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DATE=4/15/99
TYPE=CORRESPONDENT REPORT
NUMBER=2-248126
TITLE=INDIA / POLITICS / L
BYLINE=JIM TEEPLE
DATELINE=NEW DELHI
CONTENT=
VOICED AT: 
INTRO:  DEBATE BEGAN IN INDIA'S PARLIAMENT THURSDAY OVER THE FATE
OF PRIME MINISTER ATAL BEHARI VAJPAYEE'S 15-MONTH COALITION 
GOVERNMENT.  INDIA'S PRESIDENT ASKED THE PRIME MINISTER TO SEEK A
VOTE OF CONFIDENCE AFTER A KEY COALITION PARTNER WITHDREW FROM 
THE GOVERNMENT, WEDNESDAY.  V-O-A'S JIM TEEPLE REPORTS A VOTE OF 
CONFIDENCE COULD COME AT ANY TIME, BUT IS NOT EXPECTED UNTIL 
SATURDAY. 
TEXT:  A CONFIDENT PRIME MINISTER VAJPAYEE SAYS HIS GOVERNMENT 
WILL SURVIVE THE CONFIDENCE VOTE, WHICH IS EXPECTED MIDDAY 
SATURDAY.   
FOLLOWING THE WITHDRAWAL OF THE COALITION PARTNER, MR. VAJPAYEE 
WAS LEFT WITH ABOUT 245 SEATS -- WELL BELOW THE 272 SEATS HE 
NEEDS TO COMMAND A MAJORITY IN THE 545-SEAT LOK SABHA -- THE 
LOWER HOUSE OF PARLIAMENT.  
IN A SHIFT FROM ITS EARLIER POSITION, THE OPPOSITION CONGRESS 
PARTY SAYS IT IS NOW WILLING TO LEAD A COALITION, IF THE 
GOVERNMENT FALLS.  MADHAVRAO SCINDHIA -- THE GENERAL SECRETARY OF
THE CONGRESS PARTY AND A MEMBER OF  PARLIAMENT -- SAYS THE 
NUMBERS DO NOT LOOK GOOD FOR MR. VAJPAYEE. 
            // SCINDHIA ACTUALITY //
         OBVIOUSLY THE ARITHMETIC OF THE LOK SABHA (LOWER HOUSE 
         OF PARLIAMENT) SEEMS TO BE AGAINST THE B-J-P COALITION 
         GOVERNMENT.  I THINK THE PRESIDENT HAS BEEN VERY CORRECT
         IN ASKING THEM SEEK THE VOTE OF CONFIDENCE AGAIN IN THE 
         HOUSE.
            //  END ACTUALITY  //
//  OPT //  LAST YEAR, MR. VAJPAYEE SURVIVED A VOTE OF CONFIDENCE
BY 13 VOTES.  NOW THE PRIME MINISTER IS SEEKING TO STAY IN POWER 
WITH THE HELP OF SMALLER REGIONAL POWERS. // OPT //
THE VOTE IN THE LOK SABHA IS REGARDED AS TOO CLOSE TO CALL.  IF 
THE PRIME MINISTER LOSES, HE MUST LEAVE OFFICE.  IF HE LOSES AND 
NO GOVERNMENT CAN BE FORMED, NEW ELECTIONS WILL BE CALLED FOR THE
THIRD TIME IN FOUR YEARS.  GEORGE FERNANDEZ -- INDIA'S DEFENSE 
MINISTER AND THE LEADER OF THE SMALL SAMATA (EQUALITY) PARTY, A 
COALITION PARTNER OF MR. VAJPAYEE -- SAYS HE BELIEVES THE PRIME 
MINISTER WILL SURVIVE A VOTE OF CONFIDENCE AND THAT NEW ELECTIONS
COULD ALSO BE WON BY THE CURRENT GOVERNMENT. 
            // FERNANDEZ ACTUALITY //
         IF THERE IS GOING TO A POLL IT WILL BE BETTER FOR THE 
         COUNTRY, BECAUSE YOU WILL THEN HAVE A MUCH STRONGER 
         GOVERNMENT THAT WE WILL BE ABLE TO GET. 
            //  END ACTUALITY //
IF THE OPPOSITION CONGRESS PARTY FORMS THE NEXT GOVERNMENT, 
INDIA'S MOST-LIKELY PRIME MINISTER WOULD BE SONIA GANDHI -- THE 
ITALIAN-BORN WIDOW OF FORMER PRIME MINISTER RAJIV GANDHI.  A NEW 
POLL RELEASED THURSDAY BY THE "TIMES OF INDIA" MEDIA GROUP, SAYS 
THREE-QUARTERS OF INDIANS SURVEYED BELIEVE SONIA GANDHI WOULD NOT
MAKE A BETTER PRIME MINISTER THAN ATAL BEHARI VAJPAYEE.   
(SIGNED) 
NEB / JLT / WD / WD 
15-Apr-99 6:02 AM EDT (1002 UTC)
NNNN
Source: Voice of America
.