DATE=9/14/98
TYPE=CORRESPONDENT
REPORT NUMBER=2-238604
TITLE=INDIA/SECURITY (L-O)
BYLINE=ANJANA PASRICHA
DATELINE=NEW DELHI
CONTENT=
VOICED AT:
INTRO: CROSS-BORDER ARTILLERY EXCHANGES BETWEEN INDIA AND
PAKISTAN ALONG THE DISPUTED KASHMIR FRONTIER HAVE ESCALATED SINCE
BOTH COUNTRIES CONDUCTED NUCLEAR TESTS IN MAY -- NEARLY 100
PEOPLE HAVE DIED, AND SCORES HAVE BEEN WOUNDED ON BOTH SIDES.
ANJANA PASRICHA SPEAKS TO A U-S SECURITY ANALYST WHO IS TOURING
BOTH COUNTRIES TO STUDY THE SITUATION.
TEXT: THE CROSS-BORDER FIRING BETWEEN INDIA AND PAKISTAN IN
KASHMIR IS ROUTINE -- BUT TENSIONS HAVE BEEN HIGHER THAN USUAL IN
RECENT MONTHS, RAISING INTERNATIONAL CONCERN.
THE HEAD OF THE HENRY L. STIMSON CENTER, A RESEARCH ORGANIZATION
IN WASHINGTON, IS MEETING MILITARY AND GOVERNMENT OFFICIALS IN
BOTH INDIA AND PAKISTAN. MICHAEL KREPON HAS ALSO VISITED THE
KASHMIR BORDER.
MR. KREPON SAYS THE SECURITY SITUATION BETWEEN THE TWO COUNTRIES
HAS DETERIORATED SINCE THEIR RECENT NUCLEAR TESTS.
/// INSERT KREPON ACT ///
THEY (THE TESTS ) HAVE RESURFACED TENSIONS BETWEEN THE TWO
COUNTRIES THAT WERE EBBING PRIOR TO THE TESTS. THEY HAVE CREATED
MANY NEW PRESSURES AND DIFFICULTIES IN KASHMIR, ESPECIALLY ALONG
THE LINE OF CONTROL, THEY HAVE FREED UP UNCONVENTIONAL WARFARE
OPTIONS WHICH WE ARE NOW BEGINNING TO SEE. THEY HAVE WEAKENED,
SPECIALLY IN PAKISTAN, THEY HAVE BADLY WEAKENED THE ECONOMY, AND
THE NEGATIVE TREND LINES WITHIN PAKISTAN HAVE BEEN ACCELERATED BY
THE TESTS.
/// END KREPON ACT ///
ACCORDING TO MR. KREPON, THE INCREASED VIOLENCE IN KASHMIR SINCE
THE TESTS IS RAISING CONCERN BECAUSE THERE IS NO EVIDENCE OF
STEPS TO REDUCE THE NUCLEAR DANGERS IN THIS CONFLICT ZONE. INDIA
AND PAKISTAN HAVE FOUGHT TWO WARS OVER THE DISPUTED KASHMIR
REGION.
/// INSERT KREPON ACT ///
WE WORRY ABOUT THE UNCONVENTIONAL ACTS THAT ARE GOING ON, THE
ACTS OF TERROR, THE FIRING, THE ARTILLERY EXCHANGES BETWEEN INDIA
AND PAKISTAN, AND WE WONDER HOW MUCH RESTRAINT CAN BE SUSTAINED
UNDER THESE CONDITIONS. I BELIEVE THAT DURING THE MONTHS OF JULY
AND AUGUST THE AMOUNT OF ORDINANCE THAT WAS EXPENDED BETWEEN
INDIA AND PAKISTAN WAS EQUAL TO THE AMOUNT OF ORDINANCE EXPENDED
IN THE LAST TWO WARS. NOW THIS IS A VERY DANGEROUS GAME. IT IS
A VERY SERIOUS SITUATION. OUTSIDERS ARE LOOKING FOR ESCALATION
CONTROL MEASURES, AND NUCLEAR RISK REDUCTION MEASURES THAT DO NOT
NOW EXIST BETWEEN INDIA AND PAKISTAN.
/// END KREPON ACT ///
MR. KREPON SAYS INDIAN AND PAKISTANI ARMIES MUST IMMEDIATELY OPEN
BETTER COMMUNICATION CHANNELS, AND THE TWO GOVERNMENTS SHOULD
BEGIN A SERIOUS DIALOGUE TO RESOLVE CONTENTIOUS ISSUES.
HE SAYS DOMESTIC POLITICS IS HOLDING THE INDIAN GOVERNMENT BACK
FROM SIGNING THE COMPREHENSIVE TEST BAN TREATY, THOUGH MOST
OFFICIALS FAVOR SUCH A STEP.
// OPT //
/// INSERT KREPON ACT ///
DOMESTIC POLITICS IS A VERY DIFFICULT PROCESS IN INDIA, IT IS
NOT CONSENSUS ORIENTED RIGHT NOW, THE GOVERNMENT HAS TO MAKE THE
ROUNDS AND TRY TO GET THE CONSENT OF OTHER PARTIES BEFORE
PROCEEDING, BUT THE LONGER INDIA WAITS TO SIGN THE C-T-B-T, THE
MORE IT WILL BE ISOLATED INTERNATIONALLY, AND THE MORE HARM WILL
BE DONE TO INDIA'S CREDIBILITY.
/// END KREPON ACT ///
// END OPT //
ACCORDING TO MR. KREPON, IMPROVING SECURITY THROUGH STABILIZATION
MEASURES MUST BECOME A PRIORITY FOR BOTH NATIONS. (SIGNED)
NEB/RAE
14-Sep-98 7:45 AM EDT (1145 UTC)
NNNN
Source: Voice of America
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