DATE=4/14/98
TYPE=BACKGROUND REPORT
NUMBER=5-40048
TITLE=BEYOND DUAL CONTAINMENT
BYLINE= ED WARNER
DATELINE= WASHINGTON
CONTENT=
VOICED AT:
INTRO: A POWER STRUGGLE CONTINUES IN IRAN BETWEEN HARD LINERS
AND MODERATES. DEPENDING ON THE OUTCOME, TWO U-S FOREIGN POLICY
ANALYSTS URGE THE UNITED STATES TO CHANGE ITS CURRENT DUAL
CONTAINMENT OF IRAN AND IRAQ AND ADOPT A MORE NUANCED APPROACH TO
WHAT THEY AND MANY OTHERS CONSIDER TO BE A MOST COMPLEX
GEOPOLITICAL SITUATION. V-O-A'S CORRESPONDENT ED WARNER REPORTS
THEIR VIEWS IN RECENTLY PUBLISHED WORKS.
TEXT: THE U-S POLICY OF DUAL CONTAINMENT OF IRAN AND IRAQ IS
INTENDED TO KEEP THE UNITED STATES FROM SIDING WITH EITHER. BUT
THAT CANNOT BE DONE, WRITES KENNETH KATZMAN OF THE CONGRESSIONAL
RESEARCH SERVICE IN A PAPER PUBLISHED BY THE EMIRATES CENTER FOR
STRATEGIC STUDIES AND RESEARCH.
INEVITABLY, SAYS MR. KATZMAN, THE UNITED STATES IS DRAWN INTO THE
POWER STRUGGLES BETWEEN THE TWO COUNTRIES. IN CRACKING DOWN ON
IRAQ, WASHINGTON HAS ALLOWED IRAN TO BUILD UP ITS MILITARY
STRENGTH.
TO ACCOMPLISH THIS NOT VERY DESIRABLE GOAL, MR. KATZMAN SAYS THE
UNITED STATES HAS COMMITTED FORCES BEYOND ITS MEANS AND WOULD BE
HARD PRESSED TO RESPOND TO A CRISIS ELSEWHERE IN THE WORLD.
WASHINGTON'S GROWING MILTARY PRESENCE HAS ALSO AROUSED POPULAR
OPPOSITION TO THE FRAGILE GULF STATES THE UNITED STATES IS TRYING
TO PROTECT.
MR. KATZMAN ADDS THAT WHOEVER RULES IRAN AND IRAQ WILL NOT CEASE
TO STRIVE FOR HEGEMONY IN THE REGION. SO HE CALLS ON THE CLINTON
ADMINISTRATION TO INITIATE A COMPREHENSIVE PEACE PROCESS WITH ALL
THE COUNTRIES INVOLVED, INCLUDING THE UNITED STATES.
HE THINKS IRAN AND IRAQ MIGHT BE MORE WILLING TO DEAL WITH THE
UNITED STATES IF IT IS NOT TRYING TO ISOLATE THEM:
// KATZMAN ACT //
IF WE HAD SOME SORT OF A REGIONAL SECURITY AGREEMENT
AMONG ALL THE EIGHT STATES OF THE GULF, THE U-S PRESENCE
WOULD BE SEEN MORE AS A GUARANTOR, AS AN IMPLEMENTING
FORCE AND NOT AS A PRESENCE THAT IS DIRECTED AGAINST
ANYBODY BUT IS DIRECTED IN FAVOR OF ENFORCING SOMETHING
THAT EVERYBODY IS AGREED TO. I THINK WE NEED A BROAD
RANGE OF POLICY TOOLS OTHER THAN JUST MILITARY PRESSURE
AND JUST ECONOMIC SANCTIONS.
// END ACT //
DUAL CONTAINMENT MAY MAKE AMERICANS FEEL GOOD, SAYS RAYMOND
TANTER, PROFESSOR OF POLITICAL SCIENCE AT THE UNIVERSITY OF
MICHIGAN. BUT WHAT EXACTLY IS BEING ACCOMPLISHED? HE ASKS IN HIS
RECENTLY PUBLISHED BOOK "ROGUE REGIMES."
MR. TANTER WRITES THAT NEITHER IRAN NOR IRAQ WERE RESTRAINED FROM
SENDING TROOPS TO NORTHERN IRAQ TO BOLSTER THEIR PARTICULAR
KURDISH ALLIES IN THE OUTBREAK OF FIGHTING IN THE SUMMER OF 1996.
DUAL CONTAINMENT KEPT THE UNITED STATES FROM INTERFERING WITH
EITHER SIDE, THOUGH IT DID LAUNCH CRUISE MISSILE STRIKES IN THE
IRAQI SOUTH WHICH CHANGED NOTHING IN THE NORTH.
ONLY BALANCE OF POWER WORKS, SAYS MR. TANTER, WHO SERVED IN THE
NATIONAL SECURITY COUNCIL OF THE REAGAN ADMINISTRATION. HE ADDS
THE UNITED STATES MUST HELP WITH THE BALANCING, THUS PREVENTING
EITHER IRAN OR IRAQ FROM BECOMING THE REGION'S MAJOR POWER. THIS
POLICY WORKED BEFORE, HE WRITES. IT WILL WORK AGAIN.
HE DOUBTS THE PEACE PROCESS PROPOSED BY MR. KATZMAN IS AN ANSWER:
// TANTER ACT //
A COMPREHENSIVE PEACE PROCESS THAT INVOLVES MANY OF THE
PARTIES OF THE REGION I THINK WOULD BE A MISTAKE BECAUSE
YOU WOULD HAVE LOWEST COMMON DENOMINATOR DECISION
MAKING. YOU WOULD HAVE AS AN OUTCOME OF SUCH A PROCESS,
ONLY THAT WHICH COULD BE AGREED UPON BY ALL OF THE
PARTIES. IN EFFECT, YOU WOULD GIVE A VETO TO THE MOST
EXTREME ELEMENTS.
// END ACT //
THE EXTREMES HAVE FLOURISHED UNDER PAST POLICIES, SAYS KENNETH
KATZMAN. HE URGES THE UNITED STATES TO HELP BUILD A COOPERATIVE
SECURITY SYSTEM IN PLACE OF THE ADVERSARIAL AND COMPETITIVE ONE
THAT HAS LED TO CONTINUING STRIFE IN THE REGION. (SIGNED)
NEB/PT
14-Apr-98 7:13 PM EDT (2313 UTC)
NNNN
Source: Voice of America
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