Weapons of Mass Destruction (WMD)

DATE=7/8/2001

TYPE=BACKGROUND REPORT

NUMBER=5-49752

TITLE=PAK/INDIA SUMMIT

BYLINE=AYAZ GUL

DATELINE=ISLAMABAD

CONTENT=

VOICED AT:

INTRO: Leaders of India and Pakistan are meeting in the Indian city of Agra next week to discuss their long-running conflict over the divided region of Kashmir. But experts say the chances are slim the summit will end with a far-reaching accord to settle the 54-year old dispute. Islamabad reporter Ayaz Gul looks at the situation.

TEXT: Pakistan's leader General Pervez Musharraf is due to arrive in India July 14th to hold the first talks with Indian Prime Minister Atal Behari Vajpayee. The meeting in the city of Agra is expected to focus on the Kashmir dispute, which has caused two of the three wars between India and Pakistan.

For more than half a century, the dispute over the Himalayan region of Kashmir has been a constant source of military tensions between India and Pakistan. The divided region pushed the South Asian nations to the brink of a fourth war in 1999, when Indian troops fought Pakistan-backed fighters in the Kargil region of Kashmir.

General Musharraf says he is going to India with an open mind. But he told reporters (Friday) that he will have only one item on his agenda, Kashmir.

/// MUSHARRAF ACT ///

We have a desire to remove this tension (over Kashmir), remove this irritant, and remove this dispute. From my side, 50-percent is my part, but I am not responsible for the other 50-percent. My going there and succeeding is not dependent on me. It is dependent also on Prime Minister Vajpayee. I can not dictate terms to Prime Minister Vajpayee.

/// END ACT ///

India controls two-thirds of Kashmir and says the region is its integral part. Pakistan insists it is a disputed territory and that people in Kashmir be allowed to vote on its status. Analysts maintain that the gap between the countries is too big, therefore there is little chance of achieving a breakthrough in the upcoming meeting between President Musharraf and Mr. Vajpayee.

Najmuddeen Sheikh is Pakistan's former foreign secretary.

/// SHEIKH ACT ///

It would be un-realistic to entertain very high expectations from the initial, first, meeting. I think if we can make some progress towards moving slowly in a direction where an agreement can eventually be fleshed out that would be a significant achievement. But it would be overly optimistic to talk about a breakthrough beyond that.

/// END ACT ///

Islamabad residents say they support the summit meeting. They say tensions between India and Pakistan can be reduced only through such a dialogue. Hinna Khan is a school teacher.

/// KHAN ACT ///

I think it is about time that the two countries take a step forward in that direction, because I do not think that we can solve our problems by war. It has to be solved by talk, by contact with people, by bringing about awareness of each other's problems, and by making agreements.

/// END ACT ///

India and Pakistan tested their nuclear devices in 1998, raising fears that a future war between the two countries can lead to the use of nuclear weapons.

Ahmed Nair is a leading anti-nuclear activist in Islamabad.

/// NAIR ACT ///

I think it is very essential that they talk to each other and find ways of de-escalating tensions in this region. This region has far too many sources of tensions and any one of them can flare up to unmanageable proportions. It is therefore important that, wherever possible, there should be de-escalation.

/// END ACT ///

Pakistan's President Musharraf says the fact that India has invited him to discuss Kashmir makes him hopeful about the outcome of the summit.

/// MUSHARRAF ACT ///

I am optimistic because I have been invited. Nobody in the past has ever been invited to discuss the Kashmir issue. This is the first time that the head of state from Pakistan has been invited to India for a dialogue. We have never entered into a dialogue willingly with no pressures. Previously heads of states have met but that was under some special circumstances. This time there is no circumstance other than a genuine desire, maybe, to talk to each other.

/// END ACT ///

There have been many rounds of peace talks between the two countries, but all of them deadlocked over Kashmir. This time around India has adopted a conciliatory approach. It has announced that it will free hundreds of Pakistani prisoners, offer scholarships to Pakistani students, and send its military operations chief to discuss a reduction in tensions with his Pakistani counterpart.

General Musharraf has made similar gestures. But observers say such moves are designed to score points before the summit. They maintain that the two leaders will have almost nothing to concede on the negotiating table.

/// REST OPT ///

A controversy over whether Pakistani leader General Musharraf would meet separatist Kashmir leaders during his visit has already threatened the pre-summit mood of cooperation. India opposes the meeting between General Musharraf and leaders of a major separatist alliance of Indian Kashmir, saying they have no role in the summit. New Delhi accuses Islamabad of aiding the separatist groups in Kashmir, a charge Pakistan denies. (SIGNED)

NEB/AG/RAE/FC