DATE=6/18/98
TYPE=BACKGROUND REPORT
NUMBER=5-40713
TITLE=INDIA / NUKES
BYLINE=ANDRE DE NESNERA
DATELINE=LONDON
CONTENT=
VOICED AT:
INTRO: THE RESPECTED BRITISH DEFENSE PUBLICATION "JANE'S
INTELLIGENCE REVIEW" SAYS INDIA HAS THE CAPABILITY OF PRODUCING A
NUCLEAR ARSENAL TO RIVAL THAT OF FRANCE AND CHINA. V-O-A'S ANDRE
DE NESNERA REPORTS FROM LONDON.
TEXT: "JANE'S INTELLIGENCE REVIEW" SAYS THE RECENT NUCLEAR TESTS
CONDUCTED BY INDIA LAST MONTH HAVE PROVIDED CRUCIAL INFORMATION
AS TO THE SHAPE AND SIZE OF THAT COUNTRY'S NUCLEAR ARSENAL.
THE BRITISH DEFENSE MAGAZINE SAYS INDIA'S NUCLEAR WEAPONS PROGRAM
COMES PRIMARILY FROM WEAPONS-GRADE PLUTONIUM REPROCESSED FROM TWO
RESEARCH REACTORS. BASED ONLY ON THESE TWO REACTORS, THE
MAGAZINE SAYS INDIA'S NUCLEAR ARSENAL IS ESTIMATED AT BETWEEN 20
AND 65 WEAPONS.
HOWEVER, "JANE'S INTELLIGENCE REVIEW" ALSO SAYS INDIA HAS OTHER
COMMERCIAL NUCLEAR REACTORS WHICH PRODUCE ELECTRICITY BUT CAN
ALSO MAKE PLUTONIUM. ALTHOUGH THIS PLUTONIUM IS NOT IDEAL FOR
MAKING WEAPONS, THE DEFENSE MAGAZINE SAYS BRITAIN HAS
SUCCESSFULLY PRODUCED NUCLEAR WEAPONS FROM SUCH PLUTONIUM -- AND
THERE ARE INDICATIONS INDIA ATTEMPTED A SIMILAR FEAT IN THE TESTS
CONDUCTED LAST MONTH.
THE DEFENSE MAGAZINE GOES ON TO SAY, ACCORDING TO ONE ESTIMATE,
IF THE COMMERCIAL REACTOR PLUTONIUM IS TAKEN INTO ACCOUNT, THEN
INDIA WOULD POSSESS ENOUGH FISSILE MATERIAL TO BUILD AT LEAST 390
NUCLEAR WEAPONS AND AS MANY AS 470 WEAPONS. THIS MAKES THE
POTENTIAL INDIAN NUCLEAR ARSENAL BIGGER THAN THAT OF BRITAIN AND
IN THE SAME LEAGUE AS FRANCE AND CHINA.
THE EDITOR OF "JANE'S INTELLIGENCE REVIEW" -- PETER FELSTEAD --
SAYS INDIA IS ALSO DEVELOPING LAND, SEA AND AIR SYSTEMS TO
DELIVER SUCH WEAPONS.
/// FELSTEAD ACT ///
INDIA'S MAJOR PROGRAM IS THE 'AGNI' MISSILE. THIS IS AN
ONGOING PROGRAM THAT USED TO BE JUST A TECHNOLOGY
DEMONSTRATOR. BUT THIS IS ACTUALLY CONTINUING NOW AS A
FULL PROGRAM IN THE LIGHT OF RECENT EVENTS. NOW THAT
(MISSILE SYSTEM) WILL EVENTUALLY COME OUT TO A RANGE OF
2500 KILOMETERS -- IF IT ACHIEVES ITS FULL POTENTIAL.
/// END ACT ///
MR. FELSTEAD SAYS IF THE 'AGNI' MISSILE IS PLACED ON INDIA'S
BORDER FACING CHINA, THEN IT COULD HIT SIGNIFICANT SOUTHWEST
REGIONS OF THAT COUNTRY. HE SAYS INDIA'S POTENTIAL NUCLEAR
STRENGTH COULD AFFECT CHINESE DEFENSE POLICIES.
// 2ND FELSTEAD ACT //
CHINA HAS BEEN LOOKING TO EXPAND THEIR NAVAL
CAPABILITIES -- WHAT WE CALL THEIR 'BLUE WATER'
CAPABILITIES -- WHICH WOULD GIVE THEM THE CAPABILITY TO
ACTUALLY OPERATE IN THE INDIAN OCEAN. THEY HAVE BEEN
WORKING, FOR EXAMPLE, WITH BURMA -- NOW MYANMAR -- TO
ACTUALLY TRY TO SET UP SIGNALS INTELLIGENCE BASES ON THE
BURMESE COAST. IT MAY BE THAT ALTHOUGH INDIA HAS NOTHING
LIKE THE MILITARY POWER TO ACTUALLY CHECK A COUNTRY THE
SIZE OF CHINA, IT MAY MAKE THEM (CHINA) THINK TWICE
ABOUT THEIR EXPANSIONIST POLICIES IN THAT REGION.
/// END ACT ///
AS FOR PAKISTAN, "JANE'S INTELLIGENCE REVIEW" ESTIMATES IT HAS
BETWEEN SIX AND 12 NUCLEAR WEAPONS. AND IT GOES ON TO SAY DATA
SEEM TO SUGGEST PAKISTAN CONDUCTED BETWEEN THREE AND FOUR NUCLEAR
TESTS IN RESPONSE TO THE INDIAN BLASTS -- AND NOT SIX AS
ANNOUNCED BY THE PAKISTAN GOVERNMENT.
"JANE'S INTELLIGENCE REVIEW" SAYS PAKISTAN'S NUCLEAR ARSENAL IS
DESIGNED TO COUNTER THE PERCEIVED CONVENTIONAL AND NUCLEAR
SUPERIORITY OF INDIA. BUT THE MAGAZINE GOES ON TO SAY THE ARSENAL
WAS INTENDED TO BE USED ONLY AS A WEAPON OF LAST RESORT WHEN THE
VERY EXISTENCE OF PAKISTAN WAS AT STAKE.
MR. FELSTEAD BELIEVES THE REGION HAS STABILIZED -- BUT THERE ARE
DEFINITE CONCERNS.
/// THIRD FELSTEAD ACT ///
A MORE OBVIOUS CONCERN WOULD BE THE PROLIFERATION
ARISING OUT OF THESE TESTS -- PAKISTAN BECOMING
COMPELLED TO SELL ITS NUCLEAR TECHNOLOGY TO OTHER STATES
THAT ARE ATTEMPTING TO DEVELOP NUCLEAR WEAPONS SUCH AS
IRAN AND LIBYA, POSSIBLY EVEN SYRIA -- SELLING THEIR
TECHNOLOGY TO ACTUALLY FUND THEIR OWN PROGRAMS. IT IS
DIFFICULT TO SEE WHAT THE TRICKLE EFFECTS ARE GOING TO
BE AROUND THE WORLD WITH THESE OTHER STATES. NOW I
THINK THAT IS WHERE THE CONCERN IS.
/// END ACT ///
MANY POLITICIANS AND DEFENSE EXPERTS HAVE URGED PAKISTAN AND
INDIA TO RESUME NEGOTIATIONS AIMED AT REDUCING TENSIONS IN THE
REGION -- AND TO MAKE SURE THAT NUCLEAR TECHNOLOGY DOES NOT GET
INTO THE WRONG HANDS. (SIGNED)
NEB/ADEN/JWH/GE
18-Jun-98 9:24 AM EDT (1324 UTC)
NNNN
Source: Voice of America
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