DATE=06/23/99
TYPE=U-S OPINION ROUNDUP
NUMBER=6-11349
TITLE=A HOT, BUT COLD WAR OVER KASHMIR
BYLINE=ANDREW N. GUTHRIE
TELEPHONE=619-3335
DATELINE=WASHINGTON
EDITOR=ASSIGNMENTS
CONTENT=
INTRO: THOUGH MUCH OF THE WORLD'S MEDIA ATTENTION IS STILL
FOCUSED ON YUGOSLAVIA'S KOSOVO PROVINCE, A POTENTIAL TROUBLE SPOT
NEAR THE "TOP OF THE WORLD" IS GARNERING SOME ATTENTION.
HIGH IN THE WORLD'S TALLEST MOUNTAIN RANGE, IN SUB-ZERO COLD,
PAKISTAN AND INDIA, THE TWO NEWEST MEMBERS OF THE NUCLEAR CLUB,
HAVE SQUARED OFF OVER YET ANOTHER TERRITORIAL DISPUTE REGARDING
KASHMIR. THE FIGHTING BEGAN MORE THAN A MONTH AGO AND IS GAINING
MORE AND MORE ATTENTION IN THE EDITORIAL COLUMNS OF THE UNITED
STATES PRESS. WE HAVE A SAMPLING NOW FROM _________________ IN
TODAY'S U-S OPINION ROUNDUP.
TEXT: ABOUT SIX WEEKS AGO, INDIA DISCOVERED A WELL-ARMED BAND OF
SEVERAL HUNDRED FIGHTERS HAD INFILTRATED ONTO KASHMIRI TERRITORY
CONTROLLED BY INDIA, ABOUT 55-HUINDRED METERS UP IN THE
HIMALAYAS. THE INDIAN AIR FORCE SENT FIGHTER PLANES TO DISLODGE
THE FIGHTERS, WITHOUT SUCCESS. SO FAR, TWO PLANES HAVE CRASHED,
AND ONE INDIAN PILOT WAS KILLED.
PAKISTAN SAYS THE FIGHTERS ARE N O T OPERATING WITH ITS
PERMISSION OR SUPPORT, BUT INDIA DENIES THE CLAIM. JAMMU AND
KASHMIR IS THE ONLY INDIAN STATE WITH A MUSLIM MAJORITY, AND
THERE HAS BEEN A DECADES-LONG INSURRECTION BY SOME OF THE LOCAL
PEOPLE, WHO WOULD LIKE TO JOIN PAKISTAN, A PREDOMINANTLY MUSLIM
NATION.
"THE FLORIDA TIMES-UNION" IN JACKSONVILLE HAS THIS CANDID
APPRAISAL OF THE DANGER.
VOICE: BEYOND ANY DOUBT, THE WORST CRISIS IN THE WORLD IS IN
KASHMIR. ... THE SPECTER OF AN ALL-OUT WAR WAS RAISED
LAST MONTH AFTER THE NEW DELHI GOVERNMENT DISPATCHED
TROOPS TO DISLODGE REBELS WHO HAD CROSSED THE BORDER
INTO (INDIAN KASHMIR) AND SEIZED MOUNTAIN RIDGES ABOVE A
VITAL ROADWAY. PAKISTANI AND INDIAN SOLDIERS UNLEASHED
FURIOUS ARTILLERY BARRAGES ALONG THE (LINE OF CONTROL),
IN THE MOST INTENSE FIGHTING SINCE THE LAST FULL-SCALE
WAR - - ... IN 1971. ... SINCE BOTH COUNTRIES HAVE
NUCLEAR WEAPONS CAPABILITY, THAT HAS BROUGHT ABOUT
SPECULATION OF A DEVASTATING NUCLEAR WAR - - AND CALLS
FOR THE DISPATCH OF INTERNATIONAL PEACEKEEPERS,
INCLUDING AMERICANS .... BUT IT IS DOUBTFUL THAT INDIA
WOULD ACCEPT AMERICAN INVOLVEMENT ... BESIDES, THE
UNITED STATES ALREADY IS OVEREXTENDED. ... THE UNITED
STATES HAS DONE ENOUGH. LET SOMEONE ELSE HELP.
TEXT: THERE IS DEEP CONCERN IN THE HEARTLAND OF THE NATION AS
WELL, AS WE HEAR IN THIS COMMENTARY FROM "THE INDIANAPOLIS
[INDIANA] NEWS."
VOICE: WHILE THE INTERNATIONAL FOCUS HAS BEEN ON THE BALKANS,
HALFWAY AROUND THE WORLD ANOTHER SMOLDERING
INTERNATIONAL TROUBLE SPOT HAS THREATENED TO BURN OUT OF
CONTROL. ALTHOUGH BOTH COUNTRIES HAVE MADE PEACE
OVERTURES ... RECENT CLASHES BETWEEN INDIAN AND
PAKISTANI FORCES OVER .... KASHMIR COULD BE MORE
DANGEROUS THAN FIRST IMAGINED. ... BOTH INDIA AND
PAKISTAN ARE MEMBERS OF THE NUCLEAR CLUB, ABLE TO HURL
NUCLEAR-TIPPED MISSILES AT ONE ANOTHER'S POPULATION
CENTERS. SOME ANALYSTS PREDICT THAT AT LEAST 200
MILLION PEOPLE WOULD DIE IN SUCH AN EXCHANGE. ... IN
THE PAST, U-N EFFORTS IN THE AREA HAVE BEEN RELATIVELY
UNSUCCESSFUL. PERHAPS A NEW REGIONAL GROUP, MODELED
ALONG THE LINES OF SEATO [THE SOUTH EAST ASIAN TREATY
ORGANIZATION, SIMILAR TO NATO], WOULD HAVE A BETTER
CHANCE AT ENDING CRISES LIKE THIS ONE BEFORE THEY
DESCEND INTO MADNESS.
TEXT: IN BOSTON, "THE CHRISTIAN SCIENCE MONITOR" LAMENTS:
VOICE: THIS BATTLE OVER A BIT OF BEAUTIFUL BUT UNINHABITABLE
LAND COULD SEEM OF LITTLE MOMENT -- EXCEPT FOR THE
POSSIBILITY OF ESCALATION BY TWO NUCLEAR-ARMED NATIONS.
THE LATEST OUTBREAK OF WAR IN KASHMIR UNDERSCORES THE
NEED TO FINALLY RESOLVE THIS DISPUTE. ... THE LAHORE
DECLARATION, SIGNED BY THE LEADERS OF THE TWO COUNTRIES
IN FEBRUARY, WAS A RARE STEP TOWARD GREATER COOPERATION
BETWEEN PAKISTAN AND INDIA. IT SHOULD BE BUILT UPON TO
END THE FIGHTING AND MOVE ON TO WIDER PEACEMAKING.
TEXT: "THE MIAMI HERALD" HAS THESE THOUGHTS ON THE CONFLICT.
VOICE: WITH BOTH INDIA AND PAKISTAN VOWING NOT TO BACK DOWN,
THE DUSTUP COULD GET UGLY FAST. THE WORLD HAS SURVIVED
MORE THAN A HALF-CENTURY WITHOUT A NUCLEAR EXCHANGE
BETWEEN ADVERSARIES -- AND THERE IS N O SUGGESTION
THAT THIS WILL HAPPEN IN THIS DISPUTE. BUT THIS FIGHT
I S A RECIPE FOR DISASTER. IT INVOLVES PROUD BUT
BELLIGERENT ADVERSARIES, EACH OF WHOM HAS DEFIED GLOBAL
PRESSURE FOR NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT IN THE PAST YEAR BY
TESTING AND BUILDING NUCLEAR WEAPONS. ... PEACEMAKERS,
INCLUDING THE UNITED STATES, MUST ACT NOW - - BEFORE IT
IS TOO LATE.
/// OPT ///
TEXT: "THE BOSTON GLOBE" ALSO COUNSELS RESTRAINT ON ALL SIDES.
VOICE: ... THE LINE OF CONTROL ...A DE-FACTO BORDER ... NEEDS
TO BE RESPECTED IF PEACE IS TO BE MAINTAINED. ANY
ATTEMPT BY INDIA OR PAKISTAN TO CHANGE IT BY FORCE COULD
LEAD TO CATASTROPHE. PAKISTAN SAYS THE INFILTRATORS WHO
WENT ACROSS THE LINE IN MAY ARE ISLAMIC FREEDOM FIGHTERS
BEYOND ITS CONTROL. BUT THEY ARE CLEARLY THERE AT THE
BIDDING OF THE PAKISTANI MILITARY. INDIA HAS THE
STRENGTH TO PUSH THEM OUT, BUT TO DO SO WITHOUT
PROHIBITIVE LOSS OF LIFE WOULD MEAN OUTFLANKING THE
INFILTRATORS. THIS WOULD MEAN THAT INDIAN ARMY UNITS
WOULD HAVE TO CROSS THE LINE OF CONTROL THEMSELVES TO
GET BEHIND THE INFILTRATORS, ESCALATING THE CRISIS.
/// END OPT ///
TEXT: AND FINALLY, THIS SUGGESTION FOR RESOLVING THE DISPUTE
FROM "THE NEW YORK TIMES."
VOICE: NO RAPPROCHEMENT CAN OCCUR WITHOUT SOME SORT OF A
POLITICAL RESOLUTION OF KASHMIR'S STATUS. ANY SUCH
SOLUTION WOULD PROBABLY HAVE TO BE A CREATIVE MIXTURE OF
SELF-GOVERNMENT FOR THE KASHMIRIS WITH SOME KIND OF
POLITICAL ASSOCIATION WITH BOTH INDIA AND PERHAPS
PAKISTAN. BUT NO SOLUTION CAN BE ACHIEVED UNDER THE
THREAT OF MILITARY ACTION. THE NEXT STEP MUST COME FROM
PAKISTAN, WHICH SHOULD ENCOURAGE OR PERHAPS EVEN FORCE
THE MILITANTS FROM THEIR INCURSION INTO INDIAN
TERRITORY. THEN TALKS CAN COMMENCE ON STEPS TO IMPROVE
RELATIONS AND EVENTUALLY SETTLE THE STATUS OF KASHMIR.
TEXT: THAT CONCLUDES THIS SAMPLING OF COMMENT FROM THE U-S PRESS
ON THE DISPUTE OVER KASHMIR BETWEEN INDIA AND PAKISTAN.
NEB/ANG/KL
23-Jun-99 1:39 PM EDT (1739 UTC)
NNNN
Source: Voice of America
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