DATE=10/4/1999
TYPE=BACKGROUND REPORT
TITLE=INDIA ELECTION REACT
NUMBER=5-44404
BYLINE=JIM TEEPLE
DATELINE=NEW DELHI
CONTENT=
VOICED AT:
INTRO: Exit polls in India indicate Prime Minister
Atal Behari Vajpayee and his multi-party alliance will
likely form the next government. But the Polls
suggest Mr. Vajpayee will not have much more of a
majority than he did six-months ago when his
government collapsed after a parliamentary confidence
vote. Correspondent Jim Teeple reports it appears
India has emerged from months of campaigning and weeks
of voting without the political stability that many
voters said they wanted.
Text: Indians woke up after five-weeks of staggered
voting to find exit polls telling them the government
that returns to power in New Delhi will closely
resemble the one that was defeated by one-vote in a
parliamentary confidence motion six-months ago.
The results of the election will not be known until
later this week. But most exit polls say the
Bharatiya Janata Party-led coalition will have about a
dozen votes more than a simple majority in India's
545-seat lower house. That will enable Prime Minister
Atal Behari Vajpayee to form the next government.
Editorials in the country's leading dailies are
pessimistic. "The Times of India" says -- Hot air,
floods, blood, death and abuse are the legacies of
India's 1999 election.
Bombay's stock exchange, India's largest, closed lower
on the mixed poll results. Brokers say selling
pressures will likely continue if it looks like the
new government cannot enact economic reforms because
of a weak majority.
// OPT // The polls indicate Sonia Gandhi, the
Italian-born widow of former Prime Minister Rajiv
Gandhi and the leader of the Congress Party was unable
to defeat Mr. Vajpayee. But the exit polls also
appear to show the Congress Party has picked up seats
and will be a formidable opposition in the next
session. // END OPT//
The question being asked in India following its
marathon election is -- Was it worth it, if not much
has changed?
The chairman of the Center for Media Studies in New
Delhi, N. Bhaskar Rao, says most Indians voted hoping
for stability after three elections in three years.
The head of the independent polling group says that is
not what they will get.
// INSERT RAO ACTUALITY //
Stability is nowhere in sight. I see the next
election well before five-years. In fact, I see
another election in two-years.
// END ACTUALITY //
// OPT // That is not the result that either of the
two main candidates -- Sonia Gandhi and Atal Behari
Vajpayee -- say they want. The last B-J-P led
coalition lasted just 13-months before being defeated
in April. Mr. Vajpayee's government was brought down
after one of his coalition partners withdrew support.
If the exit polls are correct, Mr. Vajpayee will
return to power as head of an even more unwieldy
coalition made up of more than 20 parties. // END OPT
//
With a slim majority in Parliament, many people in
India are asking how long it will be before one of the
Prime Minister's coalition partners withdraws support,
precipitating another crisis.
N. Bhaskar Rao, of the Center for Media Studies, says
the election has only made things worse for ordinary
Indians.
// INSERT RAO ACTUALITY //
Instability for the country, bad for the
economy, it has been bad for nearly everybody.
In fact, this election has been good for none --
except perhaps for the pollsters who must have a
lot of money -- and also perhaps for the media
because they got a lot of business out of it.
So I think, on the whole, the country has lost a
billion dollars because what this election
really cost the country was a billion dollars.
// END ACTUALITY //
A new government must be in place no later than
October 21st. Its first task will be to prepare for a
November visit by Pope John Paul, who is coming to
India as tensions rise between the country's tiny
Christian minority and Hindu nationalists.
President Bill Clinton says he too wants to visit
India once a new government is installed, and that
will require the new government to address the issue
of signing the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty.
Other contentious issues a coalition government might
have difficulty addressing are whether to restart the
suspended dialogue with Pakistan, how to proceed with
economic reforms, and how to pay for the costs of this
year's Kashmir fighting. (SIGNED)
NEB/JLT/RAE
04-Oct-1999 10:04 AM LOC (04-Oct-1999 1404 UTC)
NNNN
Source: Voice of America
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