Weapons of Mass Destruction (WMD)
The NBC Bombshell
New Delhi The Pioneer 23 June 2000 p 9
by Anil Narendra, Editor of Vir Arjun:
The US television network, NBC, recently made
a startling disclosure: That Pakistan's nuclear arsenal is bigger than
India's and that Pakistan has better and more advanced missile delivery
systems than India. The impression in this country all this while has
been that India was far ahead of its traditional rival in the field of
nuclear technology and arsenal both in terms of quantity as well as
quality. After all, India exploded its first nuclear device in 1974
whereas Pakistan did so in May 1998. In other words, India had a
headstart of more than 24 years over Pakistan.
Quoting US intelligence officials, NBC reported that Pakistan's
nuclear arsenal was vastly superior to that of India's with up to "five
times the nuclear warheads" and far more accurate and effective delivery
systems. The original US estimate was that Pakistan had 10 to 15
nuclear weapons while India had 25 to 100. But they now say that they
may have overstated India's "homegrown" arsenal and that the bigger
number (25 to 100) better applies to Pakistan. What several of the
officials, unidentified mostly, told the network is that the crucial
element is delivery of nuclear payloads in which Islamabad is said to be
far ahead of New Delhi, especially in ballistic missiles.
One voice of authority quoted in the report was that of Marine Corps
General Anthony Zinni of the US Central Command, who said: "Don t assume
that the Pakistan's nuclear capability is inferior to India s," he said.
A recent US Defence Department analysis of India's capability and
readiness, quoted by the network, says India may have a "handful of
nuclear bombs" may be about five and the delivery systems needed to
launch them is "seriously lagging". The document also suggests that
India has no nuclear capable missiles and fewer aircraft to deliver
nuclear payloads than Pakistan. Pakistan is now estimated to possess 30
nuclear-capable missiles the Chinese made M-11 short-range missiles and
its Pakistani variant, the Tarnuk, as well as the North Korean Nodong
intermediate range missiles, called the Ghauri
In reaction to the NBC revelation a foreign office spokesman of
Pakistan said the report "will encourage India to defy efforts to prevent
a nuclear build up". India's reaction to the report was nonchalant:
Foreign Office spokesman Raminder Singh Jassal, said, "India's nuclear
program is based on our requirement to have minimum nuclear deterrent and
is not country specific."
Why then did NBC break this story which, it now appears, has no
takers in both India and Pakistan? A report or assessment of this nature
can only be made by a US Government security or a strategic assessment
agency, and not some private corporation. Was the information leaked to
the TV channel? If it is indeed a leak and happens to be a correct
assessment then one motive behind the report could be to focus on the
dangerous fallout of a nuclear and missile race in South Asia. Perhaps
this report is to warn the two countries of their respective nuclear
strength as both the sides go by guesswork in the absence of precise and
definite information. Or are the Americans trying to warn India about
Pakistan? Or is the US trying to rattle India at a time when it is caught
in the Kashmir tangle? Or is it a ploy to pressurize India into signing
the CTBT?
The US is actively involved in the ongoing dialogue between the
leaders of the All India Hurriyat Conference and the Government of India.
Does the US Administration, through this leak, intend to send a signal
to India, that it must settle the Kashmir issue now, and that if it is
under the impression that it is the pre-eminent power in the region then
it is wrong?
If there is truth in this report, it should not strain our credulity.
Remember Zulfiqar Ali Bhutto's resolve: We are prepared to eat grass,
but we will make the bomb. Pakistan has been trying to beat India in
the nuclear race for a long time. It has tried every trick in the
trade, from stealing nuclear blueprints from abroad, parts, to fissile
materials including technology transfer from China and North Korea.
Pakistan was able to carry out its nuclear tests within weeks of the
surprise Indian tests in 1998. It certainly had ready-to-use know-how
and weaponry, which had already been tested and perfected. Therefore,
while India still requires extensive testing, Pakistan does not. Also,
at the end of the day, the morality of a country's nuclear might or
acquisition does not matter. If Pakistan has begged, borrowed and
stolen nuclear secrets, it has acted with cunning and guile in order to
score in a vital area over India. Then, is the leak connected with US's
internal politics, this being the election year? According to defence
expert K Subrahmanyam, the national missile defence (NMD) plan would be a
major topic for debate. The Republican Party has a more hawkish posture
on it though a significant number of Democrats too are keen on it. The
justification for the NMD plan is the threat from emerging nuclear,
missile-holding states other than the five established nuclear powers.
Pakistan's powerful arsenal can threaten Israel and US assets in West
Asia. Without naming Pakistan as a rogue state, the story focuses on
continuing threat of missile and nuclear proliferation which justifies
the proposed NMD efforts. Also it should not be forgotten that Pakistan
has a strong lobby in the US. An inflated report on its nuclear status
may serve a number of purposes. If Pakistan is projected as a powerful
nuclear and missile state, it would be important for the US to
mollycoddle it.
Regardless of the intent(s) behind the report, India should use this
NBC story to its advantage. It is obvious that the Indian Government
cannot reveal anything that pertains to its nuclear status. However,
the Government must accept the shortcomings in its nuclear policy and its
failures. I believe that India is behind Pakistan in both the missiles
as well as delivery systems. The Prithvi was never designed for nuclear
delivery and even the Agni has had no more than one test. Even a
country like Russia had to conduct 11 tests before inducting its latest
Topal-M ballistic missile. With its missile force of M-11 (Shaheen)
missiles of Chinese origin and the Nodong (Ghauri) of North Korean
origin, Pakistan has a deployable missile capacity. The IAF still does
not have anything to match Pakistan's F-16s.
India cannot afford to drop its guard. Since the spectre of two
unfriendly, autocratic, nuclear armed northern neighbors has been
reinforced, India must go ahead with the expansion of its nuclear arsenal
at full throttle. Most importantly, the disclosures made by NBC are yet
another reason for India not to sign the NPT and the CTBT in its present
form. If need be, the Indian leadership must reassess India's nuclear
capability.
Finally, the Indian Government must counter such leaks and propaganda
with effective information campaign. This is essential as such stories,
even when they are planted, have a demoralizing effect on our security
forces. Further such reports act as a morale booster for jihadis and
assorted ISI-backed outfits to intensify their proxy war against India.
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