Weapons of Mass Destruction (WMD)

DATE=07/13/01

TYPE=BACKGROUND REPORT

NUMBER=5-49790

TITLE=INDIA / PAKISTAN / SUMMIT

DATELINE=NEW DELHI

BYLINE=JIM TEEPLE

VOICED AT=

///EDS: THIS IS THE SECOND OF TWO BACKGROUNDERS ON THE SUMMIT FROM TEEPLE. SEE 5-49779 FROM 7/12.

SEE ALSO, MUSHARRAF / ANCESTRAL HOME, 5-49780 BY ANJANA PASRICHA. FOR SUGGESTED SATURDAY USE.

AND, INDIA / PAK - LINE OF CONTROL, 5-49782 BY JON TKACH. THERE WILL BE AN ADDITIONAL TKACH PIECE FILED TODAY FOR SUGGESTED SATURDAY USE. ///

INTRO: The leaders of India and Pakistan will have a get-acquainted session a few hours from now (Eds. at about 1200 UTC Saturday) in preparation for a summit that begins Sunday in Agra, the north Indian city that is home of the legendary Taj Mahal. Both sides are playing down expectations for the summit, especially on the issue of Kashmir. V-O-A's Jim Teeple reports from New Delhi that while expectations for the summit may be low, the two leaders need a successful summit to boost their sagging political fortunes.

TEXT: India's Prime Minister Atal Behari Vajpayee is said to view Pakistan's President, General Pervez Musharraf with suspicion holding him responsible for a mini-war in Kashmir's Kargil region two years ago when armed intruders occupied Indian military bunkers on the Indian side of the "line of control," that separates Indian and Pakistani-held territory in Kashmir.

More than a thousand Indian troops died trying to oust the intruders. The fighting took place just weeks after Mr. Vajpayee had traveled to Lahore, Pakistan to meet with then Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif. That was the last time the leaders of India and Pakistan met. Since then General Musharraf seized and consolidated power and Mr. Vajapayee has won re-election to another term as prime minister. Brahma Chellaney, a leading security analyst in New Delhi says both men will be thinking of their political futures when they sit down to talk in Agra.

/// CHELLANEY ACT///

For Vajpayee and Musharraf, this summit is tactically advantageous. For Prime Minister Vajpayee his initiative in inviting Musharraf, he has managed to deflect attention away from his political problems. No one is talking about his intra-coalition challenges or about bribery scandals or about his coalition's poor showing in recent state elections in India. Similarly for Musharraf, dialogue with India is important for improving Pakistan's image with multi-lateral and bi-lateral creditors. It is important to build his regime's legitimacy in the eyes of the West and most importantly it allows him a military figure to show he has diplomatic skills.

/// END ACT ///

In recent days the rhetoric surrounding the summit has hardened on both sides, with General Musharraf calling the disputed territory of Kashmir the "core" issue of the summit. Senior Indian officials have responded by saying the "core' issue at the summit will be what they call "cross-border terrorism" in Kashmir. Kanti Bajpai, a professor of International Studies at Jawarharlal Nehru University in New Delhi says rhetoric aside, both sides seem to have a desire to see the summit succeed.

/// BAJPAI ACT///

Who would have said three months ago that there would be a summit between these two. The Indian government's formal stand at that time was as long as Islamabad continued to aid the militancy India would not talk to Pakistan. Now the Pakistani's have done some good things militarily, but they have not stopped aiding the militants. So the Indian government has made a fairly dramatic departure from a public position admittedly a position that was not tremendously tenable in the long run, but it has it went out and sent out this invitation. And I think the Pakistani's have responded well they could have come back and put conditionalities on the talks that would have humiliated the Indians but they did not. And to the extent that there are any discussions on Kashmir this summit must be counted as a success.

/// END ACT///

// BEGIN OPT // Senior officials from both countries have hardened their respective positions in recent days on the issue of Kashmir, making it unlikely the summit will see any major breakthroughs. But Brahma Chellaney says it is also important for both sides to showcase the summit as a success by the time it ends on Monday.

/// OPTIONAL CHELLANEY ACT //

For both Vajpayee and Musharaff a failed summit is dangerous politically. But that does not guarantee a successful summit. So the official spin will be heavy. They are going to try and tell their domestic constituencies that they made some progress. Now the question is whatever their nation is will they buy that? And will it be tangible progress. Will it be progress on which they can build upon through follow up steps? I think they will certainly show they will try and show they made progress at Agra. I cannot believe they will go back saying the summit failed.

/// END OPTIONAL ACT///

When he was asked what his definition of a successful summit would be, India's Foreign Minister Jaswant Singh replied that he would consider it a success if the summit led simply to an improved atmosphere between India and Pakistan. That modest goal will likely be chanted like a mantra in the coming days by officials from both India and Pakistan eager to claim some measure of success from a summit that few believe will result in any substantive breakthroughs. (Signed)

NEB/JLT/PFH/KBK