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Title:  "Key States Seen Changing in Post Crisis Gulf." Middle East scholars feel that important countries like Iran and Turkey could play lead roles in a Post-war Gulf scenario. (910301)

Author:  HOLMES, NORMA (USIA STAFF WRITER)
Date:  19910301

Text:
*NEA515

03/01/91 *

KEY STATES SEEN CHANGING IN POST CRISIS GULF (HFA hearing on Israel, Iran and Turkey) (1090) by Norma Holmes USIA Staff writer

Washington -- After a decade of self-imposed isolation, Tehran is moving to rejoin the world community, says the noted Middle East scholar, Dr. R. K. Ramazani.

"Iran would like to play a constructive role in the post- war era," the professor of government and foreign affairs at the University of Virginia told the Foreign Affairs Subcommittee on Europe and the Middle East of the U.S. House of Representatives.

He added, however, that despite Iran's "significant though subtle shift from a revolutionary to a pragmatic foreign policy" following the death of Ayatollah Khomeini, the United States still holds a "1979 image" of Iran.

Also speaking at the February 28 hearing were Sabri Sayari, a Rand Corporation consultant and professor at George Washington University, and Ehud Sprinzak, professor at the Hebrew University in Jerusalem who is now a visiting professor at Georgetown University in Washington.

Ramazani said Iran's declared neutrality in the Gulf war, its reception of Iraqi planes, and its offers to mediate an end to the war reflect efforts "to talk directly with the United States." Ramazani said that pragmatists, led by President Hashemi Rafsanjani, "now chiefly control Tehran's foreign policy," and despite his harsh internal rhetoric, Iran's spiritual leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, is the author of Iran's "open-door foreign policy."

Nevertheless, Tehran remains deeply concerned about a continued presence of forces -- "especially ground forces" -- from outside the region, the scholar noted. He said that despite outward appearances of an ongoing bilateral relationship between Baghdad and Tehran concerning the Iraqi planes, "all is not well" between the two nations. "Many post Iran-Iraq war issues have yet to be resolved."

What is needed now is a dialogue between Iran and the United States, Ramazani told the subcommittee. "I am talking about small gestures -- it would not have to be anything major," he said.

Responding to questions by Rep. Harry Johnston (Democrat of Florida) on whether there was a "side deal between Iran and

GE 2 nea515 Iraq" over Iraqi planes landing in Iran, Ramazani said the Iranians had repeatedly complained to Iraq about the landings. At present, he said, Iraqi pilots are being held by Iran. Ramazani predicted that the Iraqi planes would also be held as "bargaining chips" in negotiating a post- war settlement with Iraq for Iran-Iraq war reparations.

Sayari said Turkey's policy in the Gulf crisis is also "a significant departure" from its national policy of noninvolvement. "Turkish president Turgut Ozal has very solidly supported Washington from the outset. He has established a very close relationship with president Bush in the face of considerable domestic opposition," Sayari noted.

He said Iraq had been Turkey's major trading partner in the 1980's, so that applying the U.N. sanctions dealt a very serious blow to Turkey's economy. Its foreign policy shift came as Turkey "became increasingly weary of Iraq's growing militarization and development of chemical and nuclear capabilities, which altered the balance of power in the region," Sayari said.

"President Ozal would like to see Saddam Hussein ousted from power and the (Iraqi) Baath regime dismantled," he said, since his continuation in power "represents a worst case scenario" for Turkey and other coalition members. "Turkey has played a very important and key role in the coalition."

From Turkey's point of view, Sayari said, "the best possible outcome would be the establishment of a democratic system that will extend freedom and liberties to all Iraqi citizens" irrespective of their religious or ethnic affiliations.

Sayari also said that "the Turks have won (Saddam Hussein's) wrath" by siding so solidly with the United States. In the short run, he said, "Saddam Hussein might use some unconventional means -- such as terrorism -- to achieve what he could not get by conventional means."

Sprinzak said that the crisis has strengthened Israeli Prime Minister Yitzhak Shamir and the Israeli right. "The single most important thing going on in Israel right now is the immigration of Soviet Jews," he said, adding, "I don't think that Israel has the means at the present time of coping."

He said it will be "extremely hard to gain any movement" on the Palestinian issue right now, but added that since guaranteed U.S. loans for housing is something the Israelis care a great deal about, "they may be ready to pay a price."

GE 3 nea515 "I would like to propose that the immediate target of American policy should be the establishment of autonomy in the occupied territories in exchange for ending the Palestinian intifada," Sprinzak said.

Responding to questions, Sprinzak said the little-known plan spoken of by Deputy Prime Minister David Levi two months ago may represent Israeli policy, "but I don't believe it was discussed by the Israeli cabinet and know of no coordination between Prime Minister Shamir and Levi on it."

"These are more or less ideas that could be approved by the Israeli cabinet -- I would hope they would." He said the idea of an international conference was a "lost cause," but the "Levi plan" could well be "one of the instruments to rediscover this issue." He also urged American policy makers to come up with something imaginative. "I would not wait for them (the Israelis) to come up with something very innovative," Sprinzak said.

Representative Eliot Engel (Democrat of New York) told Sprinzak that when the members of the House Foreign Affairs committee met last week with the ambassadors of Egypt, Israel and Saudi Arabia, the envoys "made a lot out of the fact that the Arab nations met and talked about the Palestinian question and pointedly left out the PLO as the legitimate representative of the Palestinian people."

Engel said that the ambassadors "all felt in the post-war situation there was an opportunity for dialogue and perhaps settlement" of the stalemate between Israel and some of the Arab countries.

"Do you see that as a possibility -- and is the PLO finished?" Engel asked Sprinzak.

"If there is a movement on the Israeli-Palestinian issue, then the answer is -- cautiously -- yes," Sprinzak responded. He said the climate "has improved dramatically, but certainly there is a trend in the Arab world to punish the PLO." Sprinzak said there has been "dramatic depreciation in the position of the PLO -- especially in the Arab world -- but 95 percent of the Palestinian world still says 'this is our organization, our only expression.'"