DATE=8/18/1999
TYPE=CORRESPONDENT REPORT
TITLE=INDIA-POPULATION
NUMBER=2-252888
BYLINE=ANJANA PASRICHA
DATELINE=NEW DELHI
CONTENT=
VOICED AT:
INTRO: United Nations demographers say India's
population crossed the one-billion mark sometime
around mid August, when the nation celebrated the 52nd
anniversary of its independence from Britain. India's
census officials say the billion mark will not be
reached until a few months later in the new millenium.
Social scientists and experts say - whenever it
happens - it demonstrates India's inability to come to
grips with its population problem. From New Delhi,
Anjana Pasricha has a report.
Text: There is much debate on whether the billionth
baby has already arrived in India - or will be born in
the coming months. Demographers say inaccurate data on
births and deaths makes it difficult to establish the
exact date of this event. It may have occurred late
last year - or may not happen until May next year.
One of the country's most prominent social scientists,
Ashish Bose, says in either case the implications are
the same.
///Insert Bose Act///
What they (demographers) are saying is as we enter the
new millennium, the 21st century, there will only be
two countries in the world with a population of more
than one billion out of which China has already
crossed that quite some time back and we are the
second country. And at the rate at which we are
going, we may be the first country in the world
exceeding China's population.
///End Bose act///
India's population is now three times higher than at
Independence in 1947. This huge increase is partly due
to the fact that mortality rates have declined more
rapidly than fertility rates due to better health care
services.
But experts point out the one billion mark is being
reached despite the fact that India has the world's
oldest official family planning program. This was
launched 50 years ago when planners recognized the
enormous problems the growing numbers would pose.
The program has prevented millions of births. But
critics say it has failed to spread the message about
the need to limit numbers, or provide people with
effective birth control and reproductive health
services. As a result India adds 17 million people to
the world every year.
This growing population is not evenly spread through
the country. Several southern and western states have
had extraordinary success in slowing population
growth, largely due to higher levels of literacy.
But enormous concern centers on four large states
where development has been slow and literacy has
lagged behind. Mr. Bose says in the states of Bihar,
Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan, the
birth rate is much higher than the national average.
///Insert Bose Act///
The (population) share of these four large states
which have become demographic liabilities will
increase. Now it is 40 per cent, it will increase to
45 per cent, 50 per cent, 60 per cent at this rate.
That will create a demographic imbalance.
///End Act///
Director of the the Population Foundation of India, K.
Srinivasan, says even in these states the problem can
be tackled if the government keeps pace with a growing
demand for family planning services. He says the
population control program has slowed down in recent
decades - after political leaders became unnerved by
the widespread outrage over a forced sterilization
program launched in the mid-1970's.
But according to Mr. Srinivasan, recent surveys
suggest people want - but are not getting access to
birth control services.
///Insert Srinivasan act///
All the surveys which have been done said there has
been an enormous unmet need for family planning. There
are almost 30 per cent of couples who do not want any
more children or who don't want a child now for the
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