Weapons of Mass Destruction (WMD)

DATE=10/25/02

TYPE=BACKGROUND REPORT

TITLE=INDIA / PAKISTAN

NUMBER=5-52467

BYLINE=JIM TEEPLE

DATELINE=NEW DELHI

CONTENT=

VOICED AT:

INTRO: India's Defense Minister says his country has begun pulling its

troops back from India's border with Pakistan. Pakistani officials say

they too will soon begin withdrawing troops from the border

region, but have not said when their de-mobilization will begin. The

troop pullback by both countries follows months of heightened tensions

between India and Pakistan, focused on the territory of Kashmir, which

both countries claim in its entirety. V-O-A's Jim Teeple reports from

our New Delhi bureau, analysts say while the troop pullback will ease

tensions, it is unlikely to lead soon to any significant new Indian diplomatic intiatives that might address long-term problems between South Asia's two nuclear neighbors.

TEXT: Indian officials say the troop pullback is restricted to personnel who serve along India's international border with Pakistan. Forces along

the line-of-control, which divides Kashmir between India and Pakistan

will stay where they are.

Hundreds of thousands of Indian troops were rushed to the border with

Pakistan, following a terrorist attack on India's parliament last

December that officials in New Delhi blamed on Pakistan-based Islamic

militants. Officials in Islamabad denied any involvement but tensions

kept rising between the two countries.

War seemed inevitable after suspected separatist militants killed scores

of women and children in an attack on an army base in

Indian-administered Kashmir in May. U-S and European diplomats

scrambled to defuse the crisis. American officials extracted a pledge

from Pakistan's President, General Pervez Musharraf, that he would work

to halt all cross-border infiltration in Indian Kashmir. Tensions eased

momentarily, but both countries kept their troops on the border -- a

hair-trigger away from war.

Stephen Cohen is an expert on both countries and a senior fellow at the

Brooking's Institution in Washington. Speaking in New Delhi recently he

said the Indian mobilization had achieved its objective and the troop

pullback makes sense now.

/// COHEN ACTUALITY ///

We were close to a war. But, on the other hand, it was in India's

interest to make people believe we were close to a war. The Indian

strategy was to create the appearance of being on the edge of war, so that the U-S would put pressure on Pakistan and that Pakistan would

in turn ease up on some of its support for cross-border terrorism. Now

the Pakistanis have pledged they would do this to the Americans, the

question is holding the Pakistanis to this pledge and from the

Pakistani perspective, this is one of the few instruments (cross-border

infiltration) that they have to get the Indians to the bargaining

table. So, I think the ball is now in India's court in terms of coming

up with ideas for a political dialogue which might eventually lead to

some sort of resolution, or at least a dimunition of the Kashmir

conflict.

/// END ACTUALITY ///

Indian officials say just-concluded state-assembly elections in Indian

Kashmir, where 46-percent of eligible voters cast ballots, show they are

committed to giving Kashmiris a political voice. U-S officials, who

worked tirelessly to pull both countries back from the brink of war

earlier this year, say the successful Kashmir vote now gives India space

to pursue other areas of descalation with Pakistan.

/// OPT /// Following a recent meeting with senior Indian officials in

New Delhi, U-S Ambassador Robert Blackwill called for descalation and

dialogue.

/// OPTIONAL BLACKWILL ACTUALITY ///

We continue to believe that a resumption of serious dialogue between

India and Pakistan over the long term - sustained and serious on all the

issues that separate them -- including Kashmir, is a good idea. We

just think that as India and Pakistan face these differences we think

talking about them in a serious way is better than not talking about

them in a serious way.

/// END OPTIONAL ACTUALITY END OPT ///

But, Indian officials say there will be no dialogue with Pakistan for

now. They say, no matter what the Pakistanis say, infiltration

continues across the line of control. Brahma Chellany, a professor of

security studies at New Delhi's Center for Policy Research says many

senior Indian officials are growing wary of U-S diplomatic intiatives in

the region.

//// CHELLANEY ACTUALITY ///

The Americans were saying right up to June that Pakistan has to cease

all flows of terrorism to India - it has to stop infiltration. But, now

the Americans are saying, are plugging a new line which is there should

be a simultaneous set of moves by India and Pakistan. India should

agree to dialogue with Pakistan, and the international community would

simultaneously exert pressure on Pakistan to halt infiltration into

India. Now, that is a reversal of the American position and I think it

is not going to well with the foreign ministry in Delhi. I know they

see this as a watering down of an earlier American position and they

believe pressure on Musharraf has eased from outside and that unless

there is sustained pressure on the Musharraf regime he will not deliver

on the terror front.

/// END ACTUALITY ///

Brahma Chellaney says another reason Indian officials are unlikely to talk

with Pakistan is that they have little to show for all of their

diplomatic and military activity centered on Kashmir this year.

He says violence and terror continue in Kashmir despite the holding of

elections and Pakistan's pledges to halt cross border infiltration.

Brahama Chellaney says when it comes to Pakistan and tensions over

Kashmir, India's politicians will simply wait for the next crisis to

develop. (Signed)

NEB/JLT/FC