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Militaries should be ranked by real capabilities rather than on paper: Chinese expert on India's 'world's third most powerful air force' ranking

Global Times

By Liu Xuanzun and Liang Rui Published: Oct 21, 2025 12:34 AM

A new ranking of the world's air forces which "placed India third, behind only the US and Russian and ahead of China" has triggered discussions in the Indian media over the past week. While one of them called India's entry to the top three countries on the list "spectacular," another struck a cautionary tone, warning that "any misjudgment, wrong assessment, or overconfidence can have deadly consequences."

A Chinese expert on Monday said that militaries should be ranked by real capabilities rather than on paper, and that potential miscalculations brought by the hype would benefit no one.

The ranking was made by World Directory of Modern Military Aircraft (WDMMA), covering 103 countries and 129 air services, including army, navy, and marine aviation branches, according to Newsweek.

In the Newsweek report on Wednesday, it claimed that, "In a stunning shift in global military power, India has leapfrogged China to claim the title of the third most powerful air force in the world. While the US continues to dominate, followed by Russia, India's rise signals a dramatic recalibration in Asia's strategic balance."

According to the website of WDMMA, it uses a formula producing a "TruVal Rating" based on not only overall strength, but modernization, logistical, support, attack and defense capabilities and so on, and a power is not simply assessed on its total quantity of aircraft but rather its quality and general mix of inventory. The US ranked first in total, with the US Air Force, US Navy, US Army and US Marines received TruVal Rating of 242.9, 142.4, 112.6 and 85.3 respectively. The Russian Air Force received a TruVal Rating of 114.2, and the Indian Air Force 69.4.

The X account of India's ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) celebrated the ranking on Saturday, saying it is "proud moment as Indian Air Force becomes the 3rd most powerful Air Force in the world" with 1,716 aircraft strong, a TruVal Rating of 69.4 and surpassing China in global air power rankings.

Citing the WDMMA ranking, Indian media DNA claimed in a report on Friday that "China has been eliminated from the list of the top three countries with the most powerful air forces, and India has made a spectacular entry."

Another Indian media outlet, the Business Standard, reported that according to the WDMMA ranking, in its fleet of 1,716 units, India maintains a balanced force composition: 31.6 per cent fighters, 29 per cent helicopters, and 21.8 per cent trainers. The Indian Air Force sources its equipment from a diverse range of countries, including the US and Russia, reflecting its complex geopolitical positioning.

But not all Indian media outlets are as optimistic. The EurAsian Times said in an article on Saturday that the WDMMA ranking has "surprised everyone by ranking India above China in terms of air power," and "while it is heartening to see the Indian Air Force ranked above China, New Delhi must not get carried away." It also highlighted that India and China are neighbors, and any misjudgment, wrong assessment, or overconfidence can have deadly consequences.

The EurAsian Times recalled that the Indian Air Force faced Chinese-made aircraft such as the J-10CE and JF-17 as well as Chinese missiles like the PL-15 in the Pakistan-India air clash in May. Citing a Reuters report, the EurAsian Times claimed that the reason the Indian Air Force lost a few aircraft during the brief war with Pakistan in May might have been an intelligence failure in assessing the real capabilities of the Chinese long-range air-to-air missile, the PL-15.

Zhang Junshe, a Chinese military affairs expert, told the Global Times on Monday that this so-called ranking should not be taken seriously. He said that only the actual battlefield capabilities of militaries, not their paper strength, constitute a meaningful comparison.

The hype by some US and Indian media might have ulterior motives of fueling China-India competition, Zhang said, warning that such a risky move could trigger a dangerous spiral of miscalculation.