Weapons of Mass Destruction (WMD)

DATE= 12/16/02

TYPE=BACKGROUND REPORT

TITLE= YEARENDER: INDIA / PAKISTAN

NUMBER=5-52739

BYLINE= JIM TEEPLE

DATELINE= NEW DELHI

CONTENT=

VOICED AT:

INTRO: Two-Thousand-Two was a year of tension between India and

Pakistan. Relations between South Asia's two nuclear neighbors soured to the

point where -- at one point -- war seemed inevitable. V-O-A's Jim Teeple reports

intense diplomatic efforts prevented war, but -- at year's end -- there

is no sign either country is prepared to take the difficult steps necessary for a lasting peace in the region.

TEXT:

/// BUDDHIST CHANTING UP AND UNDER ///

January in Nepal -- Buddhist prayers for peace opened the regional

SAARC (South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation) summit of South

Asian leaders. It was the first time the leaders of India and Pakistan had

met since terrorists attacked the Indian parliament, one month earlier. In recent years, relations between India and Pakistan had rarely been worse.

Pakistan's president -- General Pervez Musharraf -- made the first effort to

ease tensions, extending his hand to Indian Prime Minister Atal Behari

Vajpayee. Mr. Vajpayee accepted the handshake, but said he wanted

more from Pakistan.

/// VAJPAYEE ACTUALITY ///

I am glad that President Musharraf extended a hand of friendship to me. I have shaken his hand in your presence. Now, President Musharraf must follow-up this gesture by not permitting any activity in Pakistan, or in any territory in its control today, which enables terrorists to perpetuate mindless violence in India.

/// END ACTUALITY ///

Indian officials blamed Pakistan-based militants, who support

separatism in Indian Kashmir, for the parliament attack. Pakistani officials

angrily denied any connection. In Nepal, General Musharraf pledged

to ease tensions.

/// MUSHARRAF ACTUALITY ///

My government remains ready to engage in a serious and sustained

dialogue with India, at all times and at all levels. Peace and

tranquility between Pakistan and India are essential for progress in

South Asia.

/// END ACTUALITY ///

General Musharraf followed up his pledge with action -- banning a host of

militant groups active in Indian-administered Kashmir and pledging not to permit the use of Pakistan-controlled territory for terrorism against India. Indian officials gave a cautious welcome to the measures and tensions seemed to ease.

The calm was not to last.

In May, suspected separatist militants attacked an army base in Indian-administered Kashmir, killing scores of women and children -- dependents of the troops based there. On a visit to Kashmir, following the attack, Prime Minister Vajpayee threatened retaliation against Pakistan. Western diplomats -- including U-S Deputy Secretary of

State Richard Armitage -- rushed to New Delhi and Islamabad to try to defuse the

crisis.

/// ARMITAGE ACTUALITY ///

I think, where tensions are high and troops face each other, there is

always the risk of war and, until that situation is changed, there will be

the risk. But, I think at the present time we are just trying to manage

things and bring down the tensions and temperature a little bit, so that

people of goodwill, on both sides of this question, can live prosperous

lives.

/// END ACTUALITY ///

American officials extracted a pledge from Pakistan President Pervez

Musharraf that he would work to halt all cross-border infiltration into

Indian Kashmir. Indian officials pledged to take a wait-and-see attitude,

but soon said that infiltration had, indeed, been curbed. Indian navy

ships, on war station in the Arabian Sea, returned to port and Indian

officials lifted a ban on Pakistan civilian aircraft overflying Indian

territory.

Several months later, voters in Indian Kashmir went to the polls, in

much-anticipated state assembly elections. Foreign diplomats monitored

the vote and called the elections free and fair. Despite separatist calls for a boycott, many Kashmiris went to the polls. Forty-six percent of eligible voters cast their ballots, allowing Indian officials to say their commitment to giving Kashmiris a political voice was having a real effect on easing tensions in Kashmir. Following the conclusion

of the elections, India announced it was pulling its troops back from the border with Pakistan.

/// OPT /// On a visit to New Delhi, South Asia expert Stephen Cohen

-- a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution -- said India achieved

virtually all of its diplomatic objectives.

/// OPTIONAL COHEN ACTUALITY ///

We were close to war. But, on the other hand, it was in India's

interest to make people believe we were close to a war. The Indian

strategy was to create the appearance of being on the edge of war, so

that the U-S would put pressure on Pakistan and that Pakistan would, in

turn, ease up on some of its support for cross-border terrorism. Now, the

Pakistanis have pledged they would do this to the Americans, the

question is holding the Pakistanis to this pledge and, from the

Pakistani perspective, this is one of the few instruments (cross-border

infiltrations) that they have to get the Indians to the bargaining

table. So, I think the ball is now in India's court, in terms of coming

up with ideas for a political dialogue which might eventually lead to

some sort of resolution or at least a diminution of the Kashmir

conflict.

/// END ACTUALITY ///

// OPT // As tensions eased senior American officials -- such as U-S Ambassador

to India Robert Blackwill -- said both countries should take the next step and

engage in dialogue.

/// OPTIONAL BLACKWILL ACTUALITY ///

We continue to believe that a resumption of serious dialogue between

India and Pakistan -- over the long term, sustained and serious on all the

issues that separate them, including Kashmir, is a good idea. We just

think that, as India and Pakistan face these differences, we think talking

about them in a serious way is better than not talking about them in a

serious way.

/// END OPTIONAL ACTUALITY ///

But Indian officials remained wary of dialogue with Islamabad. They

said -- despite Pakistans pledges to halt infiltration across the line of

control in Kashmir -- separatist militants were continuing to cross into

their territory and carry out terrrorist attacks.

/// OPT /// Indian officials also criticized U-S officials, saying

the United States condemned and fought terrorism around the world, but

ignored India's concerns over terrorism, because of a need to work with

Pakistan to fight the remnants of the Taleban and al-Qaida.

// OPT // So, despite pulling their troops back from their common border,

relations between India and Pakistan remained frozen in a South Asian

cold war. /// END OPT ///

Things did not improve, when, in December, Indian officials refused to confirm whether they would attend the next regional SAARC summit of South Asian leaders, scheduled for Islamabad in January.

Citing procedural rules, Pakistani officials promptly cancelled the

summit, ensuring that -- for the forseeable future -- there would be no

handshakes or dialogue between the leaders of Pakistan and India. (Signed)

neb/jlt/wd