DATE=10/8/98
TYPE=BACKGROUND REPORT
NUMBER=5-41555
TITLE=IRAN / U-S RELATIONS: THE FUTURE
BYLINE=ELAINE JOHANSON
DATELINE=NEW YORK
CONTENT=
VOICED AT:
INTRO: IRAN'S REFORM-MINDED PRESIDENT MOHAMMAD KHATAMI RECENTLY
REJECTED A U-S OVERTURE FOR POLITICAL DIALOGUE AIMED AT MOVING
TOWARD NORMAL RELATIONS BETWEEN THE TWO COUNTRIES. EXPERTS
DISCUSSED THE SITUATION THIS WEEK (OCT. 7) IN NEW YORK AT THE
COUNCIL ON FOREIGN RELATIONS, A PRIVATE FOREIGN POLICY GROUP.
V-O-A CORRESPONDENT ELAINE JOHANSON REPORTS:
TEXT: MOST EXPERTS ON IRAN SEEM IMPRESSED WITH THE STYLE OF ITS
REFORMIST PRESIDENT. BUT THEY ALSO AGREE PRESIDENT KHATAMI'S
OPTIONS FOR RESTORING NORMALCY TO U-S / IRANIAN RELATIONS ARE
LIMITED BY BOTH POLITICAL REALITY AND ECONOMICS.
THE IRANIAN LEADER SAYS WASHINGTON HAS TO LIFT ECONOMIC SANCTIONS
AGAINST IRAN BEFORE ANY SERIOUS DIALOGUE CAN BEGIN. ANALYSTS ARE
NOT CONVINCED IT WILL BE THAT SIMPLE.
ELAINE SCIOLINO (SHIH-'LEE-NO) -- NEW YORK TIMES REPORTER AND AN
EXPERT ON IRAN -- BELIEVES IRAN IS NOT READY TO CONSIDER
DIPLOMATIC RELATIONS WITH THE UNITED STATES. SHE SAYS EVEN
ECONOMIC RELATIONS WILL BE SLOW IN DEVELOPING, AND WASHINGTON
WILL HAVE TO DO ALL THE WORK.
/// FIRST SCIOLINO ACT ///
I DON'T THINK ANYTHING IS GOING TO CHANGE IN IRAN'S
POLICY TOWARD THE UNITED STATES IN ANY WAY UNTIL THERE'S
SUBSTANTIAL AND CONCRETE MOVEMENT ON THE PART OF THE
UNITED STATES -- STARTING WITH A CHANGE IN THE PIPELINE
POLICY WHICH WILL ALLOW THE PIPELINE TO BE BUILT THROUGH
IRAN, AND THEN A LIFTING OF SANCTIONS. THE OIL MINISTRY
IS PARALYZED. THEY DON'T HAVE MUCH POWER. KHATAMI'S
ONE GREAT FAILING IS THAT HE IS NOT A MAN OF ECONOMICS
OR OF BUSINESS.
/// END ACT ///
WHETHER PRESIDENT KHATAMI CONCENTRATES ON ECONOMIC ISSUES OR
NOT, ANALYSTS SAY HIS POLITICAL FUTURE MAY DEPEND ON THEM. GARY
SICK, A WHITE HOUSE AIDE DURING THE 1979 IRAN HOSTAGE CRISIS,
NOTES IRANIAN OIL REVENUES THIS YEAR ARE DOWN 40 PERCENT. THIS
TRANSLATES INTO A 20 PERCENT LOSS OF NATIONAL REVENUES.
/// SICK ACT ///
KHATAMI IS GOING TO BE PRESSED ON THIS MORE THAN
ANYTHING ELSE. AND IT JUST DOESN'T AFFECT RELATIONS
WITH OUTSIDE OIL COMPANIES AND WHAT THEY CAN DO. THE
PRICE OF OIL AFFECTS EVERYTHING IN THE PERSIAN GULF.
KHATAMI MAY BE IN MORE TROUBLE BECAUSE OF THAT THAN HE
IS FROM ANY OF THE INTERNAL SNIPING ABOUT HIS REFORMS.
/// END ACT ///
THE UNITED STATES SEVERED RELATIONS WITH IRAN DURING THE ISLAMIC
REVOLUTION WHEN THE IRANIANS SEIZED THE U-S EMBASSY IN TEHRAN AND
HELD AMERICAN DIPLOMATS HOSTAGE.
NEW YORK TIMES REPORTER ELAINE SCIOLINO SAYS IRAN, UNDER
PRESIDENT KHATAMI, SEEMS TO BE TRYING TO CREEP BACK INTO THE FOLD
OF THE INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY. THE IRANIAN PRESIDENT MADE A
SPEECH AT THE UNITED NATIONS LAST MONTH THAT OBSERVERS CALLED
REMARKABLE FOR ITS CONCILIATORY TONE.
AT THE SAME TIME, MS. SCIOLINO POINTS OUT IRAN'S FOREIGN MINISTER
(KAMAL KHARAZZI) FAILED TO SHOW UP FOR A MEETING ON THE CONFLICT
IN AFGHANISTAN, BECAUSE U-S SECRETARY OF STATE MADELEINE ALBRIGHT
WAS PARTICIPATING:
/// SECOND SCIOLINO ACT ///
THE IRANIANS HAVE REALLY MOVED. THEY USE THE U-N IN A
WAY THEY DIDN'T IN THE EARLY YEARS OF THE IRAN-IRAQ WAR.
BUT IT'S AN EVOLVING ISSUE AND YOU KNOW (FOREIGN
MINISTER) KHARAZZI DIDN'T SHOW UP FOR THE SIX-PLUS-TWO
AFGHANISTAN MEETING. IT WAS TOO POLITICALLY DANGEROUS,
ONCE IT BECAME APPARENT IT WAS GOING TO BE PERCEIVED AS
A FIRST MEETING BETWEEN A FOREIGN MINISTER OF IRAN AND A
U-S SECRETARY OF STATE.
/// END ACT ///
IRAN AND THE UNITED STATES HAVE RECENTLY INCREASED CULTURAL
EXCHANGES, BUT BAD MEMORIES PERSIST ON BOTH SIDES. IRAN'S
AYATOLLAHS REMEMBER WASHINGTON'S UNWAVERING SUPPORT FOR IRAN'S
LAST SHAH. AMERICANS REMEMBER THE HOSTAGES AND THEIR 444 DAYS OF
CAPTIVITY.
MOST ANALYSTS BELIEVE U-S / IRANIAN RELATIONS WILL NOT BE
REPAIRED EASILY. (SIGNED)
NEB/NY/EJ/LSF/WTW
08-Oct-98 3:26 PM EDT (1926 UTC)
NNNN
Source: Voice of America
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