DATE=12/11/96
TYPE=BACKGROUND REPORT
NUMBER=5-35171
TITLE=IRAN'S NUCLEAR DRIVE
BYLINE=MAXIM KNIAZKOV
DATELINE=WASHINGTON
CONTENT=
VOICED AT:
INTRO: WITH NUCLEAR PROLIFERATION SINGLED OUT AS A MAJOR THREAT
TO WORLD PEACE, THE NEWLY SELECTED U-S NATIONAL SECURITY TEAM IS
EXPECTED TO KEEP A CLOSE WATCH ON IRAN. U-S OFFICIALS AND
NUCLEAR EXPERTS SAY TEHRAN IS MOVING AHEAD IN ITS DRIVE TO BUILD
NUCLEAR WEAPONS. V-O-A'S MAXIM KNIAZKOV BRINGS US AN UPDATE ON
THIS DRIVE.
TEXT: PUBLICLY, IRAN CLAIMS ITS NUCLEAR PROGRAM IS EXCLUSIVELY
PEACEFUL AND OPEN TO INTERNATIONAL INSPECTIONS. BUT EXPERTS SAY
THE PROBLEM IS THAT IRAN'S NUCLEAR PROGRAM HAS A DOUBLE BOTTOM.
THEY SAY THE COUNTRY'S NUCLEAR POWER PLANTS, AS WELL AS ITS
PURPORTEDLY PEACEFUL RESEARCH FACILITIES, HIDE SECRET PROGRAMS
DESIGNED TO TURN IRAN INTO A NUCLEAR POWER.
A RECENT ITEM IN U-S NEWS AND WORLD REPORT MAGAZINE, CITING
INTELLIGENCE SOURCES, SAYS IRAN IS BUILDING IN YAZD, THE
COUNTRY'S URANIUM MINING CENTER, A NETWORK OF SUSPICIOUS
UNDERGROUND SHAFTS. ACCORDING TO THE MAGAZINE, INTELLIGENCE
SOURCES BELIEVE THOSE SHAFTS COULD BE USED FOR FUTURE NUCLEAR
TESTS.
BUT THAT, SAYS GARY MILHOLLIN, EXECUTIVE DIRECTOR OF THE
WISCONSIN PROJECT ON NUCLEAR ARMS CONTROL, IS ONLY THE TIP OF THE
ICEBERG (A SMALL PART OF PROBLEM). MR. MILHOLLIN SAYS THE REACH
OF TEHRAN'S NUCLEAR PROGRAM IS INDEED GLOBAL.
// ACT ONE MILHOLLIN //
THE IRANIANS ARE FOLLOWING BASICALLY THE SAME PATH THE
IRAQIS FOLLOWED. THEY ARE BUYING AS MUCH AS THEY CAN
EVERYWHERE IN THE WORLD TO PUT TOGETHER THEIR OWN
ABILITY TO MAKE NUCLEAR WEAPONS. THEY ARE LOOKING FOR
HELP IN PROSPECTING FOR URANIUM, HELP IN CONVERTING THE
URANIUM INTO HEXAFLUORIDE GAS AND THEN HELP IN ENRICHING
THE HEXAFLUORIDE GAS UP TO NUCLEAR WEAPON GRADE AND THEN
TAKING THE NUCLEAR WEAPON GRADE URANIUM OUT IF IT AND
MAKING IT INTO A BOMB.
// END ACT //
IRANIAN OFFICIALS INSIST THEIR COUNTRY'S NUCLEAR PROGRAM HAS
NOTHING TO DO WITH WEAPONS. THEY POINT TO SMALL NUCLEAR RESEARCH
FACILITIES IN TEHRAN, ISFAHAN AND KARAJ -- AND AN UNFINISHED
NUCLEAR POWER PLANT IN THE SOUTHERN CITY OF BUSHEHR. THEY NEVER
FAIL TO MENTION THAT THE BUSHEHR PLANT WAS STARTED UNDER THE
SHAH, A STAUNCH U-S ALLY, AND WASHINGTON DID NOT RAISE ANY
OBJECTIONS AT THE TIME.
BUT LEONARD SPECTOR, A NON-PROLIFERATION EXPERT AT CARNEGIE
ENDOWMENT FOR INTERNATIONAL PEACE, SAYS CURRENT IRANIAN RULERS
HAVE RADICALLY CHANGED THE PROGRAM'S OVERALL CHARACTER.
// ACT TWO SPECTOR //
THERE IS A NATIONAL COMMITMENT IN IRAN TO ACQUIRE
NUCLEAR WEAPONS, WHICH IS MANIFEST THROUGH THE EXISTENCE
OF A CLANDESTINE PROGRAM, EVEN IF THAT PROGRAM HAS NOT
GOTTEN TOO FAR AS YET.
// END ACT //
PUBLISHED REPORTS SAY ONE OF IRAN'S SECRET NUCLEAR FACILITIES IS
LOCATED NORTH OF TEHRAN, IN UNDERGROUND CHAMBERS DUG BENEATH THE
VILLAGE OF MOALLEM KALAYEH. ANOTHER NUCLEAR COMPLEX IS BELIEVED
TO BE HIDDEN AT DARKHOVIN, A MILITARY BASE RUN BY THE
REVOLUTIONARY GUARDS, IRAN'S ELITE MILITARY SERVICE.
ON TOP OF THAT, U-S OFFICIALS SAY TEHRAN IS TRYING TO USE ITS
PEACEFUL FACILITIES AS A GUISE FOR OBTAINING NUCLEAR TECHNOLOGY
THAT COULD BE APPLIED FOR MANUFACTURING WEAPONS.
MR. SPECTOR OF CARNEGIE ENDOWMENT SAYS THAT IN THAT REGARD,
TEHRAN IS RELYING ON COUNTRIES OF THE FORMER SOVIET UNION.
// ACT THREE SPECTOR //
YOU HAVE A SITUATION IN RUSSIA, WHERE APART FROM
OFFICIALLY SANCTIONED EXPORTS, THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY
OF NUCLEAR SMUGGLING. THERE IS AN AWFUL LOT OF
MATERIAL, HUNDREDS OF TONS OF MATERIAL, THAT COULD BE
USED FOR NUCLEAR WEAPONS, WHICH IS COVERED BY RATHER
POOR SECURITY.
// END ACT //
U-S OFFICIALS HAVE REPEATEDLY WARNED THAT, DANGEROUS AS THEY ARE
IN THEMSELVES, IRAN'S NUCLEAR PURSUITS BECOME A REAL NIGHTMARE IN
LIGHT OF THE COUNTRY'S SUPPORT FOR INTERNATIONAL TERRORIST
NETWORKS.
MR. MILHOLLIN OF THE WISCONSIN PROJECT SAYS THAT A COUNTRY DOES
NOT NECESSARILY NEED SOPHISTICATED BALLISTIC MISSILES TO DELIVER
NUCLEAR WARHEADS.
// ACT FOUR MILHOLLIN //
THEY (THE WARHEADS) CAN BE SMUGGLED IN AND DETONATED IN
A BUILDING. THEY CAN BE BROUGHT UP A RIVER ON A BOAT.
THEY CAN BE SHOT IN FROM A SUBMARINE 200 MILES OFF SHORE
OR EVEN FOR THAT MATTER FROM THE DECK OF A CONTAINER
SHIP 100 MILES OFFSHORE. THERE ARE LOTS OF WAY TO
DELIVER A NUCLEAR WEAPON THAT DON'T REQUIRE AN
INTERCONTINENTAL BALLISTIC MISSILE.
// END ACT //
BUT MR. MILHOLLIN SAYS IRAN IS LIKELY TO ACQUIRE BALLISTIC
MISSILES, DUE PRIMARILY TO ITS COOPERATION WITH NORTH KOREA, EVEN
EARLIER THAN NUCLEAR WEAPONS. AS FOR NUCLEAR WARHEADS, U-S
OFFICIALS AND PROLIFERATION SPECIALISTS AGREE THAT TEHRAN WILL
PROBABLY HAVE THEM WITHIN 10 YEARS, IF ITS NUCLEAR DRIVE GOES
UNIMPEDED. (SIGNED)
NEB/MAX/KL
11-Dec-96 2:41 PM EST (1941 UTC)
NNNN
Source: Voice of America
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