DATE=4/9/98
TYPE=BACKGROUND REPORT
NUMBER=5-40016
TITLE=ISRAEL / IRAN NUKES
BYLINE=AL PESSIN
DATELINE=JERUSALEM
CONTENT=
VOICED AT:
INTRO: AN ISRAELI NEWSPAPER SAYS IT HAS OBTAINED EVIDENCE THAT
IRAN RECEIVED NUCLEAR WEAPONS FROM A FORMER SOVIET REPUBLIC IN
1992, AND THAT U-S AND ISRAELI EXPERTS BELIEVE IRAN IS LESS THAN
TWO YEARS AWAY FROM DEVELOPING A MISSILE TO DELIVER SUCH A
WEAPON. V-O-A'S AL PESSIN IN JERUSALEM LOOKS AT THE NEW
INFORMATION, AND SOME SKEPTICISM ABOUT IT.
TEXT: THE JERUSALEM POST NEWSPAPER SAYS IT HAS OBTAINED IRANIAN
DOCUMENTS REFERRING TO AS MANY AS FOUR NUCLEAR WARHEADS OBTAINED
FROM KAZAKHSTAN, AND SERVICED BY RUSSIAN EXPERTS. UNDER THE
HEADLINE "IRAN HAS FOUR NUCLEAR BOMBS," THE POST QUOTES A LETTER
FROM ONE IRANIAN OFFICIAL TO ANOTHER REPORTING ON THE WHEREABOUTS
AND STATUS OF THE WEAPONS. ANOTHER DOCUMENT QUOTED BY THE POST
REPORTS ON PROBLEMS WITH THE WARHEADS AND EXPECTED REPAIRS BY
RUSSIAN TECHNICIANS. A THIRD DOCUMENT DISCUSSES IRAN'S MISSILE
DEVELOPMENT PROGRAM.
ON ONE OF THE LETTERS, ACCORDING TO THE JERUSALEM POST, AN
IRANIAN SECURITY OFFICIAL PUT A NOTE URGING THE OTHER OFFICIALS
NOT TO PUT SUCH THINGS IN WRITING BECAUSE OF THE DANGER THEY
COULD BECOME PUBLIC.
REPORTS IN 1992 OF AN IRANIAN NUCLEAR WEAPONS PURCHASE WERE
DISMISSED BY MOST EXPERTS AT THE TIME. AND THE DIRECTOR OF THE
CENTER FOR STRATEGIC STUDIES AT TEL AVIV UNIVERSITY, SHAI
FELDMAN, SAYS SINCE THEN NO CREDIBLE EVIDENCE HAS SURFACED TO
INDICATE IRAN HAS NUCLEAR WEAPONS, IN SPITE OF WIDESPREAD
SUSPICION AND IRAN'S APPARENT INTEREST IN OBTAINING THEM.
/// FELDMAN ACTUALITY ///
THE BEST ESTIMATE IS THAT IRAN HAS NOT YET OBTAINED
FISSILE MATERIAL THAT WOULD ALLOW IT TO CREATE A NUCLEAR
BOMB OR CONDUCT A NUCLEAR EXPLOSION.
/// END ACTUALITY ///
MR. FELDMAN SAYS IRAN DOES NOT HAVE THE FACILITIES TO PRODUCE
ITS OWN NUCLEAR-WEAPONS MATERIAL, AND THERE IS NO PROOF IT HAS
PURCHASED SUCH MATERIAL FROM OTHER COUNTRIES.
BUT THE JERUSALEM POST QUOTES UNIDENTIFIED ISRAELI AND U-S
OFFICIALS AS SAYING THESE LATEST DOCUMENTS INDICATING IRAN DOES
HAVE NOT ONLY NUCLEAR WEAPONS MATERIAL BUT ACTUAL NUCLEAR
WARHEADS APPEAR MORE AUTHENTIC THAN ANY EARLIER INDICATIONS.
SHAI FELDMAN OF TEL AVIV UNIVERSITY HAS NOT SEEN THE POST'S
DOCUMENTS, AND HE SAYS THE CREDIBILITY OF THE NEWSPAPER'S REPORT
DEPENDS ENTIRELY ON THE DOCUMENTS' AUTHENTICITY.
/// FELDMAN ACTUALITY ///
MUCH OF THE ASSESSMENT NOW DEPENDS ON THE AUTHENTICITY
OF THE DOCUMENTS THAT HAVE BEEN QUOTED. TO REJECT THIS
OUT OF HAND AND TELL YOU THAT THIS IS IMPOSSIBLE TO HAVE
TAKEN PLACE, I CAN'T. TO BE ABLE MYSELF TO AUTHENTICATE
THE LETTERS AND TO KNOW THEY ARE AUTHENTIC AND THAT THEY
ARE NOT FORGERIES WHICH ARE PART OF A DISINFORMATION
CAMPAIGN, I CAN'T EITHER.
/// END ACTUALITY ///
MR. FELDMAN SAYS THERE HAS BEEN SO MUCH DISINFORMATION ABOUT
IRAN'S NUCLEAR PROGRAM, BOTH FROM IRAN'S GOVERNMENT AND FROM ITS
OPPONENTS ABROAD, THAT IT IS DIFFICULT TO KNOW WHETHER THE
JERUSALEM POST'S INFORMATION IS GENUINE OR NOT.
/// OPT /// IN RECENT MONTHS, IRAN HAS BEEN GOING THROUGH
SOME INTERNAL DEBATE ABOUT WHETHER TO MODERATE ITS REVOLUTIONARY
IDEOLOGY. BUT UNLESS AND UNTIL THAT HAPPENS, MR. FELDMAN SAYS
THURSDAY'S NEWSPAPER REPORT WILL HEIGHTEN CONCERNS IN ISRAEL AND
ELSEWHERE ABOUT WHAT CAPABILITIES IRAN MIGHT HAVE TO TRY TO FORCE
THAT IDEOLOGY ON OTHERS.
/// OPT // FELDMAN ACTUALITY ///
THE STRATEGIC IMPLICATIONS ARE, OF COURSE, FAR-REACHING.
IF THESE REPORTS ARE CORRECT AND IF THE MEANING OF THESE
REPORTS ARE THAT IRAN HAS OBTAINED NUCLEAR WEAPONS, WE
ARE FACED WITH A SITUATION IN WHICH A COUNTRY THAT HAS
NOT YET TRANSFORMED ITSELF AWAY FROM SUPPORTING
REVOLUTIONS, AWAY FROM SUPPORTING TERRORISM, HAS
OBTAINED THE CAPABILITY FOR MASS DESTRUCTION, AND
NOBODY CAN AFFORD TO IGNORE SUCH A POTENTIAL THREAT.
/// END OPT // END ACTUALITY ///
THE RENEWED POSSIBILITY THAT IRAN HAS STORED AWAY SOME NUCLEAR
WARHEADS IS PARTICULARLY SIGNIFICANT IN LIGHT OF IRAN'S EFFORT TO
DEVELOP A MISSILE WHICH COULD DELIVER SUCH WARHEADS. ISRAELI AND
U-S OFFICIALS MET IN JERUSALEM THIS WEEK TO COORDINATE EFFORTS TO
CONVINCE RUSSIA TO STOP HELPING IRAN DEVELOP THE MISSILE -- BUT
RUSSIA DENIES INVOLVEMENT IN ANY SUCH PROGRAM.
THE JERUSALEM POST QUOTES AN ISRAELI SOURCE AS SAYING THE
OFFICIALS WHO MET THIS WEEK BELIEVE A PROTOTYPE OF AN IRANIAN
MISSILE CAPABLE OF REACHING ISRAEL COULD BE READY NEXT YEAR.
THAT APPEARS TO MAKE EFFORTS TO STOP THE MISSILE PROGRAM, AND TO
FIND OUT WHETHER IRAN HAS A NUCLEAR WARHEAD TO PUT ON SUCH A
MISSILE, PARTICULARLY PRESSING. (SIGNED)
NEB/AWP/JWH/KL
09-Apr-98 1:20 PM EDT (1720 UTC)
NNNN
Source: Voice of America
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