Weapons of Mass Destruction (WMD)

DATE=12/11/02

TYPE=CORRESPONDENT REPORT

NUMBER=2-297342

TITLE= INDIA / GUJARAT / L-O

BYLINE=ANJANA PASRICHA

DATELINE=NEW DELHI

CONTENT=

VOICED AT:

INTRO: There is tight security across India's western Gujarat State, where Thursday elections will choose a new state government. As Anjana Pasricha reports, the

elections are seen as crucial for the Bharatiya Janata Party, which leads the federal

coalition and now controls Gujarat state.

TEXT: Thousands of police and paramilitary troops have been deployed across

Gujarat, where voters will choose between the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party and the main opposition Congress Party.

The elections take place several months after religious violence swept the state,

claiming the lives of more than one thousand people. The riots erupted after 58 Hindu activists on a train were killed in a fire started by a Muslim mob. The issue of religious violence dominated the election campaign of the Bharatiya-Janata Party.

The state's chief minister and prominent B-J-P leader, Narendra Modi, pledges to

crack down on terrorism and focus on security, if re-elected. He projects himself as a

strong Hindu leader who will protect the state's Hindu majority from Muslim militants.

His critics accuse him of campaigning on a platform of Hindu revivalism -- seeking to

divide Gujarat's population along religious lines.

Congress Party leaders urged voters to shun what they called Mr. Modi's hardline

Hindu politics. The party has also promised to concentrate on boosting the economy of

Gujarat -- one of the country's most prosperous states.

Independent political analyst Mahesh Rangarajan says both religious and economic

issues are likely to play a key role in the elections.

/ / / RANGARAJAN ACTUALITY / / /

In the immediate aftermath of the Godhra (site of train attack ) atrocity and the equally

macabre riots that followed, there was a very determined attempt to make this a

patriotism test in terms of polarizing the population. But as the campaign has worn on,

it's been clear that has not been the only issue. And, the usual questions of governance,

economy, law and order, water, power and schools -- all those have come back. We'll

know very soon whether the electorate in Gujarat values one or the other.

/ / / END ACTUALITY / / /

Several pre-election surveys indicate that the B-J-P will come back to power -- but with a reduced majority in the state that is considered its bastion. Political analysts say the election results in Gujarat will be critical in deciding the political fortunes of the B-J-P.

Earlier in the year, the party suffered a string of humiliating losses in key state elections,

and it is now in power in only four of India's 28 states. On the other hand, its main

rival -- the Congress Party -- controls 15 states.

A victory in Gujarat could give the B-J-P a much needed boost. But failure to perform

well could undermine the party's leadership of the federal coalition. (signed)

NEB / AP / WD