DATE=7/21/98
TYPE=BACKGROUND REPORT
NUMBER=5-40966
TITLE=INDIA / NUCLEAR
BYLINE=DOUGLAS BAKSHIAN
DATELINE=NEW DELHI
CONTENT=
VOICED AT:
INTRO: POLITICAL ANALYSTS SAY MUCH WORK REMAINS AHEAD FOR INDIA
AND THE UNITED STATES ON NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT. THEY SAY TALKS ON
THE ISSUE BETWEEN U-S ENVOY STROBE TALBOTT AND INDIAN FOREIGN
POLICY ADVISER JASWANT SINGH ARE PART OF A LONG AND DIFFICULT
PROCESS. V-O-A NEW DELHI CORRESPONDENT DOUGLAS BAKSHIAN REPORTS.
TEXT: BOTH INDIA AND THE UNITED STATES DESCRIBED THE TALKS AS
CONSTRUCTIVE. AN INDIAN FOREIGN MINISTRY SPOKESMAN ADDED THERE
WAS MOVEMENT ON BOTH SIDES, AND THE GAP BETWEEN THEIR PERCEPTIONS
WAS NARROWED. BUT BENEATH THE DIPLOMATIC GENERALITIES, BRAHMA
CHELLANEY, OF DELHI'S CENTER FOR POLICY RESEARCH, SAYS A
DIFFICULT SITUATION REMAINS.
/// FIRST CHELLANEY ACT ///
THE VERY FACT THAT THEY HAVE NOT SAID MUCH BEYOND THE
USUAL DIPLOMATIC WORDS GOES TO SHOW THAT NEGOTIATIONS
HAVE BEEN DIFFICULT, THAT THEY HAVE BEEN QUITE INTENSE.
AND THE VERY FACT THAT ANOTHER ROUND HAS BEEN SCHEDULED
FOR LATE AUGUST GOES TO SHOW THAT A LOT OF HARD
BARGAINING HAS YET TO TAKE PLACE.
/// END ACT ///
MR. TALBOTT AND MR. SINGH HAVE HELD THREE ROUNDS OF TALKS OVER
THE PAST TWO MONTHS. INDIAN AND U-S OFFICIALS BOTH CAUTION THIS
IS PART OF A DIALOGUE THAT MAY TAKE QUITE SOME TIME.
WASHINGTON WANTS NEW DELHI TO SIGN THE COMPREHENSIVE TEST BAN
TREATY UNCONDITIONALLY. INDIAN HAS LONG OPPOSED THE TREATY,
SAYING IT ALLOWS THE RECOGNIZED NUCLEAR POWERS TO FINE-TUNE THEIR
ARSENALS WHILE HOLDING OTHER POWERS IN CHECK. HOWEVER, NEW DELHI
INDICATES IT COULD BE WILLING TO JOIN THE TREATY IF INDIA IS
GIVEN THE STATUS OF A NUCLEAR-WEAPONS STATE. WITH THIS
HISTORICAL BACKGROUND, MR. CHELLANEY SAYS ANY FUTURE AGREEMENT
WILL BE DIFFICULT.
/// SECOND CHELLANEY ACT ///
THE DEAL THAT HAS TO BE CLINCHED WILL BE A DIFFICULT
DEAL, BECAUSE INDIA AND THE UNITED STATES HAVE BEEN ON
THE OPPOSITE SIDES OF THE DEBATE FOR DECADES AND NOW THE
AMERICANS ARE ASKING THE INDIANS TO JOIN THE
NON-PROLIFERATION REGIME -- THE VERY REGIME THE INDIANS
HAVE FOUGHT TOOTH AND NAIL. SO ANY DEAL WILL BE
DIFFICULT, IT WILL BE A COMPLEX DEAL, AND IT WILL HAVE
TO INVOLVE MUTUAL GIVE AND TAKE. AND I THINK THE
INDIANS ARE GOING TO DRIVE A VERY HARD BARGAIN BEFORE
THEY EXTEND ANY COOPERATION TO THE NON-PROLIFERATION
REGIME.
/// END ACT ///
THERE ARE SIDE ISSUES AS WELL. FOR YEARS INDIA HAS BEEN DENIED
ACCESS TO TRANSFERS OF DUAL-USE TECHNOLOGY, OR EQUIPMENT THAT HAS
BOTH CIVILIAN AND MILITARY APPLICATIONS. WESTERN POWERS FEAR
SUCH TECHNOLOGY COULD BE USED IN MISSILE OR WEAPONS PROGRAMS.
INDIAN OFFICIALS SAY ANY AGREEMENT ON THE TEST BAN TREATY MUST
ADDRESS INDIA'S STRATEGIC CONCERNS, INCLUDING ACCESS TO HIGH
TECHNOLOGY.
POLITICAL AUTHOR BABANI SENGUPTA SAYS IT WILL NOT BE EASY TO
FINDSOLUTIONS TO SUCH DIFFERENCES.
/// SENGUPTA ACT ///
WHAT HAPPENS TO THE FISSILE MATERIAL (MATERIAL USED TO
MAKE BOMBS) IN STOCK, AND WHAT HAPPENS TO THE TRANSFER
OF TECHNOLOGY? THESE ARE VERY RELATED ISSUES TO THE
C-T-B-T [COMPREHENSIVE TEST-BAN TREATY]. NEITHER SIDE
HAS VERY CLEARLY STATED ITS NEGOTIATING POSITION, WHICH
STILL REMAINS, I THINK, FLEXIBLE AND FLUID. BUT IT WILL
NOT BE EASY TO COME TO A SOLUTION OF THESE PROBLEMS.
/// END ACT ///
INDIA AND PAKISTAN CONDUCTED NUCLEAR TESTS IN MAY, PROMPTING
ECONOMIC SANCTIONS AND INTERNATIONAL CONDEMNATION. POLITICAL
ANALYSTS SAY TENSIONS HAVE INCREASED IN SOUTH ASIA FOLLOWING THE
TESTS, AND BOTH NATIONS ARE REDEFINING THEIR INTERNATIONAL
RELATIONS NOW THAT THEY HAVE JOINED THE NUCLEAR CLUB. (SIGNED)
NEB/DAB/WTW
21-Jul-98 6:47 AM EDT (1047 UTC)
NNNN
Source: Voice of America
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