DATE=7/27/98
TYPE=BACKGROUND REPORT
NUMBER=5-41017
TITLE=VAJPAYEE-SHARIF MEETING
BYLINE=DOUGLAS BAKSHIAN
DATELINE=COLOMBO
CONTENT=
VOICED AT:
INTRO: INDIAN POLITICAL ANALYSTS SAY THEY ARE NOT EXPECTING MUCH
FROM A MEETING BETWEEN THE PRIME MINISTERS OF PAKISTAN AND INDIA
IN COLOMBO WEDNESDAY, BUT THEY SAY THE DIALOGUE IS IMPORTANT
BECAUSE IT SENDS A POSITIVE SIGNAL. V-O-A CORRESPONDENT DOUGLAS
BAKSHIAN REPORTS FROM COLOMBO.
TEXT: THIS WILL BE THE FIRST MEETING BETWEEN PAKISTANI PRIME
MINISTER NAWAZ SHARIF AND INDIAN LEADER ATAL BEHARI VAJPAYEE
SINCE THEIR COUNTRIES SET OFF NUCLEAR TESTS IN MAY, PROMPTING
CONCERNS ABOUT INCREASED TENSIONS IN THE REGION.
BRAHMA CHELLANY OF THE CENTER FOR POLICY RESEARCH (IN DELHI) SAYS
THE SESSION WILL SEND AN IMPORTANT SIGNAL, BUT WILL NOT LIKELY
PRODUCE ANYTHING OF SUBSTANCE.
/// FIRST CHELLANY ACT ///
BY MEETING TOGETHER IN COLOMBO THE TWO LEADERS CAN TELL
THEIR PEOPLE AND TELL THE WORLD THAT DESPITE THEIR
RECENT SERIES OF NUCLEAR TESTS AND THE TENSIONS THAT
HAVE ARISEN BETWEEN INDIA AND PAKISTAN, THAT THE CHANNEL
OF COMMUNICATIONS BETWEEN INDIA AND PAKISTAN REMAINS
INTACT. SO IN THAT SENSE IT WILL BE AN IMPORTANT P-R
(PUBLIC RELATIONS) MEETING BUT I DON'T THINK WE CAN
EXPECT ANYTHING SUBSTANTIVE TO EMERGE.
/// END ACT ///
MR. CHELLANY SAYS NEITHER LEADER IS IN A STRONG ENOUGH POSITION
TO MAKE CONCESSIONS TO THE OTHER.
// SECOND CHELLANY ACT //
BOTH THESE PRIME MINISTERS ARE FACING DIFFICULT
POLITICAL SITUATIONS AT HOME. THE PAKISTANI PRIME
MINISTER SHARIF IS UNDER SIEGE. HIS OPPONENTS ARE
TRYING TO OUST HIM. MR. VAJPAYEE, THE INDIAN PRIME
MINISTER, IS TRYING TO HOLD ON TO HIS JOB. HIS
COALITION GOVERNMENT IS QUITE FRAGILE. THERE IS A DANGER
THAT HIS GOVERNMENT MIGHT COLLAPSE IN THE COMING MONTHS,
AND NEITHER SIDE HAS THE ROOM TO MAKE MAJOR
CONCESSIONS TO THE OTHER.
/// END ACT ///
MR. VAJPAYEE'S NARROW COALITION IS THREATENED BY ONE POWERFUL
PARTY LEADER WHO HAS BEEN MAKING HINTS ABOUT PULLING OUT. IN
PAKISTAN, MR. SHARIF'S STANDING HAS BEEN DEVASTATED BY AN
ECONOMIC CRISIS THAT HAS SENT THE RUPEE AND VITAL
FOREIGN-EXCHANGE RESERVES TO DANGEROUS LOWS.
P-R CHARI OF THE INSTITUTE OF PEACE AND CONFLICT STUDIES (IN
DELHI) SAYS THAT UNDER SUCH CONDITIONS IT IS A POSITIVE
DEVELOPMENT THAT THE SIDES ARE EVEN MEETING.
/// CHARI ACT ///
SO YOU HAVE, IN SHORT, A WEAK AND A WEAKER PRIME
MINISTER WHO HAVE TO SORT OF BOTHER ABOUT THEIR DOMESTIC
CONSTITUENCIES. AND WHAT KIND OF AGREEMENTS THEY COULD
REACH BETWEEN THEMSELVES, I'M NOT PARTICULARLY
HOPEFUL ABOUT. EXCEPT, AS (WINSTON) CHURCHILL ONCE
SAID, IT IS BETTER TO "TALK-TALK" RATHER THAN "WAR-WAR."
AND TO THAT EXTENT, ANY KIND OF CONTACT BETWEEN THE TWO
LEADERS AT THAT LEVEL IS IMPORTANT.
/// END ACT ///
THE DIALOGUE PROCESS BETWEEN THE LEADERS OF PAKISTAN AND INDIA IS
JUST OVER ONE YEAR OLD. MR. SHARIF HAD THREE MEETINGS WITH THE
PREVIOUS INDIAN PRIME MINISTER, I-K GUJRAL. ANALYSTS SAY THE
SESSIONS PRODUCED GOOD FEELINGS, BUT NO CONCRETE RESULTS.
(SIGNED)
NEB/DAB/CB/WTW
27-Jul-98 11:17 PM EDT (0317 UTC)
NNNN
Source: Voice of America
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