOMY IS GROSSLY
MISMANAGED, SECONDLY, THERE IS A RAMPANT CORRUPTION, THIRDLY, THE
SUBSIDIES TO BASIC ITEMS SUCH AS PARTICULARLY FUEL AND FOOD ARE
GROSSLY DISTORTED THE REVENUE DISPERSION IN THE BUDGET, AND
FOURTHLY FALLING OIL PRICES REALLY REDUCES YOUR ABILITY TO INVEST
IN CAPITAL DEVELOPMENT FOR THE FUTURE.
// END ACT // END OPT //
ONE OF THE CASUALTIES OF THE ONGOING TUG OF WAR BETWEEN THE RIVAL
FACTIONS HAS BEEN CHANCES FOR IMPROVED U-S-IRANIAN RELATIONS.
PROSPECTS FOR BETTER TIES BLOSSOMED EARLY IN THE YEAR. BUT WHAT
MR. KEMP CALLS "THE TEHRAN SPRING" SOON GOT MIRED IN
INTRA-FACTIONAL DISPUTE.
// KEMP ACT //
IT IS NOW MUCH LESS LIKELY THAT THERE WILL BE ANY EARLY
BREAKTHROUGH IN U-S-IRANIAN RELATIONS. EVEN THE PEOPLE-TO-PEOPLE
DIALOGUE WHICH MR. KHATAMI HAS SPOKEN SO FERVENTLY AND SO
PASSIONATELY ABOUT HAS BEEN SETBACK AS RIGHT WING THUGS IN IRAN
INTIMIDATED AMERICAN TOURISTS AND PUT OUT NOMINAL DEATH THREATS
ON POTENTIAL AMERICAN VISITORS.
// END ACT //
MR. KEMP SAYS UNLESS PRESIDENT KHATAMI SHOWS THAT HE CAN OFFSET
THIS CHALLENGE AND PROVIDE THE NECESSARY SECURITY ENVIRONMENT TO
NURTURE FURTHER EYCHANGES, HOPES FOR AN IRANIAN-AMERICAN THAW MAY
FREEZE.
THIS COMING FEBRUARY IRAN WILL MARK THE TWENTIETH ANNIVERSARY OF
THE ISLAMIC REVOLUTION. THE ANNIVERSARY COMES AT A TIME WHEN A
STRONG REFORMIST MOVEMENT IS GAINING MOMENTUM IN THE ISLAMIC
REPUBLIC. ANALYSTS SAY, DESPITE THE SHORT-TERM SETBACKS THIS
YEAR, THE MOVEMENT IS EXPECTED TO LEAVE DEEP IMPRINTS ON THE
COUNTRY'S FUTURE POLITICAL LANDSCAPE. (SIGNED)
NEB/AJ/KL
22-Dec-98 1:43 PM EST (1843 UTC)
NNNN
Source: Voice of America
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