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Title:  "Expert Discusses Iran's Role in Gulf Conflict." In an address to the Middle East Institute, Professor Richard Cottam of the University of Pittsburgh said that Iran's growing hostility toward the US does not presage an Iraqi attack from Iranian soil. (910201)

Author:  GOMEZ, BERTA (USIA STAFF WRITER)
Date:  19910201

Text:
*NEA518

02/01/91 *

EXPERT DISCUSSES IRAN'S ROLE IN GULF CONFLICT (Richard Cottam lecture at Middle East Inst.) (620) By Berta Gomez USIA staff writer

Washington -- Although Iran's willingness to allow Iraqi warplanes to land inside its borders since the outbreak of the Gulf war suggests a growing hostility towards the U.S. presence in the region, it is highly unlikely that Iran would allow any anti-coalition attacks to originate from its soil, says a noted Middle East scholar.

Richard Cottam, a professor of political science at the University of Pittsburgh, said January 31 that "the willingness of Iran to do this much -- to make this kind of gesture -- indicates that Iran is moving very far in terms of...hostility towards United States forces."

The Iranian government might also be preparing for the post-war period, during which it could help Iraq "maintain some kind of presence" in the region, said Cottam.

Cottam made the comments during a lecture at the Middle East Institute which focused largely on the history of Iran's relationship with Iraq and the United States.

He acknowledged that Iran's decision to accept warplanes from its former arch-enemy is "dangerous," but suggested that Teheran could be looking forward to the day when the regional balance of power is shifted such that "the idea of giving the planes back" to Iraq "won't seem outrageous at all."

He also dismissed the notion that Iran might consider allowing Iraq to use those warplanes for attacks against coalition forces in the Gulf. "I would be very, very surprised if Iran would cooperate with that," he said. Iranian President Rafsanjani "will not do that which will produce the kind of punishment that Iraq has suffered," Cottam stressed. "(Iran) might take risks...but not which would produce that kind of holocaust."

Cottam took issue with foreign affairs analysts who have described Iran's decision to harbor Iraqi warplanes as "irrational" or as an attempt to "play both sides" of the Gulf conflict.

Most analysts, he noted, "have drawn a very clear, distinct line -- and that is that Iran is one of the great winners of this conflict" because "she'll see a bonanza in oil

GE 2 nea518 income...she's broken out of her isolation...she has her worst enemy on the ropes...and is likely to emerge from this conflict as a superpower in the region."

Cottam stressed that such interpretations are fundamentally flawed, because they are premised on the assumption that "this is how a nation-state in this particular setting would behave." Although President Rafsanjani "is much more of an Iranian nationalist than his colleagues," Iran's attachment to groups "beyond the ethnic national identity," prevents it from behaving like other nation-states, he said.

Noting that the Gulf war has brought on a deep polarization within the Islamic world, Cottam said that "the potential for Iranian leadership is extraordinary...but I'm not sure (Iran will) see the opportunity and make the move." There are no signs, he said, that Rafsanjani "has any grand plans in mind."

Turning to Iraq and its repeated attempts to draw Israel into the Gulf war, Cottam said that the missile attacks on Israeli territory "have succeeded" in exciting Arab and Muslim peoples, and in further weakening Syrian leader Hafez Al-Assad.

Cottam also briefly addressed the United States' role in the Gulf conflict and in the events that led to war, expressing serious misgivings about that policy.

He noted that most of the Islamic world -- including Iran -- was outraged by Iraq's invasion of Kuwait and seemed determined to try to achieve a withdrawal. He suggested that the current conflict might have been resolved peacefully by countries within the region. NNNN