Weapons of Mass Destruction (WMD)

DATE=01-6-04

TYPE=INTERVIEW

NUMBNER=3-848

TITLE=INDIA-PAKISTAN

BYLINE=DAVID BORGIDA

DATELINE=WASHINGTON

CONTENT=

INTRODUCTION

Dana Dillon from the Heritage Foundation, discusses recent developments in talks between India and Pakistan. Mr. Dillon is a specialist in Army intelligence and Army foreign affairs.

MR. BORGIDA

Joining us now to talk about the India-Pakistan issue, from the Heritage Foundation here in Washington, Dana Dillon. Mr. Dillon, thanks for being our guest to talk about these events. We appreciate you coming in.

MR. DILLON

Thanks for having me on the show.

MR. BORGIDA

What makes the two leaders at this point confident that they're going to resolve the disputes between them, including in Kashmir, when previous efforts haven't been particularly successful?

MR. DILLON

Well, you know, that's a really good question, because I can't fathom it myself. I know both leaders have tried several times in the past, Vajpayee especially. And Vajpayee is prepared, he keeps saying, "at the end of my life." Maybe he really wants to make a big statement on this peace thing. And I hope it works out. I hope the negotiations at least continue. But both sides have substantive disagreements, very substantive disagreements, over Kashmir that preclude, I think, an agreement without substantive compromise on both sides. So I don't really see Kashmir being an immediate solution to this problem.

MR. BORGIDA

What would be a breakthrough kind of statement that would lead to success? Because usually when these kinds of things happen between foreign leaders, surrogates, lower-level surrogates, are paving the way for these kinds of agreements. You'd think that we would be hearing some word about what might be on the table.

MR. DILLON

Right. Well, I think what they're really trying to do right now is start a process more than they're trying to find a solution. They haven't had any process at all to the negotiations. There hasn't been any dialogue. They're constantly breaking things off. And what they're doing now is creating a process where maybe there will be a solution in the future.

One of the things that they can do is work out ways to discuss issues that they do agree on; for example, trade issues or transportation issues or environmental control issues, population movement issues. Those are the kinds of things that they can work on outside of Kashmir that maybe when they develop a good relationship, they development a friendly relationship, then maybe Kashmir, or peace in Kashmir, will be the fruit of that eventual dialogue.

MR. BORGIDA

You mentioned Mr. Vajpayee, who is 79 years old, and perhaps he's looking at this as a legacy kind of an issue. Personal incentive often does drive these kinds of moments in history.

MR. DILLON

Absolutely.

MR. BORGIDA

Talk a little bit about that and why he feels this way you think.

MR. DILLON

Well, one is he's 79 years old. He's at least nearing the end of his political career, I'm imagining. There's going to be major elections coming up in India this year, in 2004. So I'm thinking, on the Vajpayee side, that he wants to, as you said, leave a legacy behind.

Musharraf might feel the very same thing. He has a lot of political problems at home, and some sort of peace agreement with India, an honorable peace on Pakistan's part, would be very much in his interest as well. He's got to move away from the terrorist issue, which has been dogging his heels since he came into office. And hopefully he can do that by getting a peace agreement and use that as a way to stop the terrorism that has been launched from his territory.

MR. BORGIDA

And more than the terrorism, the assassination attempts on him.

MR. DILLON

The assassination attempts, yes.

MR. BORGIDA

How does that filter into the debate?

MR. DILLON

Well, it has something to do with at the end of the war in Afghanistan, when the Soviet Union was pushed out of Afghanistan, Pakistan was instrumental in allowing forces to fight, the Afghan forces, to fight there. And I believe that the Pakistani intelligence services believed that they could do the same thing in Kashmir. And it has been a complete failure.

The campaign there in Kashmir has done nothing but alienate Pakistan from the Kashmir people. And I think Musharraf and many in the military want to get away from that, because it's dogging them and the whole world now because of this. And they've lost control of the terrorist groups operating on their soil. And they want to get control of their country again and go down the road and join the rest of the world and not be a pariah state.

MR. BORGIDA

Dana Dillon with the Heritage Foundation here in Washington, giving us some insight on South Asia. We appreciate your being here. Thanks for joining us.

MR. DILLON

Thank you for having me.

(End of interview.)

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