DATE=9/22/98
TYPE=BACKGROUND REPORT
NUMBER=5-41425
TITLE=INDIA-PAKISTAN
BYLINE=DOUGLAS BAKSHIAN
DATELINE=NEW DELHI
CONTENT=
VOICED AT:
INTRO: THE PRIME MINISTERS OF INDIA AND PAKISTAN ARE EXPECTED TO
MEET WEDNESDAY AT THE UNITED NATIONS GENERAL ASSEMBLY SESSION IN
NEW YORK. POLITICAL ANALYSTS SAY THE MEETING WILL LIKELY NOT
PRODUCE MUCH OF SUBSTANCE BUT WILL HELP REDUCE TENSIONS BETWEEN
THE OLD RIVALS. VOA NEW DELHI CORRESPONDENT DOUGLAS BAKSHIAN
REPORTS.
TEXT: INDIAN LEADER ATAL BEHARI VAJPAYEE AND PAKISTANI PRIME
MINISTER NAWAZ SHARIF ARE EXPECTED TO TALK ABOUT TALKS. INDIAN
NEWS REPORTS SAYS THE TWO WILL LIKELY ANNOUNCE THE RESUMPTION OF
DISCUSSIONS BETWEEN THEIR FOREIGN SECRETARIES.
THIS HIGH-LEVEL DIALOGUE BROKE DOWN LAST SEPTEMBER BECAUSE OF
DIFFERENCES OVER KASHMIR, A DISPUTED TERRITORY OVER WHICH INDIA
AND PAKISTAN HAVE FOUGHT TWO WARS. POLITICAL ANALYSTS SAY NEW
DELHI AND ISLAMABAD ARE READY TO RESUME THE FOREIGN SECRETARY
TALKS BECAUSE BOTH NATIONS ARE IN A VULNERABLE POSITION
DIPLOMATICALLY. BRAHMA CHELLANY, OF NEW DELHI'S CENTER FOR POLICY
RESEARCH, SAYS MORE INTERNATIONAL ATTENTION IS FOCUSED ON INDIA
AND PAKISTAN IN THE WAKE OF THEIR NUCLEAR TESTS AND BOTH WANT TO
APPEAR COOPERATIVE.
// CHELLANY ACT //
AS FAR AS INDIA IS CONCERNED IT WANTS TO PRESENT ITSELF
AS A REASONABLE STATE, A STATE THAT IS WILLING TO LIVE
IN PEACE WITH ITS NEIGHBORS. AND AS FAR AS PAKISTAN IS
CONCERNED, AT A TIME WHEN IT IS FACING A CRISIS OF
STATE, AND THE NAWAZ SHARIF GOVERNMENT IS UNDER SIEGE AT
HOME, ISLAMABAD WOULD FEEL SOME DIPLOMATIC GAINS IF A
DIALOGUE WITH INDIA CAN BE RESTARTED.
// END ACT //
WHILE THE SIDES WILL BE TALKING THEY MAY NOT ACHIEVE MUCH OF
SUBSTANCE. DESPITE THIS, MR. CHELLANY SAYS THEY WILL CREATE A
POSITIVE ATMOSPHERE THAT COULD EVENTUALLY LEAD TO PROGRESS ON BIG
ISSUES.
// CHELLANY ACT //
THE GOVERNMENTS IN BOTH PAKISTAN AND INDIA ARE
POLITICALLY QUITE WEAK AND I DON'T THINK EITHER SIDE IS
IN A POSITION TO MAKE SUBSTANTIAL CONCESSIONS. BUT I
THINK THAT BY RESTARTING FOREIGN SECRETARY LEVEL TALKS
THEY WOULD HELP CREATE THE RIGHT ATMOSPHERE FOR THE
FUTURE SO THAT IF TALKS GO WELL, AND THERE IS
WILLINGNESS ON BOTH SIDES A DEAL COULD BE WORKED OUT ON
SOME OF THE CONTENTIOUS ISSUES IF NOT ON KASHMIR.
// END ACT //
POLITICAL AUTHOR BABANI SENGUPTA OFFERS A SIMILAR VIEW. IN THE
SHORT TERM HE EXPECTS LITTLE FROM THE RESUMPTION OF THE
FOREIGN-SECRETARY TALKS. BUT HE SAYS OVER TIME THERE COULD BE
IMPORTANT RESULTS.
// SENGUPTA ACT //
IT DOES NOT MEAN THAT THERE WILL BE IMMEDIATELY ANY
AGREEMENT ON KASHMIR, FAR FROM THAT. BUT WHAT WE CAN
EXPECT IS A MORE RELAXED ATMOSPHERE BETWEEN THE TWO
COUNTRIES AND A CONTINUING LONG-TERM DIALOGUE ON
KASHMIR. AND THE DIALOGUE ON OTHER ISSUES, WHICH WILL BE
MORE PRODUCTIVE.
// END ACT //
THOSE OTHER ISSUES INCLUDE TRADE AND FINANCE. BUSINESS LEADERS IN
BOTH PAKISTAN AND INDIA HAVE ADVOCATED OPEN TRADE TIES. THERE IS
ALREADY AN ESTIMATED TWO-BILLION DOLLARS IN ILLEGAL TRADE BETWEEN
THE NATIONS. BY LEGALIZING IT BOTH GOVERNMENTS WOULD GAIN
MUCH-NEEDED REVENUE AND THE PSYCHOLOGICAL CLIMATE BETWEEN THE
NATIONS WOULD BE EASED AS WELL.
/// REST OPT /// WEDNESDAY'S MEETING WILL BE THE SECOND BETWEEN
MR. VAJPAYEE AND MR. SHARIF. THE LEADERS MET IN JULY AT A
REGIONAL SUMMIT IN SRI LANKA BUT LATER THE SIDES ACCUSED EACH
OTHER OF REMAINING STUCK IN OLD POSITIONS. (SIGNED)
NEB/DB/PLM
22-Sep-98 6:28 AM EDT (1028 UTC)
NNNN
Source: Voice of America
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