DATE=5/15/98
TYPE=CORRESPONDENT REPORT
NUMBER=2-232271
TITLE=INDIA / SANCTIONS (L)
BYLINE=DOUGLAS BAKSHIAN
DATELINE=NEW DELHI
CONTENT=
VOICED AT:
INTRO: INDIA IS BEING SUBJECTED TO INTERNATIONAL SANCTIONS
BECAUSE OF ITS DECISION THIS WEEK TO CARRY OUT NUCLEAR TESTS.
V-O-A NEW DELHI CORRESPONDENT DOUGLAS BAKSHIAN REPORTS THERE ARE
DIFFERING ESTIMATES ON WHAT KIND OF IMPACT THE SANCTIONS WILL
HAVE.
TEXT: A CLEAR PICTURE OF THE IMPACT OF ECONOMIC SANCTIONS HAS
NOT YET EMERGED. ACCORDING TO ONE WIDELY QUOTED ESTIMATE, U-S
SANCTIONS COULD COST INDIA ABOUT 20 BILLION DOLLARS.
HALF THE AMOUNT IS IN INSURANCE AND FINANCING FOR AMERICAN FIRMS
FROM THE U-S OVERSEAS PRIVATE INVESTMENT CORPORATION. ANOTHER
FOUR BILLION DOLLARS IS IN PENDING PROJECTS BY THE U-S
EXPORT-IMPORT BANK, AND THE STATE DEPARTMENT SAYS SEVERAL BILLION
DOLLARS IN FUTURE LOANS BY INTERNATIONAL INSTITUTIONS COULD BE
AFFECTED.
BUT INDIA'S RESPECTED BUSINESS STANDARD NEWSPAPER GIVES ANOTHER
VIEW. THE PUBLICATION QUOTES UN-NAMED SENIOR INDIAN GOVERNMENT
OFFICIALS AS SAYING THE ACTUAL IMPACT OF SANCTIONS WILL BE ABOUT
ONLY ONE BILLION DOLLARS. FINANCE MINISTRY OFFICIALS WOULD NOT
CONFIRM OR DENY THE FIGURE FOR V-O-A. HOWEVER, INDIA'S FINANCE
MINISTER, YASHWANT SINHA, THIS WEEK PUBLICLY PLAYED DOWN THE COST
OF SANCTIONS.
ON ANOTHER FRONT, INDIA RECEIVES SEVERAL BILLION DOLLARS A YEAR
IN AID FROM INDIVIDUAL COUNTRIES AND MULTI-COUNTRY AGENCIES.
JAPAN, INDIA'S BIGGEST AID DONOR, HAS FROZEN ONE-BILLION DOLLARS
IN LOANS.
OTHER MAJOR DONORS INCLUDE THE UNITED KINGDOM, THE NETHERLANDS,
SWEDEN, GERMANY AND DENMARK. GERMANY HAS EFFECTIVELY FROZEN
160-MILLION DOLLARS IN NEW DEVELOPMENT ASSISTANCE, SWEDEN SAYS IT
WILL CANCEL A 119-MILLION DOLLAR AID DEAL, AND DENMARK FROZE AID
WORTH 28 MILLION DOLLARS.
ON THE MILITARY SIDE, EXPERTS SAY NEW DELHI SEEMS TO BE MORE
SECURE. INDIA RECEIVES THE VAST MAJORITY OF ITS WEAPONS FROM
RUSSIA AND ANALYSTS SAY THESE SUPPLIES REMAIN INTACT. THERE HAVE,
HOWEVER, BEEN ACTIONS BY SMALLER PARTIES -- AUSTRALIA HAS
SUSPENDED ALL DEFENSE CONTRACTS WITH INDIA AND CANADA HAS BANNED
ITS MILITARY EXPORTS.
WHILE AID AND LOANS MAKE UP ONLY A SMALL PERCENTAGE OF THE INDIAN
ECONOMY, ANALYSTS SAY THE IMPACT OF SUCH MONEY MAY BE GREATER
THAN THE NUMBERS REVEAL. THEY SAY THAT IN A VERY POOR COUNTRY
LIKE INDIA, THE LOSS OF EVEN A FEW MILLION DOLLARS CAN AFFECT
MANY PEOPLE. INDIAN LEADERS SAY THEIR ECONOMY IS SELF-RELIANT AND
CAN SURVIVE WITHOUT FOREIGN AID. (SIGNED)
NEB/DB/JO
15-May-98 8:00 AM EDT (1200 UTC)
NNNN
Source: Voice of America
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