IRAN IS NEXT IN LINE
(Commentary by Ron Ben Yishai,
"Yediot Ahronot", May 29, 1998, pp.1,8)
The "first Islamic Bomb" that Pakistan took out of the closet yesterday
does not directly threaten Israel. Pakistan is keeping this weapon as a
deterrent against the great and more scientifically developed India -- and
will almost certainly not use it outside this context.
But what concerns Israel is the fact that, in less than one month, a
second Asian state has just "thumbed its nose" at the United States and
the rest of the world by conducting a nuclear weapons test.
Next in line to cross this threshold is North Korea, to be followed by
Iran -- two states already cooperating in the missile sphere and which,
given the current international and psychological climate, may also
cooperate in the nuclear field. In any event, if the Asian nuclear arms
race is not soon halted, the danger of a general nuclear holocaust on the
continent will be nearer. Even worse is the very likely possibility that
Iran -- and, in the future, Iraq or other Arab states -- could achieve
nuclear and ballistic missile capabilities faster than has been thus far
estimated by the West and Israel.
For the moment, the main practical danger is that China and Pakistan, and
possibly even India, may be tempted to sell knowledge and materials to
states with yet unproven nuclear capabilities -- in order to fund their
accelerated nuclear arms race. Still, intelligence assessments maintain
that Pakistan will refrain from selling Iran a prepared nuclear weapon or
even the knowledge and components critical for its production. Pakistan
has a militant Shi'ite minority which is periodically involved in bloody
riots with the Sunni majority. Iran is sympathetic to the Shi'ites, and
Pakistan is thus respectful, but suspicious of its neighbor to the west.
But Pakistan already sold Sunni Iraq (before the Gulf War) the knowledge
that enabled Saddam Hussein to enrich uranium and move to within 14 months
of the Bomb. China is already involved in constructing a nuclear reactor
in Iran, and no less active in attempts to sell ballistic missiles to
Syria and Iran.
The primary hope is that the United States and the West will use the
nuclear stalemate between India, Pakistan and China to force them -- by
way of harsh economic sanctions -- into signing and honoring the Nuclear
Non- Proliferation Treaty and the Comprehensive Test-Ban Treaty. These
three Asian countries now have an interest in signing these treaties since
they, just like the veteran nuclear powers, also want to preserve their
nuclear monopoly and prevent competition and threats from other Asian
states.
So the ball is now in American hands. If US efforts succeed and the
India-Pakistan nuclear arms race is halted, neither country will need the
massive resources required to fund it, and the temptation to share their
acquired knowledge will be reduced. But economic sanctions could be a
double-edged sword: Stopping aid to the starving economies of India and
Pakistan could push them to accelerate the sale of nuclear and missile
know-how to resource-rich states like Iran and, in the future, even Iraq.
.
=====================================================================
Information Division, Israel Foreign Ministry - Jerusalem
Mail all Queries to ask@israel-info.gov.il
URL: http://www.israel-mfa.gov.il
gopher://israel-info.gov.il
=====================================================================
Note: The translations of articles from the Hebrew press
are prepared by the Government Press Office
as a service to foreign journalists in Israel.
They express the views of the authors.
--------------------------------------------------------
|
NEWSLETTER
|
|
Join the GlobalSecurity.org mailing list
|
|
|
