Weapons of Mass Destruction (WMD)

DATE=10-11-02

TYPE=FOCUS REPORT

TITLE=INDIA PAKISTAN PEACE

NUMBER=8-026

BYLINE=BRENT HURD

DATELINE=WASHINGTON

EDITOR=ED WARNER

INTRO: There are still nearly one million troops massed on the frontier separating nuclear powers India and Pakistan. However, a general cooling of tensions between the two countries has prompted at least a partial withdrawal of troops from the border. Surprising results in fresh elections in Kashmir and Pakistan have added a new dimension to the prospect of peace in South Asia. VOA's Brent Hurd takes a look at events on the border and at the ballot box.

TEXT: A hint of easing tensions is taking place on the frontier between Pakistan and India. After nearly a year of full mobilization, the Indian military is pulling back thousands of troops from the border. Pakistan says it will soon do the same.

Rajan Menon, a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, says the move brings a sigh of relief since these neighbors came to the brink of war earlier this year over tensions related to the disputed territory of Kashmir.

///MENON ACT///

There are signs of a withdrawal, and even if we are unclear yet as to whether this is the beginning of a deep major withdrawal, the very fact that troops are being withdrawn from the frontier by India is reassuring at a symbolic level.

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India sent troops to the frontier after an attack on its parliament in New Delhi last December by militants India says were aided by Pakistan, a charge Islamabad denies. Pakistan responded by rushing troops to the border. Nearly a million soldiers faced each other eyeball to eyeball along their common border in the months that followed.

U-S Assistant Secretary of State Christina Rocca says the military pull back is a positive move for both countries.

///ROCCA ACT///

This is a bold step we think, and one we warmly welcomed. And we equally welcomed that Pakistan immediately responded and said they would reciprocate. We are hoping this will now create an atmosphere where we can have a situation where both India and Pakistan will sit down and talk to resolve the numerous issues that divide them.

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The roots of the conflict in Kashmir go back to the 1947 partition of India and Pakistan as two separate states from British colonial rule. The rulers of the former princely states had the choice of joining either India or Pakistan. Kashmir hesitated and a vote to determine the outcome never took place. Today, the Himalayan mountain territory remains divided by a line of control between Indian and Pakistani-controlled areas.

India's present bone of contention with Pakistan is the numerous terrorist attacks it blames on Muslim Kashmiri separatists it claims are supported by Pakistan. Pakistan denies the charges, saying it only offers the separatists moral and political support against Indian rule.

The geographic tug-of-war has sparked two conflicts between the rivals in the last 50 years. An India-Pakistan arms race escalated in the 1990s, and reached nuclear proportions in 1998.

In Indian-controlled Kashmir, discontent with Indian rule culminated in a violent uprising in 1989. Rajan Menon connects the recent bloodshed to events of that year.

///MENON ACT///

The more immediate spate of violence and terrorism that we've seen goes back to the high tensions that have occurred in Kashmir since 1989 when during the last election, most Kashmiris felt the election was rigged, that they did not have an opportunity to state their preferences openly. It was badly handled, and the Indians had a great deal at stake this time around of making sure that despite the fragile and delicate security situation, there would be an election that would command a confidence not only from the outside world but of the Kashmiris.

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Analysts say this time around was a vast improvement over 1989. Kashmiris returned to the ballot box last month despite high tensions and some violence. With a respectable turnout of forty-four percent, independent observers say the voting was the fairest in a quarter century. Mr. Menon agrees.

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///MENON ACT///

It was certainly a major improvement over the '89 election. The turnout was quite good, and to the outside world it was a very positive step.

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Mr. Menon says the Kashmiris hope this government will represent their interests and provide equal rights.

///MENON ACT///

The scenario would be to have this coalition government create in Kashmir a government that demands the loyalty of Kashmiris. Ultimately, that has to be done because simply dealing with the problems of Kashmir by deploying troops in Kashmir is to make the Kashmiris feel like an occupied people and to really make the problem of terrorism much worse.

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The new leader of the Kashmiri coalition government, Mufti Muhammad Sayeed (moof TEE sah EED), has called for the withdrawal of Indian troops from Kashmir. He also favors dialogue with the militants and says he will investigate human rights abuses in Kashmir.

Assistant Secretary of State Christina Rocco agrees the election results could lead to a broader solution to Kashmir's problems.

///ROCCA ACT///

Our view is that overall, they were successful elections. I want to also say we view them as one step in a broader process, a broader long-term process that is aimed at bringing peace to the region. We don't see it as the ultimate solution to this problem. We certainly think that it has created the perception of the success of these elections within India, which has created an atmosphere where the Indian government will, we hope at least, begin to start dealing with the grievances of the Kashmiri people.

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These positive developments in Kashmir have been complicated by recent elections in Pakistan. In October, a group of anti-American Islamist parties made substantial gains and will be part of a new coalition in charge of the central government. The Mutahida Majlis-e-Amal (moo ta HEE da MAJ lees eh AH mal), or M-M-A, strongly opposes Pakistan's alliance with the United States. Analysts say the group believes Pakistani President Pervez Musharraf has become a tool of U-S foreign policy.

Mr. Menon says the Islamist parties may challenge President Musharraf's ability to clamp down on Muslim militants sympathetic to Kashmir's independence struggle.

///MENON ACT///

The real question I have always had is the degree to which he now is in a position to effectively deliver on the things he promises. There are many groups. Some of them have supporters and allies in the Pakistan military and Pakistan intelligence services, and if he wants to have an across-the-board tamping down of tensions and reigning in of such groups, it is not self-evident that will be the reality because of the degree to which he not be in control of the situation. Clearly, the election results signify to him that there is a substantial fraction of Pakistani population that is sympathetic to these groups.

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Anatol Lieven, an analyst with the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, says pressure from the Islamist parties could hinder President Musharaff's ability to prevent militants from crossing the line of control and attacking Indian-controlled Kashmir.

///LIEVEN ACT///

The question is whether this will lead to increased pressure on Musharraf and the Pakistani military to resume really serious support for the infiltrations. If they do that, I think relations between India and Pakistan, and, indeed, between Pakistan and the United States will worsen very drastically and very rapidly. One could easily see a replication of the really dangerous crisis we've seen at intervals over the past year.

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Christina Rocco says despite these challenges facing President Musharraf, the elections were an exercise in democracy.

///ROCCO ACT///

While there were some questions about the restrictions on candidate qualifications and campaigning, these elections were an important step towards the restoration of full democracy. We'll work with the new government when it is formed.

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While President Musharraf will try to maintain calm in Kashmir with the new Pakistani coalition, Mr. Menon says a further complication to his leadership is the prospect of a U-S strike against Iraq.

///MENON ACT///

The people who were elected have been long-term critics of not only the war against the Taliban but also of a Muslim country like Pakistan becoming a staging ground for attacks and operations against another Muslim country or group. I would also add that the war against Iraq, if it were to come around, would put Musharraf in a very difficult position. He has been doing something of a tightrope walk on that.

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One of the leaders of the Islamist M-M-A, Fazlur Rahman (FAZ loor RAH man), was named by the coalition as a possible candidate for prime minister. He has links with Libya and considers Osama bin Laden, the alleged mastermind of the September eleventh terrorist attacks, a holy warrior. Pakistani President Musharraf is likely to keep Mr. Rahman out of the post. Analysts, say, however, there are no guarantees that President Musharraf can continue to outmaneuver the influence of the newly empowered religious right.

Tensions between India and Pakistan have declined. Whether this will continue remains to be seen. For Focus, I am Brent Hurd.