DATE=8/21/1999
TYPE=ON THE LINE
TITLE=ON THE LINE: THE INDIA-PAKISTAN CRISIS
NUMBER=1-00769 SHORT # 1
EDITOR=OFFICE OF POLICY - 619-0037
CONTENT=
INSERTS AVAILABLE IN AUDIO SERVICES
THEME: UP, HOLD UNDER AND FADE
Anncr: On the Line - a discussion of United
States policy and contemporary issues. This week,
"The India-Pakistan Crisis." Here is your host, --
------.
Host: Hello and welcome to On the Line.
Sporadic fighting in Kashmir between Indian troops
and Muslim militants continues, but the danger of
a full-scale conflict between India and Pakistan
appears to have receded. Earlier this year, India
and Pakistan seemed to be moving toward improved
relations. The prime ministers of both nations
met in Lahore, Pakistan in February, the first
such visit by an Indian leader in a decade. The
dialogue was seen as all the more important since
both countries had conducted successful nuclear
weapons tests last year. When fighting in Kargil
broke out in May, it provoked worldwide concern
because, as Pakistan Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif
said, "Kashmir is a nuclear flashpoint."
Stephen Cohen is a senior fellow at the Brookings
Institution. He says that Pakistan miscalculated
in Kashmir, but there is little danger of
escalation.
Cohen: Apparently, Nawaz Sharif decided to give
permission for an incursion by the Pakistan
military or something supported by the Pakistan
military. And either it was larger than he thought
it would be or it got out of hand. It was more
successful than he thought it would be, and the
Indians suffered at least a tactical military
defeat. I think, though, that Lahore and Kargil,
these two extremes, do represent the way in which
the countries relate to each other. Kashmir has
been a contentious issue between the two countries
for a long time, but I think they have worked out
a relationship where they will not let Kashmir get
out of hand.
Host: Michael Krepon is president of the Henry
Stimson Center. He says that neither Pakistan nor
India is approaching the Kashmir problem sensibly.
Krepon: Pakistan's Kashmir problem is that
Pakistan's Kashmir policy is an insurgency policy.
And the more Pakistan resorts to the use of the
gun within Kashmir, the more the gun becomes
prevalent within Pakistan itself. And so
Pakistan's Kashmir policy threatens Pakistan. And
it does not help Kashmiris. India also has a
Kashmir problem. India's Kashmir problem is that
India's governance has not done real well in the
Indian states of Kashmir and Jammu. India's
approach to Kashmir has had only one track, which
is fighting insurgency. And every Indian scholar
who has looked at Kashmir has come to the same
conclusion. A one-track policy for Kashmir is not
going to work.
Host: Zalmay Khalilzad is director of the strategy
and doctrine program at the RAND Corporation. He
says that there is no short-term solution.
Khalilzad: I think that the problem is not only
India, but the problem is also Pakistan because
each of the alternatives, except one in which the
whole of Kashmir comes and joins Pakistan, poses
Pakistan with extreme dilemmas and challenges.
But I think what we need to do is to become more
engaged in preparing the grounds for a settlement
over the longer term. The near term is to manage
the crisis and prevent it from getting out of
control.
Host: Stephen Cohen from the Brookings
Institution says that the Kashmir crisis shows the
need for U.S. policy to broaden its focus beyond
the non-proliferation issue in south Asia to deal
with the political problems between India and
Pakistan. For On the Line, this is --------.
Anncr: You've been listening to "On the Line" - a
discussion of United States policies and
contemporary issues. This is --------.
20-Aug-1999 13:41 PM EDT (20-Aug-1999 1741 UTC)
NNNN
Source: Voice of America
.
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