31 May 2002
Powell Says Kashmir Crisis "Need Not Result in War"
(Says use of nuclear weapons would be "horrific") (3070)
Secretary of State Colin Powell repeated U.S. calls for Pakistan to
prevent infiltration activities into Kashmir, for India to exercise
restraint, and for both to consider the consequences of taking
military action.
"I hope that as they examine the situation ... they will exercise
maximum restraint while we wait and see what is happening over the
line of control. And I still feel there is a way out of this crisis
and it need not result in war," said Powell, speaking May 30 on the
Lehrer Newshour television news program.
Asked about the possibility that nuclear weapons could be used by one
or both sides, Powell said he had "made it clear that this really
can't be in anyone's mind." He said he felt that leaders on both sides
"are both sobered at the moment" by the possible consequences of such
actions.
"It would be horrific, in the year 2002, to see a second use of
nuclear weapons in history. The United States was the first user, to
stop a world war in 1945, and since then nuclear weapons have been
developed by other countries, to include these two, for deterrent
purposes. And we do not want to even contemplate the use of nuclear
weapons, and that is my message to both of them," said Powell.
Powell said Deputy Secretary of State Richard Armitage and Defense
Secretary Donald Rumsfeld are preparing to travel to the two countries
in the coming days to try to defuse tensions. He said the entire
international community is trying to prevent another war in South
Asia.
"[E]verybody is involved -- the entire international community," said
Powell "and we're using all of the tools available to us, with visits,
phone calls."
The secretary said the international community cannot solve the
crisis, but can "play a role in getting them talking to one another
and putting a process in place." He said the two sides would need to
have face-to-face discussions to come up with a solution.
Following is a transcript of Secretary Powell on the Lehrer Newshour
May 30:
(begin transcript)
U.S. DEPARTMENT OF STATE
Office of the Spokesman
For Immediate Release
May 30, 2002
2002/466
INTERVIEW
Secretary Of State Colin L. Powell On The Lehrer Newshour with Jim
Lehrer
May 30, 2002
(Aired 6:08 p.m. EDT)
MR. LEHRER: Mr. Secretary, welcome.
SECRETARY POWELL: Thank you.
MR. LEHRER: President Bush is sending Defense Secretary Rumsfeld to
India and Pakistan. What will be his mission?
SECRETARY POWELL: Well, it will be another individual going over on
behalf of the international community, especially the United States,
to talk to the leaders of these two countries to try to keep them
from, frankly, getting into a conflict with each other. We are working
very hard with both sides. As you know, the European Union was in last
week. Chris Patten, my colleague the British Foreign Secretary Jack
Straw was in just within the past few days. The two leaders, Prime
Minister Vajpayee and President Musharraf, will be meeting with
President Putin -- individually, not together -- in Alma-Ati, and then
Deputy Secretary Armitage is going in early next week. And since
Secretary Rumsfeld is going to be in Europe and in the Gulf region
around the 8th or 9th of June, it made sense for him to also go into
those two countries and see what he could do to help defuse tensions,
and also visit our troops in the region as well.
MR. LEHRER: So it should not be seen as a decision on the part of the
President that this is more of a military problem than a diplomatic
problem; that's why Secretary Rumsfeld is going instead of you?
SECRETARY POWELL: Oh, it's very much a diplomatic matter at this time.
But Secretary Rumsfeld has visited over there before, and I'm in
constant touch with the leaders on both sides, and I'm sending my
Deputy in the next few days to go over. So we use all the assets
available to us, and since Secretary Rumsfeld was going to be in the
region it made sense for him to go in.
MR. LEHRER: How close are India and Pakistan to war?
SECRETARY POWELL: I am afraid that it is a very tense situation. I
can't tell you how close to a war they might be. What we are trying to
do is make sure they never reach that point. We are pressing President
Musharraf very hard to cease all infiltration activities on the part
of terrorist organizations across the line of control, and we are
asking the Indians to show restraint until we can determine whether or
not that infiltration activity has ceased. And if it has ceased, then
there will be a basis for the Indians to reciprocate by starting to
deescalate, moving down the mobilization ladder, and then hopefully
other actions and other steps can be taken after that.
So right now it is a tense situation. We are worried about it. That's
why everybody is involved -- the entire international community -- and
we're using all of the tools available to us, with visits, phone
calls. The President follows this situation on a daily basis, and
we're getting Deputy Secretary Armitage ready to go in now. And my
conversations with the leaders are on an almost every-other-day basis.
MR. LEHRER: President Musharraf said this morning, as I'm sure you
know, Mr. Secretary, that he was considering taking some of his troops
from the -- moving them from the border with Afghanistan to the border
with India. That is an ominous sign, is it not?
SECRETARY POWELL: Well, it's even more reason that we want to get a
handle on this crisis and start moving it in the other direction,
because if he were to do that and felt it was necessary to do that,
then that would take away from our campaign against al-Qaida and
remaining Taliban forces in western Pakistan who crossed over from
eastern Afghanistan. So we're trying to avoid that, and that's another
good reason why Secretary Rumsfeld will be able to deliver a strong
message, since he is concerned about that issue and its effect on
Operation Enduring Freedom.
MR. LEHRER: If there is, in fact, a conflict, how likely is it that it
would eventually lead to the use of nuclear weapons by these two
countries?
SECRETARY POWELL: I can't answer that question, but I can say this. In
my conversations with both sides, and especially with the Pakistani
side, I have made it clear that this really can't be in anyone's mind.
I mean, the thought of a nuclear conflict in the year 2002, with what
that would mean with respect to loss of life, what that would mean
with respect to the condemnation -- the worldwide condemnation -- that
would come down on whatever nation chose to take that course of
action, would be such that I can see very little military, political
or any other kind of justification for the use of nuclear weapons.
Nuclear weapons in this day and age may serve some deterrent effect,
and so be it, but to think of using them as just another weapon in
what might start out as a conventional conflict in this day and age
seems to me to be something that no side should be contemplating.
MR. LEHRER: Now, when you said that to President Musharraf, what
response did you get?
SECRETARY POWELL: I have a clear understanding from President
Musharraf that he understands that message and that he sees things in
the same way. But at the same time, you know he is a president of a
country that has such weapons under his control and they possess such
weapons, and so you don't get ironclad guarantees with these kinds of
issues and in this dangerous situation. And so I will continue to
discuss with both sides how important it is for us to start moving in
the other direction, and not toward conflict, with all the unintended
consequences that often come with conflict.
MR. LEHRER: And you delivered that same message to the Indian side?
SECRETARY POWELL: I have been in touch with the Indians. I haven't...I
am sure that in the days ahead I will have an opportunity to convey
the message in the same way. I started really speaking about nuclear
issues this past week with President Musharraf.
MR. LEHRER: But as we sit here right now, you have no assurance from
either side that if this thing comes to conflict that either one or
both won't end up using nuclear weapons?
SECRETARY POWELL: Yes, but I really don't want to sort of fall into
that trap of saying because I have no assurance that means it's going
to happen. I think both of these leaders understand the grave
consequences associated with the use of nuclear weapons in the event
of a conventional conflict between the two of them, what starts out as
a conventional conflict.
And I think they are both sobered at the moment by what those
consequences are. It would be horrific, in the year 2002, to see a
second use of nuclear weapons in history. The United States was the
first user, to stop a world war in 1945, and since then nuclear
weapons have been developed by other countries, to include these two,
for deterrent purposes. And we do not want to even contemplate the use
of nuclear weapons, and that is my message to both of them.
MR. LEHRER: For folks who have not followed the India-Pakistan dispute
over Kashmir -- it's been going on for many, many years -- how would
you define it in its simplest terms? What is it that has brought these
two countries to the brink of war?
SECRETARY POWELL: It is a very sensitive issue between the two sides.
There are political consequences, religious issues involved in it. It
has been an intractable problem for 50 years. It has to do with the
various populations that coexist within Kashmir, and they have never
been able to find a political way to solve this difficult problem that
really has been there since the formation of these two countries.
A number of US administrations over the years have tried to play a
role in finding a way forward; the UN has tried, others have tried,
and have not been successful. I think if we get this crisis moving in
the other direction and start down the de-escalatory ladder, we really
do need to once again see if we can start a dialogue between the two
sides, discuss issues that are existing between them, and ultimately
discuss Kashmir and how to get past this 50-year impasse.
MR. LEHRER: But again, as we sit here now, there's not even a peace
plan on any table anywhere, is there?
SECRETARY POWELL: There are a number of ideas and plans that have been
out there for many, many years, but right now there is nothing active
before the two parties for them to consider.
MR. LEHRER: Are you considering coming up with one, a US plan? Say,
"Hey, look, here's a way to go; if you can just back down, we'll help
you try to resolve this"? Have you considered doing that?
SECRETARY POWELL: I don't think you can come in with any outside plan.
I think the two sides have to discuss this with each other. I don't
think there is a role at this point for a mediator to come in from the
outside. I think this is something that has to be dealt with between
the two sides. And outsiders can play a role in getting them talking
to one another and putting a process in place, but it's a plan that
they will have to come up with.
MR. LEHRER: Why won't they talk to each other right now?
SECRETARY POWELL: Well, they have had some very bad experiences in
recent years as they have tried to talk to one another. Their
conferences -- the Agra meeting of a year or two ago did not turn out
well. So there's a lack of trust between the two sides, a lack of good
faith between the two sides on this issue, and we've got to get beyond
that as well.
MR. LEHRER: What is the US stake in this?
SECRETARY POWELL: Well, the US stake is a large one. We have good
relations with both countries, and especially with Pakistan in the
last six months as a result of the strategic choice that President
Musharraf made. They have joined us in the campaign against terrorism.
We also have good relations with India, and we were on the upswing
with respect to our bilateral relations. We want to keep that going.
It becomes immensely more difficult if they are involved in a conflict
with each other, a conflict that does have the potential of becoming
nuclear, even though we hope that everybody will realize this makes
absolutely no sense.
And it also affects, or could affect, our campaign against terrorism
and the work we're doing in Afghanistan with Operation Enduring
Freedom. As you noted earlier, if troops are diverted from working
with us to capture al-Qaida and Taliban remnants back to the border
with India, the border that is so tense right now, it takes away from
our overall campaign against terrorism.
And it simply would not be good for the world right now to see this
kind of a regional conflict break out between these two nations.
MR. LEHRER: Salman Rushdie, the writer, had a piece on the op-ed page
of The New York Times this morning, and he said, "Kashmir is
everybody's problem. Right now, it's the most dangerous place in the
world."
Do you agree with him, Mr. Secretary?
SECRETARY POWELL: It is certainly one of the most dangerous places in
the world. I would agree with that. I think the Middle East can also
be seen as a very dangerous place. But even as dangerous as the Middle
East is, the consequences that can flow from something in the Middle
East don't rise to the sorts of consequences that can flow from a
conflict between India and Pakistan, as we have already discussed.
MR. LEHRER: What about evacuating American citizens from India and
Pakistan? Have you made a decision yet on recommendations about that?
SECRETARY POWELL: We have put out advisories to travelers that it
would be best to avoid traveling into that region right now, tourists
and others, and we are examining this very afternoon what our policies
should be with respect to any drawdown of our presence in the country.
And when we are through with that review and consulted with others in
the administration, as well as our allies, we'll be making appropriate
announcements if any change is warranted.
MR. LEHRER: Is it true -- USA Today had a story today which said there
were roughly 65,000 Americans, I think that was the round figure -- in
both of the countries -- most of those in India. Is that correct?
SECRETARY POWELL: The numbers are in that range, and my best
information, even higher than that. But that really reflects those we
know about that we have records on, or who have at least checked in
with our embassies. There may well be thousands more who are there
living in the country that we are not aware of or are not keeping
track of or haven't checked in to us to register themselves in our
tracking system. So it is a large number of the order of magnitude
that you just mentioned, or even higher.
MR. LEHRER: Mr. Secretary, finally on this issue, do you have the --
is there an urgency to it? I mean, are you and your colleagues, not
only here in the US administration but all the others you mentioned
earlier -- the EU and Jack Straw and others -- do you have a feeling
that if something -- if these folks don't stand down fairly soon, this
thing could blow up?
SECRETARY POWELL: There is an urgency to it. We are deeply concerned.
The situation has not improved in the last month or so. We were
receiving assurances from President Musharraf that infiltration
activity across the line of control would be ended, but unfortunately
we can still see evidence that it was continuing. He has now given
assurances again, and these assurances are more positive, and we hope
he is now giving the necessary orders and taking all the necessary
actions to stop the infiltration.
And if we see that, if everybody can detect the end of this kind of
infiltration activity, then we have a basis for calling upon the
Indians to start moving in the other direction with respect to their
mobilization and preparation for attack actions.
And so there is a sense of urgency and there are also some weather
issues as to when you actually could mount such an operation before
the monsoon season starts later in the summer. So there is a sense of
urgency, and that's why we are all involved -- the European Union,
bilaterally with many of our friends. I have spoken to the Chinese
Foreign Minister and I know that they have engaged themselves. Prime
Minister Blair has been making calls. President Chirac of France has
been calling and Kofi Annan has been making calls. So we are all
heavily engaged in trying to find a way out of this crisis.
MR. LEHRER: In its simplest terms, Mr. Secretary, is it that if India
does not get evidence that the infiltration has stopped, that they're
going to take military action sooner rather than later?
SECRETARY POWELL: I would not presume to speak for the Indian
Government. It's always a political decision as to whether or not
military action will be taken in a democracy such as India, but I hope
that as they examine the situation and as they look at the
consequences of what could -- the consequences that could flow from
such a decision, that they will exercise maximum restraint while we
wait and see what is happening over the line of control. And I still
feel there is a way out of this crisis and it need not result in war.
MR. LEHRER: Mr. Secretary, thank you very much.
SECRETARY POWELL: Thank you.
###
(end transcript)
(Distributed by the Office of International Information Programs, U.S.
Department of State. Web site: http://usinfo.state.gov)
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