DATE=6/3/98
TYPE=BACKGROUND REPORT
NUMBER=5-40587
TITLE=NUCLEAR THREAT IN SOUTH ASIA
BYLINE= ED WARNER
DATELINE= WASHINGTON
CONTENT=
VOICED AT:
INTRO: THE NUCLEAR TESTS IN INDIA AND PAKISTAN HAVE RATTLED THE
WORLD AND ONCE AGAIN RAISED THE SPECTER OF NUCLEAR WARFARE. THE
DANGER WAS ASSESSED AND REMEDIES PROPOSED AT A WASHINGTON
CONFERENCE (WED., JUNE 3). VOA'S ED WARNER REPORTS THE DISCUSSION
AND SOME OTHER VIEWS ON POSSIBLE NUCLEAR PROLIFERATION.
TEXT: THE U-S CONGRESS IS IN AN ANXIOUS MOOD FOLLOWING THE
NUCLEAR TESTS IN INDIA AND PAKISTAN, AND SOME MEMBERS HAVE WARNED
OF WARFARE BETWEEN THE TWO NATIONS.
SPEAKING AT A CONFERENCE HELD AT THE CENTER FOR STRATEGIC AND
INTERNATIONAL STUDIES, SENATOR CHARLES ROBB SAID THE DANGER MAY
NOT BE AS GREAT AS SOME FEAR, BUT U-S AND INTERNATIONAL EFFORTS
NEED TO CONCENTRATE ON KASHMIR, THE SOURCE OF THE WORST TENSIONS
BETWEEN INDIA AND PAKISTAN:
// ROBB ACT //
AT THIS POINT, IT IS CRITICALLY IMPORTANT THAT THE FLASH
POINT BETWEEN THE TWO COUNTRIES IN THREE WARS COULD
EASILY LEAD TO A FOURTH WAR. IT MIGHT NOT BE ARMEGEDDON
(TOTAL DISASTER), BUT THE PROSPECT FOR A VERY QUICK
MISUNDERSTANDING, GIVEN THE CONTINUED MILITARY ACTIVITY
IN KASHMIR, IS THE PLACE WHERE I THINK ALMOST EVERYONE
FEELS WE ARE GOING TO HAVE TO FOCUS OUR EFFORTS TO
AVOID THE SITUATION GETTING OUT OF HAND.
// END ACT //
SENATOR ROBB SAID VARIOUS DEVICES WERE CONSTRUCTED TO PREVENT ANY
NUCLEAR EXCHANGE BETWEEN THE SOVIET UNION AND THE UNITED STATES
DURING THE COLD WAR. BUT THESE ARE LARGELY LACKING IN THE CASE OF
INDIA AND PAKISTAN, WHOSE ADJOINING BORDERS GIVE LITTLE TIME FOR
SECOND THOUGHTS IF THERE IS FEAR OF A NUCLEAR ATTACK.
MICHAEL KEPRON OF THE HENRY L. STIMSON CENTER SAID THE TWO SOUTH
ASIAN COUNTRIES MUST START CREATING THE NECESSARY RESTRAINTS:
// KEPRON ACT //
THE CONFIDENCE BUILDING MEASURES THAT WERE NEGOTIATED BY
INDIA AND PAKISTAN IN PART WITH THE ENCOURAGEMENT OF THE
UNITED STATES AND OTHER COUNTRIES, HAVE NOT BEEN
PROPERLY IMPLEMENTED. THE FIRST STEP THAT NEEDS TO BE
TAKEN IS TO PROPERLY IMPLEMENT AGREEMENTS THAT ARE
ALREADY IN FORCE. THERE IS A COMPELLING NEED NOW FOR A
NEW SET OF NEGOTIATIONS THAT PRODUCE NEW NUCLEAR RISK
REDUCTION ACCORDS, AND OTHER STEPS ARE REQUIRED AS WELL.
// END ACT //
NO SOLUTION IS LIKELY WITHOUT CHINA'S INVOLVEMENT, SAID ROBERT
MANNING OF THE COUNCIL ON FOREIGN RELATIONS. FEAR OF CHINA'S
NUCLEAR ARSENAL WAS PARTLY RESPONSIBLE FOR INDIA'S TESTS, AND
BEIJING MADE A SUBSTANTIAL CONTRIBUTION TO PAKISTAN'S BOMB.
MR. MANNING SAID CHINA CAN NOW HELP RESTORE CALM BY EXPOSING ITS
OWN NUCLEAR ARSENAL:
// MANNING ACT //
TRANSPARENCY WOULD HELP. THE INDIANS KEEP COMPLAINING
THAT CHINESE WEAPONS ARE DEPLOYED IN TIBET. HOW ABOUT AN
INSPECTION TO PROVE THAT IS FALSE, FOR EXAMPLE? THE
PROBLEM WITH THE WHOLE CHINESE NUCLEAR PROGRAM IS THAT
IT IS THOROUGHLY UNTRANSPARENT. THE CHINESE HAVE NEVER
DECLARED ITS ARSENAL BECAUSE IT IS SO MUCH SMALLER THAN
THE OTHER MAJOR NUCLEAR POWERS.
// END ACT //
THERE IS CONCERN THE TESTS IN SOUTH ASIA MAY ENCOURAGE OTHER
COUNTRIES TO GO NUCLEAR. ASSAD HOMAYOUN, AN IRANIAN OPPOSITION
LEADER IN WASHINGTON, SAYS NATIONS LIKE IRAN MAY REASON THAT IF
COUNTRIES AS POOR AS INDIA AND PAKISTAN CAN HAVE NUCLEAR BOMBS,
WHY CAN'T THEY? ARAB NATIONS COMPLAIN THAT WHILE THEY FOREGO SUCH
WEAPONS, ISRAEL HAS A SUBSTANTIAL NUMBER WITHOUT ANY
INTERNATIONAL OUTCRY.
MR. HOMAYOUN LIKENS TODAY'S INTERNATIONAL SCENE TO A ROULETTE
TABLE:
// HOMAYOUN ACT //
BEFORE 1990, IT RESEMBLED A CHESS GAME WITH ONLY TWO
IMPORTANT PLAYERS. NOW THERE ARE MANY PLAYERS AROUND
THIS ROULETTE TABLE - SMALL, MEDIUM-SIZED AND BIG, POOR
AND RICH - ALL PREPARED TO PLAY AND RISK. FOR THE U-S
GOVERNMENT, IT IS VERY DIFFICULT TO PREVENT
PROLIFERATION NOW AND SAVE NPT (NUCLEAR
NON-PROLIFERATION TREATY) AND CTBT (COMPREHENSIVE TEST
BAN TREATY) UNLESS PAKISTAN AND INDIA SIGN BOTH AND DO
NOT DEPLOY THESE (NUCLEAR) ARMS TO THE BATTLEFIELD.
// END ACT //
SOME ANALYSTS SAY THAT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. ONCE THEY HAVE
DEMONSTRATED THEIR NUCLEAR MIGHT, INDIA AND PAKISTAN MAY SEARCH
FOR WAYS TO KEEP THIS POSSIBLY LETHAL COMPETITION FROM GOING TOO
FAR. (SIGNED)
NEB/PT
03-Jun-98 7:58 PM EDT (2358 UTC)
NNNN
Source: Voice of America
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