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DATE=6/18/98
TYPE=CORRESPONDENT / ACTUALITY  READER
NUMBER=2-234166 (CQ)
TITLE=INDIA PAKISTAN NUKES (S)
BYLINE=JIM RANDLE
DATELINE=PENTAGON
CONTENT=
UNVOICED: 
ANCHOR:  FOUR ANALYSTS WHO STUDY NUCLEAR ISSUES SAY THE REPORT BY
JANES' INTELLIGENCE REVIEW THAT INDIA COULD PRODUCE HUNDREDS OF 
NUCLEAR WEAPONS, SEEMS THEORETICALLY POSSIBLE, BUT UNLIKELY.  
ONE OF THEM IS DAVID ALBIGHT, HEAD OF THE PRIVATE 'INSTITUTE FOR 
SCIENCE AND INTERNATIONAL SECURITY.'  HE SAYS INDIA HAS A LOT OF 
LOW GRADE PLUTONIUM FROM ITS COMMERCIAL REACTORS.  MR. ALBRIGHT 
SAYS THE JANES' ESTIMATE ASSUMES THAT INDIAN SCIENTISTS WOULD 
CONVERT ALL OF THE 'REACTOR GRADE' PLUTONIUM INTO BOMBS.  HE SAYS
THEY DON'T NEED TO GO TO SUCH TROUBLE.    
                      /// DAVID ALBRIGHT///
         IT'S  NOT  LIKELY, AND PARTLY BECAUSE THEY HAVE, IN OUR 
         ESTIMATE, THEY HAVE SO MUCH MORE WEAPONS GRADE PLUTONIUM
         THAN THEY HAVE ACTUALLY PUT IN THE NUCLEAR WEAPONS SO 
         FAR.  AND THESE REACTORS, ONE CONTINUES TO OPERATE, AND 
         IT'S PRODUCING ABOUT FOUR BOMBS WORTH OF PLUTONIUM EVERY
         YEAR.   AND THEY DON'T HAVE A BIG WEAPONS PRODUCTION 
         COMPLEX, SO ADDING FOUR OR FIVE OR TEN WEAPONS TO THEIR 
         ARSENAL EACH YEAR IS ACTUALLY A FAIRLY MAJOR STEP FOR 
         THEM.  
                         /// END ACT ///
MR. ALBRIGHT SAYS INDIA PROBABLY HAS ENOUGH PLUTONIUM TO PRODUCE 
75 NUCLEAR WEAPONS, BUT LIKELY ACTUALLY HAVE BUILT ONLY ONE THIRD
THAT NUMBER.   HE SAYS INDIA HAS A NUCLEAR PROGRAM IN LARGE PART 
TO MAKE CHINA AND PAKISTAN AFRAID TO ATTACK.  MR ALBRIGHT SAYS A 
COUPLE OF DOZEN NUCLEAR WEAPONS SHOULD DO THAT PRETTY WELL. 
(SIGNED)
NEB/JR/WDC/GE
18-Jun-98 4:39 PM EDT (2039 UTC)
NNNN
Source: Voice of America
.