DATE=6/11/98
TYPE=BACKGROUND REPORT
NUMBER=5-40656
TITLE=INDIA PAK NUKE
BYLINE=RAVI KHANNA
DATELINE=WASHINGTON
CONTENT=
VOICED AT:
INTRO: DEFENSE AND POLITICAL ANALYSTS ARE URGING INDIA AND
PAKISTAN TO START TALKS IN ORDER TO CONTROL THE NUCLEAR RISKS
CREATED BY THEIR RECENT NUCLEAR TESTS. V-O-A'S RAVI KHANNA SPOKE
WITH SEVERAL ANALYSTS DURING HIS TRIP TO INDIA AND PAKISTAN AND
HAS FILED THIS REPORT.
TEXT: PROMINENT PAKISTANI NEWSPAPER COLUMNIST AND PAKISTAN'S
FORMER AMBASSADOR TO WASHINGTON -- MALEEHA LODHI -- SAYS THE TWO
NEIGHBORS REQUIRE NEW WAYS TO THINK ABOUT HOW TO ACHIEVE NUCLEAR
STABILIZATION AND MANAGE THE DANGERS OF NUCLEAR WAR.
IN HER COLUMN IN THE NEWSPAPER, "THE NEWS," SHE SAYS THAT UNTIL
NOW BOTH SIDES BACKED AWAY FROM MILITARY CONFLICT BECAUSE OF
WORRIES THAT HOSTILITIES COULD ESCALATE TO A NUCLEAR EXCHANGE.
BUT NOW, SHE ADDS, THOSE RESTRAINTS HAVE BEEN SHATTERED.
MS. LODHI SAYS IT WOULD BE WISER IF DETERRENCE CAN BE STABILIZED
AT THE EXISTING LEVEL OF CAPABILITY. SHE WARNS THAT PLACING
WARHEADS ON MISSILES AND THEN DEPLOYING THEM IS FRAUGHT WITH
DANGER FOR THE TWO NEIGHBORS.
ANOTHER PAKISTANI COLUMNIST -- TALAT HUSSAIN -- HAS ALSO CALLED
ON BOTH COUNTRIES TO CONTAIN AT THE CURRENT LEVEL WHAT HE CALLS
THE DEVIL OF THEIR NUCLEAR ACHIEVEMENTS. HE SUGGESTS THAT INDIA
AND PAKISTAN NEEDS TO M=TAKE THREE URGENT STEPS.
// HUSSAIN ACT -1 //
"THE FIRST IS TO REDUCE THE RISK OF A NUCLEAR WAR IN THE
REGION, WHICH CAN BE CATASTROPHIC. SECONDLY, THEY NEED
TO OPEN THE HOTLINES [I.E. OPEN DIRECT LINES OF
TELEPHONE CONTACT] WITH EACH OTHER AND [THEY] NEED TO
CONSTANTLY INFORM EACH OTHER OF EACH OTHER'S MOVES.
THIS KIND OF COMMUNICATION IS ABSOLUTELY NECESSARY TO
REDUCE THE RISK OF A MISCALCULATION. AND THIRDLY, AND
MOST IMPORTANTLY OF ALL, THEY NEED TO MOVE ON TO
CONFIDENCE BUILDING MEASURES SO THAT THIS ENVIRONMENT OF
HIGH TENSION CAN BE DISINFECTED [I.E. REDUCED], AND THE
TEMPERATURES CAN BE BROUGHT DOWN. AND FROM THERE THEY
CAN MAKE A REAL CONCRETE MOVE TO BUILD THAT PROCESS
WHICH WOULD MAKE REDUNDANT ANY PURSUIT OF FURTHER
NUCLEAR POWER."
// END ACT //
MR. HUSSAIN SAYS OTHER CONFIDENCE BUILDING STEPS SHOULD INVOLVE
WAYS TO VERIFY THAT NUCLEAR DELIVERY SYSTEMS -- LIKE BALLISTIC
MISSILES -- HAVE NOT BEEN DEPLOYED, AND FINDING WAYS TO
ESTABLISH ATTACK WARNING SYSTEMS.
HE SAYS THE NUCLEAR STANDOFF BETWEEN INDIA AND PAKISTAN IS UNIQUE
, AND SO THERE IS LITTLE TO DRAW ON FROM THE COLD WAR EXPERIENCES
OF THE SUPERPOWERS.
CONFLICT RESOLUTION EXPERT -- BARNETT RUBIN OF THE U-N
DEVELOPMENT PROGRAM -- WAS IN PAKISTAN THE DAY IT CONDUCTED
NUCLEAR TESTS. MR. RUBIN AGREES WITH MR. HUSSAIN, AND ADDS THAT
THE CONFLICT BETWEEN THE TWO SOUTH ASIA NEIGHBORS IS HIGHLY
EMOTIONAL.
// RUBIN ACT - 1 //
"THE DISPUTE BETWEEN INDIA AND PAKISTAN IS NOT SIMILAR
TO THE ONE BETWEEN THE UNITED STATES AND THE SOVIET
UNION. THEREFORE IT MIGHT NOT BE SO SUSCEPTIBLE TO
STABLE DETERRENCE BECAUSE IT IS NOT A PURELY STRATEGIC
CONFLICT, IT IS ALSO A VERY EMOTIONAL CONFLICT AND IT
INVOLVES NOT JUST INTERESTS OR EVEN IDEOLOGY BUT
PEOPLES' IDENTITIES. THEREFORE THE GOVERNMENTS MIGHT BE
SUBJECT TO WHAT WOULD APPEAR TO OUTSIDERS TO BE MORE
IRRATIONAL DECISION-MAKING PROCESSES. I THINK THOUGH
THAT BOTH SIDES DO HAVE RELATIVELY WELL ORGANIZED
MILITARIES AND PROBABLY THESE WEAPONS AT PRESENT ARE
UNDER RATHER SOUND COMMAND AND CONTROL. SO IT IS
UNLIKELY THAT THEY WOULD BE USED IN A MOMENT OF EMOTION.
BUT GIVEN THE NATURE OF THE CONFLICT BETWEEN THESE TWO
SOCIETIES, I THINK IT IS SOMETHING, UNFORTUNATELY, WE
CAN'T RULE OUT."
// END ACT //
THE ANALYSTS SAY THE INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY SHOULD WORK WITH THE
GOVERNMENTS OF INDIA AND PAKISTAN TO DEFUSE TENSIONS. SUCH AN
EFFORT, SAY THE ANALYSTS, WILL CONTRIBUTE TO STABILIZING INDIAN
AND PAKISTANI DETERRENCE AT THE CURRENT LEVEL IN WHICH NUCLEAR
WEAPONS ARE NOT DEPLOYED. (SIGNED)
NEB/RK/GE
11-Jun-98 1:28 PM EDT (1728 UTC)
NNNN
Source: Voice of America
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