DATE=8/6/98
TYPE=BACKGROUND REPORT
NUMBER=5-41095
TITLE=KHATAMI ANNIVERSARY -- P 4: U-S - IRAN RELATIONS
BYLINE=ALI JALALI
DATELINE=WASHINGTON
CONTENT=
NOT VOICED:
INTRO: AUGUST 3RD MARKED THE FIRST ANNIVERSARY OF IRANIAN
PRESIDENT MOHAMMAD KHATAMI'S PRESIDENCY. AMONG THE HIGHLIGHTS OF
MR. KHATAMI'S FIRST YEAR IN OFFICE WERE THE CONCILIATORY GESTURES
HIS GOVERNMENT MADE TO THE AMERICAN PEOPLE. HOWEVER, NO MAJOR
IMPROVEMENT IN BI-LATERAL RELATIONS HAS BEEN ACHIEVED SO FAR.
(IN THIS LAST OF A FOUR-PART SERIES) V-O-A'S ALI JALALI EXAMINES
PROSPECTS FOR U-S-IRAN RELATIONSHIP.
TEXT: HOPES FOR A THAW IN RELATIONS BETWEEN THE UNITED STATES
AND IRAN SOARED ABOUT SIX MONTHS AGO, WHEN PRESIDENT CLINTON
REACTED POSITIVELY TO CALLS FROM PRESIDENT MOHAMMAD KHATAMI FOR A
DIALOGUE WITH THE AMERICAN PEOPLE.
HOWEVER, THE INITIAL EUPHORIA DIDN'T LAST LONG. FACED WITH STIFF
OPPOSITION FROM HARDLINE CONSERVATIVES, WHO CONTROL MOST OF THE
POWER CENTERS IN IRAN, PRESIDENT KHATAMI SLOWED DOWN THE MOVEMENT
FOR AN OPENING UP TO THE UNITED STATES.
WHILE THE TWO COUNTRIES ENGAGED IN A SERIES OF ACADEMIC AND
ATHLETIC EXCHANGES, OTHER DEVELOPMENTS SERVED TO INCREASE
TENSIONS BETWEEN THE TWO COUNTRIES, INCLUDING TEHRAN'S TESTING OF
A MEDIUM-RANGE MISSILE CONSIDERED TO BE A THREAT TO U-S ALLIES IN
THE REGION.
IRAN RESPONDED COOLLY TO STATEMENTS IN JUNE BY PRESIDENT CLINTON
AND SECRETARY OF STATE MADELEINE ALBRIGHT CALLING FOR A GENUINE
RECONCILIATION WITH THE ISLAMIC REPUBLIC AND A RETURN TO NORMAL
RELATIONS. THESE DEVELOPMENTS, SAYS PROFESSOR YERVAND ABRAHAMIAN
OF BARUCH COLLEGE IN NEW YORK, MARK A SETBACK IN THE PROCESS OF
OPENING A DIALOGUE BETWEEN THE TWO NATIONS.
// ABRAHAMIAN ACT //
I DON'T THINK AT THE PRESENT THERE IS MUCH PROSPECT (FOR
RECONCILIATION). I THINK THE ATMOSPHERE HAS (GOTTEN) BETTER WITH
THE LESS RHETORIC, LESS ATTACKS IN THE MEDIA, IN FACT EVEN TALKS
ACROSS THE CNN AND CONVERSATIONS, BUT IN TERMS OF CONCRETE
MEASURES I DON'T SEE MUCH HAPPENING, OR HAPPENING IN THE FUTURE.
// END ACT //
BUT SEVERAL AMERICAN EXPERTS WHO VISITED IRAN THIS YEAR AGREE
THAT, AMONG THE RULING ELITES IN TEHRAN, THE POLITICAL WILL STILL
EXISTS FOR OPENING A DIALOGUE WITH THE UNITED STATES. PROFESSOR
HOSHANG AMIR-AHMADI OF RUTGERS UNIVERSITY IN NEW JERSEY IS ONE OF
THOSE WHO HAS VISITED RECENTLY. HE SAYS THE ABSENCE OF A CLEAR
AND COHESIVE POLICY ON THE PART OF BOTH COUNTRIES REDUCES THE
RECONCILIATION PROCESS TO SPONTANEOUS ACTIONS. WHAT BOTH
COUNTRIES NEED, HE SAYS, IS A CONSISTENT, WELL THOUGHT-OUT
POLICY.
// AMIR-AHMADI ACT //
BOTH GOVERNMENTS ... HAVE DEVELOPED A REACTIVE POLICY TOWARD
EACH OTHER AS OPPOSED TO A PROACTIVE (POLICY), AND THEREFORE ON
NEITHER SIDE YOU HAVE A POLICY THAT IS COHERENT, THAT HAS A
BEGINNING AND AN END FOR THE STATE OF AFFAIRS IN MIND, NOR STAGES
IN THE MIDDLE. IT IS A POLICY THAT TAKES WHATEVER THAT COMES IN
AND TRIES TO MAKE THAT INTO SOMETHING AND JUMPS ON ANY
DEVELOPMENT THAT COMES AROUND AND MAKES IT TO STAND FOR A MEASURE
OF SOMETHING.
// END ACT //
AMBASSADOR ROSCOE SUDDARTH, PRESIDENT OF THE MIDDLE EAST
INSTITUTE IN WASHINGTON, WAS ONE OF THE U-S FOREIGN POLICY
EXPERTS WHO VISITED TEHRAN IN FEBRUARY AS PART OF AN UNOFFICIAL
EXCHANGE BETWEEN THE TWO NATIONS. HE SAYS DISAGREEMENTS IN BOTH
COUNTRIES OVER THE CONDITIONS FOR RESUMING NORMAL TIES HINDER
THE CHANCES FOR DIALOGUE. AMBASSADOR SUDDARTH SAYS BOTH SIDES
NEED TO MAKE SOME CHANGES.
// SUDDARTH ACT//
I THINK ON THE IRANIAN SIDE THERE HAS TO BE SOME KIND OF
CONSENSUS BETWEEN PRESIDENT KHATAMI AND THE SUPREME LEADER AND
THE OTHERS ABOUT THE DESIRABILITY OF REALLY PUSHING FOR BETTER
TIES WITH THE UNITED STATES. I THINK ON THE U-S SIDE THERE WON'T
BE ANYTHING TILL NOVEMBER BECAUSE OF THE ELECTIONS AND IRAN IS
JUST NOT A POPULAR ISSUE FOR CONGRESSMEN TO FACE THEIR OPPONENTS.
// END ACT //
WESTERN ANALYSTS NOTE THAT SUPPORT FOR IMPROVEMENT OF BI-LATERAL
TIES IN BOTH NATIONS COME FROM DIFFERENT CONSTITUENCIES. IN IRAN
THE SUPPORT MOSTLY COMES FROM THE PUBLIC, AND IN THE UNITED
STATES, FROM THE EXECUTIVE BRANCH. PROFESSOR AMIR-AHMADI SAYS,
THIS HAS TO BE CHANGED. HE SUGGESTS THAT THE CLINTON
ADMINISTRATION SHOULD GET THE U-S CONGRESS AND IRANIAN PARLIAMENT
(MAJLIS) INVOLVED IN THE RECONCILIATION EFFORTS. HE SAYS IT IS
IMPORTANT THAT THE UNITED STATES TRY TO INCLUDE IRANIAN
CONSERVATIVES IN THE RECONCILIATION EFFORTS.
// AMIR-AHMADI ACT //
THESE ARE THE PEOPLE THAT AMERICAN GOVERNMENT HAS LABELED
CONSERVATIVES, FUNDAMENTALISTS, ANTI-AMERICAN, AND AS A RESULT
HAVE CLOSED THE DOOR BEFORE STARTING ANYTHING WITH THEM FOR ANY
RAPPROCHEMENT. SO I BELIEVE THAT THIS PARTICULAR PROBLEM, OR
THIS PARTICULAR APPROACH HAS TO BE CORRECTED BEFORE A SIGNIFICANT
MOVEMENT TOWARD A POLITICAL DIALOGUE BETWEEN THE TWO COUNTRIES
CAN BEGIN.
// END ACT //
OTHER WESTERN ANALYSTS SUGGEST THAT THE CONSERVATIVE FACTIONS IN
IRAN SHOULD ALSO VOICE SOME SUPPORT FOR DIALOGUE WITH THE UNITED
STATES.
LOOKING AHEAD, WATCHERS OF IRANIAN POLITICS EMPHASIZE THAT
WASHINGTON MAY NEED TO TAKE A CLOSER LOOK AT THE DOMESTIC
POLITICS OF IRAN IN SHAPING THE U-S POLICY. ASSUMING THAT
PRESIDENT KHATAMI IS NOT POLITICALLY ABLE TO TAKE FURTHER STEPS,
THE ANALYSTS CALL FOR SOME SPECIFIC ACTIONS BY THE UNITED STATES
TO PAVE THE WAY FOR MORE TANGIBLE RESULTS IN RECONCILIATION
EFFORTS. (SIGNED)
NEB/AJ/KL
06-Aug-98 11:20 AM EDT (1520 UTC)
NNNN
Source: Voice of America
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