Document 1488 7th November 1995
Resumption of French nuclear tests in the Pacific
REPORT (1)
submitted on behalf of the Defence Committee (2)
by Sir Russell Johnston, Rapporteur
TABLE OF CONTENTS
DRAFT RESOLUTION
on the resumption of French nuclear tests in the Pacific
EXPLANATORY MEMORANDUM
submitted by Sir Russell Johnston, Rapporteur
I. Introduction
II. Background
(a) From the start of nuclear research to the first tests
(b) French nuclear tests in the Sahara
(i) Reganne
(ii) In Ecker
(c) French nuclear tests in the Pacific
(i) Characteristics of the test sites on the
Mururoa and Fangataufa atolls
(ii) Characteristics of the tests conducted
(d) Security measures and monitoring by national and
international organisations
III. Aspects of the international dispute over French nuclear
testing
(a) Tests and the environment
(b) The French moratorium
(c) The comprehensive test ban treaty
(d) The compatibility of tests and the Euratom treaty
(e) The lack of European concertation
(f) European and international reaction
IV. The resumption of French nuclear tests in 1995
(a) The qualification of the TN-75
(b) Verification of the reliability and the security of
existing weapons
(c) The simulation of nuclear tests (the PALEN programme)
V. The role of France's nuclear weapons in the defence of Europe
(a) The French proposal
(b) The German reaction
(c) The United Kingdom position
(d) The reaction of the European Union
VI. The development of a European defence identity and concerted
deterrence
APPENDIX |
Glossary
Draft Resolution
on the resumption of French nuclear tests in the Pacific
The Assembly,
(i) Noting the 13th June 1995 decision of the President of France
to resume France's nuclear tests in the South Pacific in order to
ensure the safety, security and reliability of its deterrent forces
and to complete current work on the development of a test simulation;
(ii) Aware that this decision concerns a maximum of eight tests
between September 1995 and the end of May 1996 at the latest;
(iii) Noting that on 11th May 1995 all states having signed the
non-proliferation treaty unanimously decided to extend this treaty
indefinitely and that the five nuclear powers, including France,
committed themselves to sign the comprehensive test ban treaty by 1996
and, in the meantime, to exercise some restraint with respect to
nuclear tests;
(iv) Aware that France has vowed to sign the comprehensive test
ban treaty at the end of 1996, stating its commitment to a "zero
option" in the treaty, excluding even small-scale tests of one kiloton
or less;
(v) Recognising that only very few specialists have at their
disposal the scientific and technical means needed to assess whether
these additional nuclear underground tests are indispensable;
(vi) Considering that this autonomous decision was taken
notwithstanding the existence of a self-imposed moratorium on nuclear
testing which had been observed by France, Russia, the United Kingdom
and the United States since 1992;
(vii) Recognising that the moratorium on French nuclear tests,
announced by President Mitterrand in 1992, interrupted the existing
nuclear test programme;
(viii) Accepting that France wishes to ensure that its deterrent
force is fully effective in advance of its commitment to sign the
nuclear test ban treaty, but nevertheless considering that its
decision could create political conditions which endanger the |
signature of such a treaty in the autumn of 1996;
(ix) Considering that unilateral decisions on issues which can be
considered vital for the defence and security of Europe could impede
the development of a common European security and defence policy;
(x) Considering that it is increasingly less likely that, within
the framework of a common European security and defence policy,
nuclear forces would be an asset for the defence and security of the
national territory of only one particular country;
(xi) Welcoming France's initiatives to start a fundamental
discussion with some of its European partners on the role of the
French nuclear forces in a common security and defence policy;
(xii) Recalling its Recommendation 564 on the role and future of
nuclear weapons adopted on 16th June 1994;
(xiii) Considering that the French decision to hold a number of
nuclear tests might encourage those states, which are not official
nuclear weapon states, but which are trying to acquire such weapons or
have the ability to assemble them quickly, to proceed with their
efforts to achieve a nuclear capability;
(xiv) Noting that it is essential to maintain a basic European
solidarity as regards security and defence matters;
(xv) Profoundly concerned that France's unilateral decision to
proceed with nuclear tests without prior consultation may have
regrettable political consequences for the cohesion of the European
policy to promote non-proliferation of nuclear weapons;
(xvi) Noting that both the British and French nuclear forces
could play a role in maintaining peace on the European continent and
participate in the security of the European Union if there is a
political will to do so;
(xvii) Welcoming the work of the permanent Anglo-French Joint
Commission on Nuclear Policy and Doctrine which has confirmed many
points of convergence in the assessments made by the two countries,
and noting that both countries wish to continue this work which should |
lead to a new rapprochement;
(xviii) Noting that France has proposed to start a dialogue with
Germany on the possibilities of concerted deterrence in order to
protect their future common existence and to create a common strategic
area;
(xix) Stressing the need for a European doctrine of nuclear
deterrence as long as nuclear weapons have not been abolished
worldwide, while at the same time stressing that this doctrine needs
to be reconsidered and reformulated now that the "rules of the game"
mutually accepted during the cold war period no longer apply;
(xx) Noting that the proposed dialogue on the role of French
nuclear weapons in a European security and defence policy should
include such subjects as doctrine, strategy and common vital interests
which should be protected,
ASKS THE FRENCH GOVERNMENT
1. To halt or reduce the number of nuclear tests as a gesture of
good faith and as evidence of its commitment to the achievement of a
worldwide nuclear test ban in autumn 1996;
2. To intensify discussions with the British Government with a
view to enabling co-operation on their nuclear forces and consider in
what way these forces can be integrated into a common European
security and defence policy;
3. To extend the proposal to start a dialogue with Germany on the
possibilities of concerted deterrence to include the other member
states of WEU in order to protect not only their common future
existence but also to create a common strategic area.
Explanatory Memorandum
(submitted by Sir Russell Johnston, Rapporteur)
I. Introduction
1. The French Presidential candidate, Mr. Jacques Chirac, had
undertaken to resume nuclear testing, should that prove necessary, to
ensure the reliability of the French deterrent. On 13th June 1995, as
President of the French Republic, Mr. Chirac announced the resumption |
of nuclear tests by France; this was to be a final series of eight
tests between September 1995 and May 1996. The President of the
French Republic linked this resumption to the signing of the treaty on
a total ban on nuclear tests. This decision came after a moratorium
of more than three years decided by the previous French President,
Francois Mitterrand, on 8th April 1992. On 5th September, the first
test, Thetis, of 20 kt took place. This event rekindled the debate on
French nuclear tests. To understand fully what nuclear tests are and
what is at stake for France, it is necessary to recall the events
leading up to them.
II. Background
2. For a better understanding of the present French policy
regarding nuclear testing, the history of the development of France's
nuclear arsenal will be recalled succinctly in the following
paragraphs. (3)
(a) From the start of nuclear research to the first tests
3. In fact, French nuclear research began well before the second
world war. (4) Since it is essential to recall the political and
scientific circumstances allowing France to develop a nuclear weapon,
the historical part of this report will not therefore be limited to
the purely military aspect of the question, but will also examine the
aspects of civil research which led to the production of such a weapon
in France.
4. In the period between the two wars, nuclear physics were
already at a very advanced stage in France thanks to the work of
Pierre and Marie Curie, Frederic Joliot-Curie and Irene Joliot-Curie.
5. It should be recalled that in January 1939 two German
scientists showed proof of the fission of uranium under the action of
neutrons. At that moment, various countries had already started
research in this field. In France, it was the team of Frederic
Joliot, Lew Kowarski and Hans Halban of the College de France that
assumed responsibility for this. Their very advanced work brought |
proof, in the spring of 1939, of the possibility of producing
controlled atomic energy starting from uranium. Their outstanding
work continued with the enrichment of uranium into isotope 235 and the
arrangement and dimensions of moderators, but the declaration of war
in September 1939 and the German occupation of France in June 1940
brought French atomic research to a halt before the scientists could
take out patents.
6. Two members of the team, Kowarski and Halban, then took refuge
in England to be able to continue their work in what was later known
as the Cambridge Group. There they took out several patents, based in
particular on the results obtained in France. Others crossed the
Atlantic and took part, albeit indirectly, in the Manhattan programme,
the aim of which was to achieve an atomic weapon.
7. Before the end of the war, after the test in Alamogordo on
18th July 1945, General de Gaulle had already been informed by various
scientists of the progress made in American research in these matters
and of its military implications. Thus, in autumn 1945, after the
Hiroshima and Nagasaki explosions, he took the decision to create the
Atomic Energy Commissariat (AEC). On the day of its official
inauguration, 18th October 1945, Joliot was appointed high
commissioner and Dautry, another leading research worker, general
administrator. This event was one of the first to mark the resumption
of French nuclear research.
8. France thus opted to work on nuclear fission immediately after
Hiroshima but, for the time being, for civilian purposes only.
9. Initially, the Atomic Energy Commissariat sought to conclude
several agreements with the United Kingdom concerning the recuperation
of patents taken out by the French research workers during the war.
The AEC took like action for recognition of the Joliot patents in the
United States and more than fifty other nations. The commissariat
persevered in attempting to claim recognition for France's role in the
history of atomic energy. This was a means for France to affirm its |
place and role among leading nations.
10. However, the instability of the Fourth Republic in France
after the war and the lack of financial means were to hold back French
nuclear research which fell well behind that of the Americans. To
some extent, American aid also prevented France from turning towards
the military application of nuclear energy. The colonial conflicts in
which France became bogged down between 1946 and 1958 also seriously
jeopardised the future of the French atomic weapon. At that time, the
French army itself preferred the empire to the bomb, counting on the
American nuclear umbrella in the event of need.
11. The cold war was also to have particular consequences for the
development of a French nuclear weapon. The French scientific corps
was strongly influenced by the communist movement which then had the
backing of a quarter of the electorate. Frederic Joliot and other
scientists clearly gave their voices to the Soviet Union and even
campaigned against the Atlantic Alliance and American nuclear weapons.
Thus, Joliot-Curie signed the Stockholm appeal on 19th March 1950
calling for an absolute ban on nuclear weapons. In response to all
these very strong positions, the government of Georges Bidault
appointed Francis Perrin to lead the AEC in April 1950 instead of
Joliot-Curie.
12. A first five-year plan for the development of atomic energy
prepared by Felix Gaillard, a member of the Pinay government (March
1952 to January 1953) was mainly intended to find a remedy for the
French energy deficit. The plan was to produce 50 kilos of plutonium
a year which, in theory, would allow six to eight nuclear bombs to be
produced.
13. In the National Assembly, an amendment tabled by the French
communist party in July 1952 specifying that France would conduct no
military research in this matter was rejected by a large majority (5)
; the full impact of this event is revealed by the fact that it left
the way free for military applications of the atom, even if it did not |
give its defenders a free hand.
14. At European level, Germany was authorised to re-arm in the
framework of the new WEU and of NATO in exchange for renouncing
nuclear, bacteriological and chemical weapons. This re-armament was
almost certainly one of the reasons which made France decide to
procure nuclear weapons. Perhaps there was still fear of a German
military renaissance just a few years after the end of the war. This
was specifically the view of the French military authorities which,
for the first time in 1954, suggested that France should accede to
nuclear power but provided that this would take place in a European
framework. In October and in November of the same year, the then Prime
Minister, Pierre Mendes France, took several decisions showing his
interest in the military applications of nuclear energy. (6)
15. In 1955 and 1956, the revival of European ideas through the
creation of the European Atomic Energy Community (Euratom) almost
called in question the future of the French nuclear weapon. The
proposal then was that Euratom should have a monopoly of ownership of
fissile material and that its use should be strictly pacific but,
finally, in July 1956, France managed to arrange for the treaty to
leave full latitude to the states in the area of military nuclear
research. Thus, Guy Mollet, then Prime Minister, affirmed France's
freedom to choose in military nuclear matters, while promising a five-
year moratorium before holding the first French test.
16. During the same period (February 1958), the proposal was made
to form a European conventional and nuclear armaments pool by uniting
the efforts of the Federal Republic of Germany, France and Italy. (7)
It was meant as a response to the Anglo-Saxon pool, which united
British and American military efforts, particularly in the nuclear
field. This agreement was even initialled by the ministers of defence
of the three states in question, but General de Gaulle put a final
stop to it at the Defence Council meeting on 17th June 1958. This |
episode perhaps also heralded the problems now facing Europeans today.
17. Finally, one of the main factors that influenced the French
choice in this matter was certainly the crisis in the Atlantic
Alliance that started in 1953 and was completed with France leaving
NATO.
18. This Franco-American difference within the organisation
stemmed from two sources: first, a feeling of dependence on Americans
in defence matters and, more particularly, in the area of atomic
weapons (8) ; second, the American strategic choice of massive
retaliation which certain French authorities saw as a change in the
balance within NATO. General Valluy, then French representative in
the NATO Standing Group, wrote at the time: "Western defence centred
around the nuclear weapon is becoming wholly dependent on American
wishes... The only possible correction is the formation by the
European nations of a nuclear arsenal to allow them to intervene in
the new warfare with their own means; it would give them the
possibility of resuming a leading role in directing the coalition".
(9)
19. The Franco-British Suez operation revealed once and for all
the dissent, within the alliance, between the American protector and
the other member countries. The absence of American solidarity in
this crisis revealed clearly that there could be very divergent
interests. In France, the feeling of dependence on Americans was
expressed no longer just in regard to defence, but also in regard to
foreign policy. The French felt the American attitude to be a kind of
vassalage to the extent that parliament affirmed the need to possess
the nuclear bomb. (10) Furthermore, the Soviet threat to launch
missiles on London and Paris in response to the intervention which the
USSR opposed gave added importance to the debate.
20. After the Suez crisis, several decisions were taken on
nuclear matters and some concerned the military aspect (nuclear
warheads). On 5th December 1956, a Committee for the Military
Applications of Atomic Energy was created secretly; this committee |
provided for co-operation between the Atomic Energy Commissariat and
senior military officials. On 5th October 1956, there was an order
for the establishment of a programme concerning vehicles of delivery.
Finally, a programme was outlined on 19th December 1956 for a future
strategic nuclear bomb.
21. Events speeded up in 1957 and Franco-American relations
deteriorated within the alliance. In nuclear matters, the French did
not receive from the Americans the same assistance as the English
which allowed them to explode their H bomb. The Prime Minister, Felix
Gaillard, was already asserting France's independence of the Americans
in negotiations concerning the stockpiling of nuclear weapons and the
installation of launching ramps for Thor and Jupiter rockets.
Following the same course, on 11th April 1958, he chose the date for
the first French nuclear explosion. At that time, however, the door
was still not closed to negotiations with the Americans.
22. The return of General de Gaulle after the crisis of 13th May
1958 marked the end of French indecision in these matters. The
choices were clear; at the meeting of the Defence Council on 17th
June 1958, he confirmed the date of the first French nuclear explosion
and decided to accelerate the French nuclear programme. In September
1958, he called for a sharing of nuclear know-how and joint leadership
with the alliance. For him, the nuclear weapon was the spearhead of
national political independence. He considered it as the only weapon
capable of compensating for the inferiority of armies; it would be an
equalising factor in relations between powers. It was also a
guarantee since it allowed France to have a detonator in the event of
the Americans hesitating to resort to their nuclear weapons. But this
weapon was also first considered as a shield. Its use in battle was
envisaged as defensive to re-establish balance.
23. As a result of these facts, certain observers have been able
to note that France's nuclear decisions were reached more because of |
allies than because of its enemies. (11)
24. The production of a nuclear weapon, however, means carrying
out nuclear tests to measure its power and reliability. The various
aspects of French nuclear tests will now be examined in the following
part of the present report.
(b) French nuclear tests in the Sahara
25. French nuclear tests in the Sahara were held in two different
sites named Reganne and In Ecker.
(i) Reganne
26. The date of France's first nuclear explosion retained by
General de Gaulle at the meeting of the Defence Council on 17th June
1958 was the beginning of 1960. The place chosen for this experiment
was the Sahara and, more precisely, the Reganne oasis 700 km south of
Colomb Bechar, then an integral part of French Algeria. (12) This
test, which was eventually to take place on 13th February 1960 at 7.04
a.m., was then placed under the responsibility of the Commandement
Interarmees des Armes Speciales (CIAS), commanded by General Ailleret.
On 16th March the French Government announced: "The power of the
nuclear device tested at Reggane on 13th February was between 60 and
70 kt and the result of the explosion was particularly satisfactory."
27. The success of the atmospheric test "Gerboise Bleue" informed
the world that France was joining the very restricted nuclear power
club (the United States, USSR, Great Britain).
28. The test presented an opportunity for various measurements to
draw the maximum scientific data including nuclear analysis, ultra-
rapid photographs and samples for radio-chemical analysis of the
residue of the explosion. The military authorities made a large
number of observations on the effects of the explosion. In co-
operation with the national meteorological service and the AEC, they
had already verified the radiological security of the operation.
29. Shortly after this first test, the AEC proposed testing the
emergency device, available on the firing range, should an incident |
have prevented the successful conduct of the test. The French state
welcomed this proposal. Thus on 1st April 1960, before the high
temperatures of the Sahara in summer, the second air test, named
"Gerboise blanche", was carried out.
30. Two other tests were carried out on the Reggane range,
"Gerboise rouge" on 27th December 1960 and "Gerboise verte" on 25th
April 1961.
31. These first four French tests, however, were held in an
atmosphere of international tension. This was a period in which the
other nuclear powers (United States, USSR and Great Britain) had
decided on a moratorium (since November 1958). Public opinion in
several countries was also very vociferous against the tests and their
radioactive fallout. Moreover, the virulence of certain international
protests at the time was not very different from that of today.
32. As a result, France then took the decision to conduct tests
underground towards the end of 1961. To that end, it was decided to
change site.
(ii) In Ecker
33. The place chosen for these underground tests was In Ecker in
the Hoggar, some 150 km north of Tamanrasset and 2 000 km south of
Algiers. In Ecker is in the mountainous area of Tan Afela which was
chosen for the special density of its rocky substructure. It was then
called the Oasis Military Test Centre.
34. Thirteen tests were held there up to 16th February 1966, but
the 1962 Evian Agreements and the independence of Algeria called in
question the prolongation of tests in this area; France had to leave
the Sahara before 1967. Thus, after decontamination and cleaning the
sites, they were returned to the Algerian state on 1st and 15th
January 1967. France then had to find other sites suitable for such
tests.
(c) French nuclear tests in the Pacific
(i) Characteristics of the test sites on the Mururoa and Fangataufa
atolls
35. The sites retained were the French Polynesian atolls, of
Mururoa and Fangataufa (atolls of the Tuamutu) (13) in the South |
Pacific, still known as the Pacific Test Centre. From the
geographical point of view, Mururoa, the largest of the two atolls,
with a perimeter of 60 kilometres, was 40 kilometres away from
Fangataufa. These two Polynesian territories are part of France,
although they are some 20 000 kilometres away from the metropolis.
36. Here it should be recalled that these atolls, although far
distant from metropolitan territory, are associated with France.
Their history has been linked to that of France since the beginning of
the last century. Confirmation of the wish of the inhabitants of
French Polynesia to accede to the status of overseas territory was the
subject of a vote in 1958 following a 1956 national programme law
proposing that they move progressively towards independence (they then
decided to link their destiny to that of France) (14). Recent voting
corroborates this attachment to France in spite of separatist
movements which are still in the minority. Even if these tests are
not appreciated by the local population any more than that of the
metropolitan territory, this in no way calls in question the
territory's link with France. The territorial assembly composed of
locally elected representatives which handles administrative questions
was, moreover, consulted by the French authorities about the nuclear
tests. The French presence is an important economic advantage for the
population of the region. The standard of living of the inhabitants
is similar to that of Australians, for example, which is approximately
four times higher than the regional average.
37. The test sites were created on 21st September 1962 and the
Direction des Centres d'Experimentation Nucleaires (DIRCEN) was made
responsible for organising and exploiting firings. The DIRCEN was a
joint service - AEC body; the military authorities handled support
operations and the AEC prepared and carried out measures for the
functioning of the test device that the Direction des Applications
Militaires had worked out in the metropolis. All the necessary |
infrastructure for tests was installed and even a harbour channel was
created at Fangataufa which did not have one.
38. Hao, 450 kilometres north-west of Mururoa, was chosen as
advanced support base. Considerable modernisation work was carried
out there for this purpose. The rear base and command were set up in
Tahiti. Moreover, a large number of peripheral posts were installed
on surrounding atolls to verify the conditions of security
(meteorological, radiological and biological monitoring posts).
Finally, various services were created for environmental and
scientific monitoring purposes.
39. These sites were chosen by the French state for the different
types of testing because of their relative isolation and geological
characteristics.
40. These uninhabited atolls are a long way from the main
maritime or air routes and several hundred kilometres from the nearest
inhabited areas. These characteristics made the site suitable for air
tests. Nevertheless, as additional protection for air and maritime
navigation in the region, an exclusion zone (a dangerous zone with a
200 nautical miles radius) was defined and activated during firings.
41. Moreover, the basaltic sub-stratum covered by a calcaireous,
or hardened dolomite, stratum of some 300 metres produced by the
aggregation of coral residue was considered suitable for underground
tests. The high density of basalt allows nuclear tests to be confined
and thus avoids any leak of radioactivity. From a technical point of
view, in one-tenth of a second, the explosion provokes the formation
of a spherical cavity containing several thousand tons of melted rock,
with a high silicium content, trapping most of the radioactivity
resulting from the firing. Basalt is also favourable for testing
since the speed of circulation of water caused by the geothermic flow
caused by the explosion is very low in a volcanic environment. Due to
their affinity with the environment (radioactive matter is set in
lava), their low solubility and the natural decline of radioactivity, |
the matter remains trapped at a very great depth and progressively
loses its radioactivity. For that reason, the concentration of
plutonium and cesium in the Mururoa lagoon is a thousand times less
than the threshold tolerated for water normally consumed in the United
States.
(ii) Characteristics of the tests conducted
42. The first tests conducted at the Mururoa and Fangataufa sites
were atmospheric. Campaigns were grouped in order to take advantage
of favourable meteorological conditions. Strict military security
measures were taken; a strong aeronaval force (the Alpha force - an
aircraft-carrier, escort vessels, etc.) was stationed on the spot.
Meteorological forecasts were also made in view of their importance
for tests above the ground; the general direction of wind at high
altitudes is of special importance in these circumstances. Various
samples were taken systematically after each firing.
43. The first firing at Mururoa took place on a barge on 2nd July
1966. The six tests of the first campaign were as follows:
four barge tests (in which the load and measuring
instruments were on a barge some 2 000 m from the advanced recording
post);
one balloon test (a complex technique whereby the device is
carried by balloon to an altitude high enough to limit the
radiological effects on the ground while allowing the effective
conduct of testing);
one test of a device dropped from an aircraft as an
operational test for the Mirage IV bomb.
44. Much scientific data was gathered on the occasion of these
various tests, in particular thanks to the chemical diagnosis
(functioning of the chemical explosive) and the nuclear diagnosis
(reconstitution of the very high dynamic gamma flow, some 15 decades,
and of very short duration, a few hundred nanoseconds).
45. The first thermonuclear test was conducted at the Fangataufa
atoll on 24th April 1968.
46. After 41 tests in the atmosphere, underground tests were
started in June 1975. The advantage of this technique is to allow |
tests to be conducted throughout the year, campaigns no longer having
to be conducted during the southern winter, as for tests in the
atmosphere in order to have favourable meteorological conditions.
47. After each test, an oblique small diameter borehole directed
towards the firing cavity allowed a few fragments of vitrified rock to
be recuperated, analysis of which completed the measurements obtained
at the time of firing. Considerable progress was made with effect
from 1976 in regard to both the concept and taking of measurements
henceforth more accurate and complete than those made in the
atmosphere.
48. The first underground tests were initially conducted from the
coral fringe above water from derricks such as those used in the oil
industry. With effect from 1979, however, it was decided to move on
to tests in the central zone of the lagoon. Independently of the
increase in the potential number of tests that could be conducted in
this manner, it was thus also possible to avoid undue packing down of
the terrain that might cause difficulties, particularly in the event
of storms. The first test of this type took place on 10th April 1981
and with effect from 1987 all tests were carried out in the central
zone; this is still the technique employed today.
49. In all, 41 tests in the atmosphere and 134 tests in boreholes
in the atolls (from the edge of the atolls or in the central zone)
were conducted between 1960 and 1991 on Mururoa and Fangataufa. Added
to those in the Sahara, France had thus conducted a total of 192 tests
up to 1992.
(d) Security measures and international monitoring
50. In the following paragraphs, only tests conducted on Mururoa
and Fangataufa will be examined.
51. From the outset, the effects of nuclear tests have been
monitored extremely closely. Apart from the security measures
observed during each firing and already mentioned previously, various |
studies and research have been conducted at both national and
international level in order to monitor the effects on the
environment.
52. The IPSN (Institut de Protection et de Surete Nucleaire)
publishes each year a report on the analyses and measurements made
which it transmits to the Scientific Committee of the United Nations.
Validation of the laboratory procedures and recognition of the
competence of experts and engineers responsible for measuring
radioactivity necessarily depends on comparative exercises to which
are subjected the scientists of the DIRCEN with the laboratory of the
National Meteorological Bureau, the International Atomic Energy Agency
(IAEA), the Protection Office of the Ministry of Health (OPRI) and on
occasion with the laboratories of various countries.
53. At a national level, the French Government produces an annual
report on the monitoring of the environment and the radiological
situation. This report is distributed to elected representatives of
French Polynesia and to the Scientific Committee of the United Nations
on the effects of atomic radiation (UNSCEAR). Furthermore, during
tests in the atmosphere, several thousand biological samples have been
taken and atmospheric aerosols have been analysed, the results being
sent to UNSCEAR. This revealed no specific anomaly. Several
publications, visits and missions have always allowed some
transparency in the conditions in which tests are conducted. Led by
the DIRCEN and the AEC, the overall knowledge gathered at the
Polynesian sites in the last 25 years regarding science and the
environment will be passed on to the international community.
54. A particularly close watch is kept on the civilian population
in the Pacific. The global doses of radiation they have received in
the last three years are below the limits fixed for the public (the
average natural exposure in Polynesia is 1 mSv and the public should
not be exposed to more than 5 mSv). Regular radiological monitoring
of foodstuffs in Polynesia has been conducted since 1975; no anomaly |
has been noted. Verification is even more extensive on the sites
extending to a broad cross section of living foodstuffs (shellfish,
fish, poultry, coconut) and certain marine vegetation (algae and
planctae) which are apt to concentrate radioactive particles in
suspension in the water. These various studies of products destined
directly or indirectly for consumption show that the level of
artificial radioactivity ingested by the population of the region is
still below 0.1 mSv. This quantity is one thousandth of natural
exposure and can have no consequence of any kind on human health.
55. Two reference stations in Tahiti and Mururoa enable the
physical environment of the sites to be monitored. They follow
ambient radiation, radioactivity in the air and in rainwater.
Sediment immediately surrounding former 0 points of the Mururoa and
Fangataufa airborne tests still has residual artificial radioactivity.
Radioactive concentrations in the water of the lagoons, even if higher
than those of the Pacific, are still infinitesimal and do not
jeopardise undersea fauna and flora (they are identical to those of
the Baltic sea). Finally, artificial atmospheric radioactivity in
Mururoa and Fangataufa is still below one millionth of ambient natural
radioactivity; like the other measurements, they represent no danger
for persons on the site or inhabitants of the region.
56. However, outside verifications have also been conducted. In
this respect, France has agreed to the proposals made by outside
bodies or international authorities. This was the case for the
mission led by Mr. Haroun Tazieff in 1982 or the foreign scientific
mission led by Professor Atkinson, Director of the Christchurch
National Laboratory (New Zealand) in 1983. Similarly, the French
Commander Cousteau led a mission in this region in 1987; like others,
he concluded that the tests conducted at Mururoa and Fangataufa had no
notable effect on the populations or the environment of the region.
Finally, experts of the International Atomic Energy Agency also made |
comparative measurements of radioactivity during a stay in Mururoa in
1991. The results obtained confirmed the findings of the various
missions. Other foreign laboratories of scientific renown also took
part. There was a further series of verifications in 1994. Identical
checks will also be made at the conclusion of the last French nuclear
test campaign.
57. Finally, it is necessary to mention the scientific reports of
some countries which have been the strongest opponents of France.
First, there was a report commissioned by the Australian Prime
Minister, Paul Keating, from the Australian Nuclear Science and
Technology Organisation. The scientists who prepared this report
concluded on 16th August last, at a meeting with the press, that the
impact of the tests on the health of people in the Pacific region
would probably not be significant. Should there be any leakage, a
danger which the scientists minimised, they believed it would be
possible that the local environment might be affected. The impact
would be greater on the atoll and would diminish with distance (15).
The other scientific report came from New Zealand and, more
specifically, the External Assessments Bureau. Its content has not
yet been revealed officially by the head of the Wellington Government,
John Bolger, but it is believed that the rate of radioactivity in the
French atolls in question is even lower than that in New Zealand.
58. Nevertheless, French nuclear tests were resumed in a
relatively pernicious international atmosphere which should now be
examined.
III. Aspects of the international dispute over French nuclear testing
59. Objections to French nuclear testing stem, among others, from
states which consider they are concerned by French tests or from
international organisations or non-governmental organisations. They
are sometimes intermingled.
60. What has to be determined initially is the nature of these |
objections; in other words, what are the true arguments behind these
objections? Here one should try to rise above any controversy which
might encumber the constructive outcome of this analysis.
61. The arguments put forward are often mixed but may be
classified in two main categories: conventional ecological arguments
and political arguments. Only the former can find a relatively stable
juridical basis.
(a) Tests and the environment
62. The main ecological argument is based on the alteration of
the environment caused by these tests. International law has several
well-established standards to defend states which are victims of
pollution caused by another state (trans-border pollution). The legal
basis for such an allegation can be found in principle 21 of the
Stockholm Convention which stipulates that states have the obligation
to ensure that the activities under their control do not jeopardise
the environment of other states. This principle has been confirmed in
other conventions and international agreements such as the Montego Bay
convention on the law of the sea, the Rio declaration, the World
Charter of Nature and decisions of the International Court of Justice.
63. The various samples and measurements of the environment
examined previously can prove the existence of no significant
degradation of the environment or the atolls in the region. As long
as the states concerned have no tangible scientific proof, it appears
to be impossible for them to use this international legal standard to
call a halt to French nuclear tests. Finally, it seems doubtful that
countries such as Australia and New Zealand located several thousand
kilometres away from the atolls can be subjected to any kind of trans-
border nuclear pollution.
64. Moreover, on 23rd September, New Zealand's suit was dismissed
by the International Court of Justice which it had requested to reopen
the question of nuclear tests in 1974, but on the new basis of |
underground tests (16) ; the 1974 decision concerned tests in the
atmosphere by France and the Pacific and their consequences on the
environment. This matter had already been dismissed since France at
the time had officially given up this type of test. The International
Court of Justice has therefore not given an opinion on the substance
in these two cases but these events clearly show that it is difficult
for the time being to condemn a state which carries out nuclear tests.
65. Yet another argument prolongs the previous one by taking up a
principle that is at the very basis of international law of the
environment today to the effect that one does not inherit the land of
one's grandparents but one borrows it from one's children. The
countries that object base their criticism on the future consequences
of these tests. For them, the presence in the sub-strata of
radioactive matter is a danger for future generations in addition to
being a potential danger for the present one in the event of an
earthquake or collapse of the atolls because of their being undermined
by the multiplicity of tests. Certain international legal standards,
moreover, call upon states to abstain from any activity, the future
consequences of which they ignore. At the moment, these are mainly
conventions, declarations or agreements and their binding force is
still relative.
66. France meets this argument with allegations that the risk is
minimum, controls are effected regularly and radioactivity which is
present at a depth of something like one kilometre below the surface
will diminish with the years. France believes that the speed of water
movement in the basalt rock (which is not very permeable) is not
enough to allow radioactive substances liable to affect human health
to rise to the surface. Its view is that at the moment when water
which has been in contact with the radioactive matter in the sub-soil
regains the surface, its rate of radioactivity will have diminished to
such an extent that it will no longer present any danger for mankind. |
67. But the spirit that dominates certain arguments is perhaps
the relativisation of scientific knowledge. However just, science
cannot predict the future and decide the future consequences of a
persistently dangerous matter whose long-term effects cannot be known.
Too many parameters are in play for one to be able to give a
reasonable answer to such a prospective analysis. Precedents add
grist to the deep conviction of certain opponents of the tests;
indeed, from the end of the 1940s until the sixties, the Americans,
like the Russians, conducted scientific tests under the aegis of the
most eminent institutes on the effects of radioactive matter on human
beings. These facts, now well-known thanks to the declassification of
certain documents in the two countries for various reasons, clearly
show how ignorance of certain consequences of radioactive matter can
lead to serious trouble for human beings. Given the state of their
knowledge at the time, eminent research workers were convinced that
they could master the consequences of their acts. While not wishing
thereby to reduce mankind to powerlessness (any human activity
involves an element of risk), a critical mind should also accompany
scientists when they make certain affirmations. It is perhaps this
deficit of critical mind that calls in question for some the so-called
innocuity of nuclear tests. How can one be reasonably convinced of
the absence of future danger of radioactive substances buried several
hundred metres underground, even if this ground is formed by the
hardest rock?
(b) The French moratorium
68. On 8th April 1992, President Francois Mitterrand, through his
Prime Minister, announced the suspension of French nuclear tests that
year. Thus started the French moratorium on nuclear tests which was
renewed several times, finally to be suspended by the new French
President, Jacques Chirac, in 1995. President Mitterrand's
announcement came only a few days before the start of what was to have |
been the annual test campaign. The decision was intended to encourage
worldwide nuclear disarmament and to accomplish a symbolic act which
was supposed to encourage non-proliferation.
69. Clearly, one can question the legal validity of such a
moratorium at international level. It was a unilateral act by a state
committed to it for as long as anticipated in its declaration; thus,
any violation of this unilateral undertaking can be challenged by any
other state concerned. The jurisprudence of the International Court
of Justice in this matter is firm and unswerving. (17)
70. The French moratorium was subsequently renewed when in a
televised speech on 25th October 1993 Francois Mitterrand committed
France in this respect for as long as he would be Head of State, i.e.
until May 1995. Throughout that period, France abided by its
undertaking; in the words of the President, France reserved the
possibility of resuming tests after May 1995.
(c) The comprehensive test ban treaty
71. France is one of the thirty-seven states parties to the
Disarmament Conference which, in August 1993, decided unanimously to
negotiate a complete test ban treaty. The main conditions for such a
treaty were its universality and the effectiveness of guarantees it
would grant the signatory states. The work of the Disarmament
Conference in negotiating the treaty should be completed by the end of
1996. It was stated at the conference that before the treaty came
into force, the nuclear powers should exercise the greatest
discretion. France then indicated that it did not exclude a possible
resumption of tests before signing a test ban treaty. Certain
commentators, however, then remarked that such conduct was contrary to
the principle of goodwill that should preside over all international
negotiations. (18) According to this principle, if the conduct of one
of the parties to the negotiation was contrary to the aim and purpose
of the treaty being negotiated, such conduct would deprive the |
negotiation of its substance. They pointed out that the French
reservation was contrary to the undertaking, but was being negotiated
by the various states and that one could not reasonably accept in good
faith a conduct that was contrary to future commitments. In this
sense, France was calling in question the negotiations.
(d) The compatibility of tests and the Euratom treaty
72. In regard to the French nuclear tests, other criticism arose
in Europe regarding a possible violation by France of the Euratom
treaty of 1957. Article 34 of this treaty stipulates that in the
event of "particularly dangerous experiments" any member state is
obliged first to obtain the Commission's opinion. Furthermore, if
"such experiments are liable to affect the territories of other member
states", this opinion is binding. Those who criticised France in this
respect pointed out that 900 kilometres away from the test centre is
the Pitcairn island inhabited by 85 British subjects.
73. The dilemma is that the Euratom treaty concerns in principle
only civil nuclear questions but it is noted that the Commission is
also competent in health protection in connection with the security
provisions, whatever may be the origin of the explosion. Two requests
were made to the Commission in this respect at the beginning of summer
1995. Opinions differ regarding the responsibility of the Commission
in this matter.
74. This issue caused a dispute between the Commission on the one
hand and the Parliament on the other. In a spirit of appeasement and
to avoid coming to grips with the French authorities, the President of
the Commission, Mr. Santer, explained to the European Parliament that
the information available was not enough to reach an opinion. (19)
This very diplomatic answer did not prevent Mr. Santer, however, from
recalling that the Commission had no competence to give an opinion on
the political or military expediency of the French decision. The |
President of the Commission recalled that he would make full use of
Articles 35 and 36 of that treaty which allow important technical
information to be obtained; he undertook to be very active in this
respect. In this sense, on 6th September he urged France to provide
him with guarantees concerning the security of these tests and a team
of European experts was sent to the Mururoa atoll.
75. On 22nd October, the European Commission concluded that the
tests under way did not pose a perceptible risk of significant
exposure to radiation to workers or the population and that Article 34
of the Euratom treaty did not therefore apply. According to Mr.
Santer, a delegation of the Commission experts which had visited
Mururoa found that the level of radiation was 10 micro Sieverts as
opposed to the allowed exposure level of 5 000 micro Sieverts.
(e) The lack of European concertation
76. More generally, what was hard to accept by France's European
partners was the lack of prior consultation. There was no discussion
within the Union of the unilateral decision to resume tests. France's
unilateralism was seen by some to conflict with its words about co-
operation and European integration, particularly in defence matters.
Whether justified or not, such an attitude was bound to upset the
susceptibilities of certain countries of the Union which have always
been opposed to nuclear weapons. Thus, a proposal made by the French
political authorities at a later stage to Europeanise its deterrent
force was open to suspicion, even if this matter is a question of
great importance for the introduction of a common defence.
(f) European and international reaction
77. The resumption of nuclear tests by France did not therefore
fail to arouse some quite sharp reactions among partners and also at
world level (20). It is not necessary to revert to the opposition |
manifested in the European Parliament led mainly by socialist,
communist and ecological groups.
78. Reactions among European states were very diverse. The
United Kingdom remained relatively neutral and Germany, in the person
of Chancellor Helmut Kohl, while recalling that his country did not
have the same appreciation of nuclear matters as France, specified
that he in no way wished to call in question Franco-German friendship
which was the most precious outcome of the post war period (21). The
United Kingdom refused any condemnation (22). Other European
comments were not so lenient; newcomers to the Union (Austria,
Finland and Sweden) and certain founder members such as Belgium, Italy
or the Netherlands showed no mercy in their reactions. The Swedish
Minister of Culture, Margot Wallstrom, even marched alongside
Polynesian independentists on 3rd September.
79. Reactions at international level were also diverse. In the
Asia-Pacific zone, criticism was almost unanimous. It is
understandable that countries such as Japan should be particularly
sensitive about such events. New Zealand and Australia adopted an
extremely critical attitude towards France. South American countries
such as Chile also protested vigorously. On the other hand, the
United States and Russia only expressed regrets. China, which is
still holding nuclear tests, merely took note of the French tests, but
how could it have done otherwise?
IV. The resumption of French nuclear tests in 1995
80. According to the decision of the President of France, nuclear
tests in the South Pacific have been resumed to ensure the safety,
security and reliability of its deterrent forces and to complete
current work on the development of a test simulation.
81. In any event, it should be clearly noted that the purpose of
these tests is not to help to create new weapons. This was made
abundantly clear by the President of the French Republic on 14th June |
1995, when he announced the resumption of tests: "It is not a
question of increasing our armament, but of ensuring maintenance."
(a) The qualification of the TN-75
82. The second test conducted by France on the Fangataufa atoll
on 2nd October 1995 at 0.30 a.m. Paris time was intended, according to
the experts, to qualify the TN-75 warhead. This deduction was allowed
by the conjunction of two factors: first, the AEC stated that the
test had released energy of some 110 kt which corresponded to a
qualification firing of a nuclear warhead such as the TN-75 and,
second, this test followed twenty-two others conducted at different
stages in the development of the TN-75 and which had been begun at the
end of the seventies. Six of these nuclear warheads are to equip each
M-45 sea-to-ground missile. These weapons are to equip the new French
nuclear missile-launching submarines of the Strategic Ocean Force,
which will replace the present Redoutable class submarines, the first
of which was decommissioned in 1991.
83. The first submarine of this class, the Triomphant, will carry
out its first patrol in the autumn of 1996. Its commissioning will be
followed by that of the Temeraire in 1999, the Vigilant which most
probably will be ready only after the anticipated date of July 2001
and of a third unit that has not yet been named, but which has little
chance of being operational before January 2005. Each of the planned
four submarines will carry sixteen of this type of missile. It is
estimated that the construction of these four submarines will amount
to F 81.5 billion.
84. So far, the Redoutable class submarines forming France's
Strategic Ocean Force have been equipped with M-4 missiles, each with
six TN-70 or TN-71 nuclear warheads of 150 kt. Compared with these
two nuclear warhead models, the TN-75 is what the experts at the
Direction des Applications Militaires du Commissariat a l'Energie
Atomique (DAM-CEA) have termed to be a major technological leap. This |
is a particularly high-performing warhead, unprecedented in France,
whose only equivalent is to be found in the most sophisticated United
States or Russian weapons. Very few specific technical data are
available in view of the sensitivity of the question which is
classified "secret-defense". It is nevertheless known that the power
of this thermonuclear device is some 100 kt and its load has been
miniaturised to the maximum. It is also lighter than previous
weapons, which increases the range of the missile. The new warhead
has been hardened, which makes it less vulnerable to electromagnetic
impulses which might deregulate its operation in-flight and it also
has stealth features to make it less detectable and is equipped with
more decoys to divert antiballistic defences. The TN-75 draws the
maximum from the latest technology in terms of weight, volume and
power. As a comparison, its power is six to ten times that of the
Hiroshima bomb (5 tons for a power of some 15 kt). The total weapons
produced will be the equivalent of a total destructive power two
thousand times the power of that bomb.
85. The M-45 missile is intended to carry six TN-75 warheads
which is thus a considerable technological progress compared with the
M-4 missile. It has a range of 6 000 km (instead of 4-5 000 km for
the M-4). Its warhead is of a totally new concept. It also has
penetration capabilities and decoy systems which allow it to divert
the electronic counter-measures of an enemy's sophisticated defences.
(23)
86. According to parliamentary sources, the total cost of
developing this weapon is estimated at F 26 billion, which, added to
the cost of the new Strategic Ocean Force, gives a total of some
hundred billion francs.
87. In conclusion, the M-45 missile armed with six TN-75 nuclear
warheads is a far more sophisticated weapon than its predecessors;
its different technical characteristics allow it to respond better to
the level of advancement reached by foreign defences. This new |
weapon, destined to ensure the major part of the French deterrent
force until approximately the year 2010, is therefore an essential
stake in maintaining the credibility of the French deterrent force.
It should be noted that the TN-75 was already designed when France
interrupted its nuclear tests in 1992, without having been validated.
Evidently, it cannot be said that this is an increase in armaments but
merely a question of verifying the reliability of a weapon that
existed already.
(b) Verification of the reliability and the security
of existing weapons
88. Another technical justification given by the French
Government is the absolute need for maintenance for the nuclear
weapons already in service. (24) It is necessary to verify the
ageing of the various parts of these weapons. The 60 kiloton test
held on 27th October last was certainly organised for this reason.
Indeed its power corresponded to no category of weapon in service
operationally (bombers and all kinds of missiles). The French Defence
Ministry, moreover, declared that this test was intended to guarantee
the future safety and reliability of these weapons. At the present
juncture of French scientific knowledge, only tests can verify their
state. Not to carry out such verification tests might raise questions
about the reliability of these weapons and constitute a serious danger
should they have deteriorated.
89. It is anticipated that the simulation programme France is
working to achieve will allow this verification to be effected in
laboratory without any further testing; this will be examined later
in the present report.
(c) The simulation of nuclear tests (the PALEN programme)
90. Part of the French final test campaign is meant to provide
the scientific information necessary for achieving a simulation
programme. This programme is based on numerical simulation backed by |
experience; for that, a few specific tests are essential in order to
isolate and provide instances of essential aspects revealed through
full-blown tests, which provide a back-up for the simulation system.
91. A report of the French National Assembly (25) in December
1993 during the French moratorium considered that ten more tests would
still be useful for providing the information necessary for achieving
the programme. In view of the scientific progress and the
international atmosphere in this respect, it seems that today these
estimates have been revised downwards.
92. One test, called Lycurgue, was conducted before the French
moratorium in 1992, which allowed French physicians to learn more
about the phenomena of pollution. The present tests will certainly
also cover this very complex area of science.
93. France has thus affirmed that it wished to sign the treaty
banning nuclear tests and also maintain and modernise its nuclear
deterrent force. The only way for it to reconcile these two aims is
to acquire the technology allowing nuclear tests to be simulated and
for that it is essential to conduct a few more tests. As a necessary
condition for obtaining this technology, these tests will provide
backing and validation for the various processes linked with
simulation, more specifically, lasers and numerical simulation means.
V. The role of France's nuclear weapons in the defence of Europe
94. There is a possibility that the reactions of many EU-WEU
member states to the French nuclear tests will spark off a new debate
on the role of the French nuclear arsenal in the defence of Europe.
The recent proposals made by both the President and the Prime Minister
of France to Europeanise the French nuclear forces, although not
entirely new (26), cannot be ignored by the European allies and they
should also be linked with an urgently-needed public debate on the
role and significance of nuclear weapons in the post-cold war world. |
95. Before any additional development, it is necessary to fix the
framework of the notion of concerted deterrence. Indeed, it is not a
matter of "shared deterrence" which would mean someone also having a
finger on the trigger. The President of the French Republic alone
retains this prerogative. Nor is it a matter of "enlarged deterrence"
which would imply just extending the French nuclear guarantee to
Germany. Concerted deterrence means a dialogue between partners on
nuclear deterrent force procedures in addition to an extension of
guarantee. (27)
96. It should be recalled here, that in June 1992, the WEU
Assembly recommended that the Council define "a European concept of
the role of nuclear weapons and developing consultations between its
members on the possibility of resorting to such weapons". (28) A
similar approach was set out in Recommendation 540.
(a) The French proposal
97. After the resumption of its nuclear tests, France proposed
that its European partners, in the framework of instituting a common
defence, think about the availability of its nuclear deterrence
forces. Thus, on 31st August 1995, President Chirac said: "As it
builds up its defence, the European Union might wish the French
deterrent to play a role in this defence." This idea was even more
clearly affirmed the same day by the French Prime Minister, Alain
Juppe, who said that co-operation in defence questions could no longer
overlook the nuclear dimension of our common security. The Prime
Minister was merely recalling the concept of concerted deterrence he
had already mentioned at the beginning of 1995 when he was Minister
for Foreign Affairs in the previous government.
98. The vague wording of the French proposal needs to be spelled
out, but it will inevitably raise political, military and strategic
problems that will have to be examined more closely. It should also
be noted that this proposal was made in the adverse context of the |
resumption without consultation of French nuclear tests. Such a poor
view of this resumption was taken by public opinion in many countries
that it would seem difficult for any European country to voice its
approval and particularly the for the United Kingdom and Germany, to
which this proposal was clearly directed. It should not be forgotten
that in the latter country pacifist, anti-nuclear and ecological
movements are very influential. Moreover for historical reasons, any
discussion of defence questions in Germany is still very delicate.
Indeed, any immediate approval would be taken by public opinion to
imply approval of the French tests. It would not fit into the
framework of this report to reveal the deep-rooted intentions of the
various European partners towards France. Mention will merely be made
of the various tendencies and positions adopted at official level in
the countries concerned, while the position of Germany and the United
Kingdom will be highlighted in more detail.
(b) The German reaction
99. The reaction of German political authorities to the French
proposal for concerted deterrence could be characterised as polite and
rather non-committal. In fact, this is the best that could be
expected, bearing in mind a public opinion which is very hostile to
nuclear tests and nuclear weapons in general. The German Minister for
Foreign Affairs, Klaus Kinkel, in a statement at the beginning of
September, believed that the idea of concerted deterrence was
interesting and should be discussed and studied closely. While not
constituting acceptance, this position allowed Germany diplomatically
to defer discussion of the basic question underlying such an offer.
Apparently, the German Government tried to avoid any statement which
could harm the Franco-German relationship which is passing through a
sensitive period due to other questions regarding European
integration.
100. The German Minister for Foreign Affairs did not close the |
door on the French proposal when he said that, after the end of the
tests, Germany would be prepared to reexamine the status of French and
British deterrent forces in order to facilitate the creation of a
European defence identity and give it credibility. Germany would not
make the first step, the ideas must come from France. Having just
hinted at its intentions for the time being, France will have an
important role to play in this field.
101. Later, Minister Kinkel seemed to be hedging his position in
this respect in an interview with Le Figaro on 8th October 1995:
"NATO is our nuclear umbrella. We do not wish to have access to the
nuclear bomb, neither through the main entrance, nor through the back
door (concerning concerted deterrence). For me, it is a question of
politeness to talk about it with our French friends". Once again,
these remarks cannot be taken out of the context of the growing
opposition of the German people to French tests in the South Pacific.
102. In the internal German debate on this issue, the social-
democrat opposition is strongly opposed to the French proposal.
Within the coalition government itself, opinions diverge between
Europeans and Atlanticists; these differences of view are represented
by such influential persons on the German political scene as Wolfgang
Schauble, Chairman of the Christian-Democrat parliamentary group in
the Bundestag, and Volker Ruhe, former Defence Minister of Germany.
While the former believed he could not imagine a future European
security without a nuclear component, the latter thought that Germany
already had the benefit of American protection and that French nuclear
weapons had always had direct significance for European security. (29)
More radical opposition to any co-operation in this matter is
represented by Edmund Stoiber (close to Theo Waigel, Finance Minister
in Bonn and Chairman of the Bavarian CSU), Minister-President of
Bavaria. Speaking to journalists in Bonn on 22nd September last, he |
said that the German Government would not follow up the French
proposal to Europeanise the strike force.
103. Other important actors on the German political scene voiced
their interest in the French proposal. Thus, Karl Lamers, Christian-
Democrat group spokesman on foreign policy in the Bundestag, said this
was an opportunity to seize while affirming that concerted deterrence
should be set in the overall framework of Europe's common foreign and
security policy (30). All agreed, however, not to interpret the
French offer as a proposal to have a finger on the trigger; it was
more a question of reflecting on proposals for concerted strategy in
this matter.
104. If one wishes to understand what the German reaction might
be to the French proposal it is necessary to refer to the actual state
of affairs in the nuclear debate in Germany. As already noted
previously, there are strong anti-nuclear pacifist and ecological
lobbies in Germany, which are certainly very much against such a
proposal. The most radical of them are even opposed to any form of
using nuclear means, be they civil or military. Some also amalgamate
the ban on producing nuclear weapons imposed after the second world
war (31) with the opening of a debate on a new nuclear guarantee that
could protect Germany.
105. Yet it must not be forgotten that this hostility did not
prevent Euromissiles being stationed on German territory, thus giving
it the benefit of a first nuclear guarantee. Likewise, it is recalled
that the supposed constitutional obstacles against "out-of-area"
operations by German armed forces were taken away by a decision of the
German constitutional court, thus enabling the government to take the
action which it deemed necessary. Although the latter arguments may
not herald an affirmative answer from Germany regarding the French
proposal, they nevertheless indicate a certain flexibility in German
attitudes.
106. Finally, a last factor that might be interesting to recall
in this respect is a historical event that has already been mentioned |
in the first part of the present report: the secret agreements on
defence questions and armaments, including nuclear questions, between
France, Germany and Italy of 1957-58 (Colomb-Bechar, the agreement
between the Defence Ministers of Germany (Strauss) and France
(Bourges-Maunoury) on 1st January 1957, the protocol of 25th November
1957, including Italy in addition and the agreement of 8th April 1958
concerning more particularly the building of an isotope separation
plant at Pierrelatte. The full texts of these agreements were
published only a few years ago.
107. The framework for these co-operation agreements was to be
NATO and WEU and their aim was to harmonise the military concepts of
France and Germany concerning the organisation and doctrines governing
the use and armament of their forces, with particular regard to areas
of new weaponry. The category of new weaponry allows it to be thought
that the negotiators at the time did not exclude co-operation in the
nuclear military field. Emphasis was already laid at the time on the
existence of problems of a specifically European nature and problems
specific to European countries of the alliance, and this throws
considerable light on the reluctance of Bonn and Paris with regard to
NATO's strategy. Doubts about the readiness of the United States to
use its nuclear means in the event of significant local hostilities in
Europe was an important factor in the wish to reach agreement on this
question.
108. The prevailing concept at the time was, nevertheless, not to
weaken NATO, even though the purpose of this agreement was to face up
to American discrimination in nuclear matters between members of NATO.
Chancellor Adenauer, in the words of Defence Minister Strauss, then
said he was quite prepared to join with France and Italy in questions
of aircraft, rockets and nuclear weapons, which he believed the three
countries needed. Thus the protocol of 25th November 1957 clearly
specified that co-operation would give priority to aircraft, missiles |
and the military applications of nuclear energy. However the return
to power of General de Gaulle on 1st July 1958 put an end to these
agreements and more particularly their nuclear aspects.
109. These brief historical facts can in no way be compared to
the present French proposal concerning concerted deterrence, be it in
content or the international context of the time. It is nevertheless
interesting to see how certain questions persist throughout history.
Reference is made here to the specific problems of European countries
of the alliance which again seem to be on the agenda in regard to the
discussion of concerted deterrence. It is also interesting to note
that the Germans have not always been opposed to discussion of
military nuclear problems.
110. The nature of the German answer will be very important from
a political point of view. A positive answer would open the door to a
European doctrine of deterrence in which not only British but also
French nuclear guarantees would be extended to other countries. The
fact that a future common defence would be covered by a concerted
European deterrence would undoubtedly strengthen the political weight
of Europe on the international scene. Indeed, one cannot deny the
political impact of nuclear weapons in the world today. Mention is
sometimes made of the equalising power of this weapon in that it
allows a country that possesses it to pull itself up to the same level
as the other countries that have it. It cannot therefore be gainsaid
that such a choice would influence the CFSP instituted by the
Maastricht Treaty by strengthening Europe's authority vis-a-vis its
partners. Whether or not one is opposed to the nuclear weapon is
still today a criterion of state power. It is still a factor of
independence, too.
For information, please contact: Yves ROBINS, Press Counsellor
/ _/ _/_/_/_/ _/ _/
ASSEMBLY OF WESTERN EUROPEAN UNION
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43, avenue du President Wilson |
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F-75775 Paris cedex 16 France
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Tel 331-53672200; Fax 331-47204543
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E-mail: 100315.240@Compuserve.com
REPORT (1)
submitted on behalf of the Defence Committee (2)
by Sir Russell Johnston, Rapporteur
PART 2 OF 3
III. Aspects of the international dispute over French nuclear testing
59. Objections to French nuclear testing stem, among others, from
states which consider they are concerned by French tests or from
international organisations or non-governmental organisations. They
are sometimes intermingled.
60. What has to be determined initially is the nature of these
objections; in other words, what are the true arguments behind these
objections? Here one should try to rise above any controversy which
might encumber the constructive outcome of this analysis.
61. The arguments put forward are often mixed but may be
classified in two main categories: conventional ecological arguments
and political arguments. Only the former can find a relatively stable
juridical basis.
(a) Tests and the environment
62. The main ecological argument is based on the alteration of
the environment caused by these tests. International law has several
well-established standards to defend states which are victims of
pollution caused by another state (trans-border pollution). The legal
basis for such an allegation can be found in principle 21 of the
Stockholm Convention which stipulates that states have the obligation
to ensure that the activities under their control do not jeopardise
the environment of other states. This principle has been confirmed in
other conventions and international agreements such as the Montego Bay |
convention on the law of the sea, the Rio declaration, the World
Charter of Nature and decisions of the International Court of Justice.
63. The various samples and measurements of the environment
examined previously can prove the existence of no significant
degradation of the environment or the atolls in the region. As long
as the states concerned have no tangible scientific proof, it appears
to be impossible for them to use this international legal standard to
call a halt to French nuclear tests. Finally, it seems doubtful that
countries such as Australia and New Zealand located several thousand
kilometres away from the atolls can be subjected to any kind of trans-
border nuclear pollution.
64. Moreover, on 23rd September, New Zealand's suit was dismissed
by the International Court of Justice which it had requested to reopen
the question of nuclear tests in 1974, but on the new basis of
underground tests (16) ; the 1974 decision concerned tests in the
atmosphere by France and the Pacific and their consequences on the
environment. This matter had already been dismissed since France at
the time had officially given up this type of test. The International
Court of Justice has therefore not given an opinion on the substance
in these two cases but these events clearly show that it is difficult
for the time being to condemn a state which carries out nuclear tests.
65. Yet another argument prolongs the previous one by taking up a
principle that is at the very basis of international law of the
environment today to the effect that one does not inherit the land of
one's grandparents but one borrows it from one's children. The
countries that object base their criticism on the future consequences
of these tests. For them, the presence in the sub-strata of
radioactive matter is a danger for future generations in addition to
being a potential danger for the present one in the event of an
earthquake or collapse of the atolls because of their being undermined
by the multiplicity of tests. Certain international legal standards, |
moreover, call upon states to abstain from any activity, the future
consequences of which they ignore. At the moment, these are mainly
conventions, declarations or agreements and their binding force is
still relative.
66. France meets this argument with allegations that the risk is
minimum, controls are effected regularly and radioactivity which is
present at a depth of something like one kilometre below the surface
will diminish with the years. France believes that the speed of water
movement in the basalt rock (which is not very permeable) is not
enough to allow radioactive substances liable to affect human health
to rise to the surface. Its view is that at the moment when water
which has been in contact with the radioactive matter in the sub-soil
regains the surface, its rate of radioactivity will have diminished to
such an extent that it will no longer present any danger for mankind.
67. But the spirit that dominates certain arguments is perhaps
the relativisation of scientific knowledge. However just, science
cannot predict the future and decide the future consequences of a
persistently dangerous matter whose long-term effects cannot be known.
Too many parameters are in play for one to be able to give a
reasonable answer to such a prospective analysis. Precedents add
grist to the deep conviction of certain opponents of the tests;
indeed, from the end of the 1940s until the sixties, the Americans,
like the Russians, conducted scientific tests under the aegis of the
most eminent institutes on the effects of radioactive matter on human
beings. These facts, now well-known thanks to the declassification of
certain documents in the two countries for various reasons, clearly
show how ignorance of certain consequences of radioactive matter can
lead to serious trouble for human beings. Given the state of their
knowledge at the time, eminent research workers were convinced that
they could master the consequences of their acts. While not wishing
thereby to reduce mankind to powerlessness (any human activity |
involves an element of risk), a critical mind should also accompany
scientists when they make certain affirmations. It is perhaps this
deficit of critical mind that calls in question for some the so-called
innocuity of nuclear tests. How can one be reasonably convinced of
the absence of future danger of radioactive substances buried several
hundred metres underground, even if this ground is formed by the
hardest rock?
(b) The French moratorium
68. On 8th April 1992, President Francois Mitterrand, through his
Prime Minister, announced the suspension of French nuclear tests that
year. Thus started the French moratorium on nuclear tests which was
renewed several times, finally to be suspended by the new French
President, Jacques Chirac, in 1995. President Mitterrand's
announcement came only a few days before the start of what was to have
been the annual test campaign. The decision was intended to encourage
worldwide nuclear disarmament and to accomplish a symbolic act which
was supposed to encourage non-proliferation.
69. Clearly, one can question the legal validity of such a
moratorium at international level. It was a unilateral act by a state
committed to it for as long as anticipated in its declaration; thus,
any violation of this unilateral undertaking can be challenged by any
other state concerned. The jurisprudence of the International Court
of Justice in this matter is firm and unswerving. (17)
70. The French moratorium was subsequently renewed when in a
televised speech on 25th October 1993 Francois Mitterrand committed
France in this respect for as long as he would be Head of State, i.e.
until May 1995. Throughout that period, France abided by its
undertaking; in the words of the President, France reserved the
possibility of resuming tests after May 1995.
(c) The comprehensive test ban treaty
71. France is one of the thirty-seven states parties to the |
Disarmament Conference which, in August 1993, decided unanimously to
negotiate a complete test ban treaty. The main conditions for such a
treaty were its universality and the effectiveness of guarantees it
would grant the signatory states. The work of the Disarmament
Conference in negotiating the treaty should be completed by the end of
1996. It was stated at the conference that before the treaty came
into force, the nuclear powers should exercise the greatest
discretion. France then indicated that it did not exclude a possible
resumption of tests before signing a test ban treaty. Certain
commentators, however, then remarked that such conduct was contrary to
the principle of goodwill that should preside over all international
negotiations. (18) According to this principle, if the conduct of one
of the parties to the negotiation was contrary to the aim and purpose
of the treaty being negotiated, such conduct would deprive the
negotiation of its substance. They pointed out that the French
reservation was contrary to the undertaking, but was being negotiated
by the various states and that one could not reasonably accept in good
faith a conduct that was contrary to future commitments. In this
sense, France was calling in question the negotiations.
(d) The compatibility of tests and the Euratom treaty
72. In regard to the French nuclear tests, other criticism arose
in Europe regarding a possible violation by France of the Euratom
treaty of 1957. Article 34 of this treaty stipulates that in the
event of "particularly dangerous experiments" any member state is
obliged first to obtain the Commission's opinion. Furthermore, if
"such experiments are liable to affect the territories of other member
states", this opinion is binding. Those who criticised France in this
respect pointed out that 900 kilometres away from the test centre is
the Pitcairn island inhabited by 85 British subjects.
73. The dilemma is that the Euratom treaty concerns in principle |
only civil nuclear questions but it is noted that the Commission is
also competent in health protection in connection with the security
provisions, whatever may be the origin of the explosion. Two requests
were made to the Commission in this respect at the beginning of summer
1995. Opinions differ regarding the responsibility of the Commission
in this matter.
74. This issue caused a dispute between the Commission on the one
hand and the Parliament on the other. In a spirit of appeasement and
to avoid coming to grips with the French authorities, the President of
the Commission, Mr. Santer, explained to the European Parliament that
the information available was not enough to reach an opinion. (19)
This very diplomatic answer did not prevent Mr. Santer, however, from
recalling that the Commission had no competence to give an opinion on
the political or military expediency of the French decision. The
President of the Commission recalled that he would make full use of
Articles 35 and 36 of that treaty which allow important technical
information to be obtained; he undertook to be very active in this
respect. In this sense, on 6th September he urged France to provide
him with guarantees concerning the security of these tests and a team
of European experts was sent to the Mururoa atoll.
75. On 22nd October, the European Commission concluded that the
tests under way did not pose a perceptible risk of significant
exposure to radiation to workers or the population and that Article 34
of the Euratom treaty did not therefore apply. According to Mr.
Santer, a delegation of the Commission experts which had visited
Mururoa found that the level of radiation was 10 micro Sieverts as
opposed to the allowed exposure level of 5 000 micro Sieverts.
(e) The lack of European concertation
76. More generally, what was hard to accept by France's European
partners was the lack of prior consultation. There was no discussion |
within the Union of the unilateral decision to resume tests. France's
unilateralism was seen by some to conflict with its words about co-
operation and European integration, particularly in defence matters.
Whether justified or not, such an attitude was bound to upset the
susceptibilities of certain countries of the Union which have always
been opposed to nuclear weapons. Thus, a proposal made by the French
political authorities at a later stage to Europeanise its deterrent
force was open to suspicion, even if this matter is a question of
great importance for the introduction of a common defence.
(f) European and international reaction
77. The resumption of nuclear tests by France did not therefore
fail to arouse some quite sharp reactions among partners and also at
world level (20). It is not necessary to revert to the opposition
manifested in the European Parliament led mainly by socialist,
communist and ecological groups.
78. Reactions among European states were very diverse. The
United Kingdom remained relatively neutral and Germany, in the person
of Chancellor Helmut Kohl, while recalling that his country did not
have the same appreciation of nuclear matters as France, specified
that he in no way wished to call in question Franco-German friendship
which was the most precious outcome of the post war period (21). The
United Kingdom refused any condemnation (22). Other European
comments were not so lenient; newcomers to the Union (Austria,
Finland and Sweden) and certain founder members such as Belgium, Italy
or the Netherlands showed no mercy in their reactions. The Swedish
Minister of Culture, Margot Wallstrom, even marched alongside
Polynesian independentists on 3rd September.
79. Reactions at international level were also diverse. In the
Asia-Pacific zone, criticism was almost unanimous. It is
understandable that countries such as Japan should be particularly
sensitive about such events. New Zealand and Australia adopted an |
extremely critical attitude towards France. South American countries
such as Chile also protested vigorously. On the other hand, the
United States and Russia only expressed regrets. China, which is
still holding nuclear tests, merely took note of the French tests, but
how could it have done otherwise?
IV. The resumption of French nuclear tests in 1995
80. According to the decision of the President of France, nuclear
tests in the South Pacific have been resumed to ensure the safety,
security and reliability of its deterrent forces and to complete
current work on the development of a test simulation.
81. In any event, it should be clearly noted that the purpose of
these tests is not to help to create new weapons. This was made
abundantly clear by the President of the French Republic on 14th June
1995, when he announced the resumption of tests: "It is not a
question of increasing our armament, but of ensuring maintenance."
(a) The qualification of the TN-75
82. The second test conducted by France on the Fangataufa atoll
on 2nd October 1995 at 0.30 a.m. Paris time was intended, according to
the experts, to qualify the TN-75 warhead. This deduction was allowed
by the conjunction of two factors: first, the AEC stated that the
test had released energy of some 110 kt which corresponded to a
qualification firing of a nuclear warhead such as the TN-75 and,
second, this test followed twenty-two others conducted at different
stages in the development of the TN-75 and which had been begun at the
end of the seventies. Six of these nuclear warheads are to equip each
M-45 sea-to-ground missile. These weapons are to equip the new French
nuclear missile-launching submarines of the Strategic Ocean Force,
which will replace the present Redoutable class submarines, the first
of which was decommissioned in 1991.
83. The first submarine of this class, the Triomphant, will carry |
out its first patrol in the autumn of 1996. Its commissioning will be
followed by that of the Temeraire in 1999, the Vigilant which most
probably will be ready only after the anticipated date of July 2001
and of a third unit that has not yet been named, but which has little
chance of being operational before January 2005. Each of the planned
four submarines will carry sixteen of this type of missile. It is
estimated that the construction of these four submarines will amount
to F 81.5 billion.
84. So far, the Redoutable class submarines forming France's
Strategic Ocean Force have been equipped with M-4 missiles, each with
six TN-70 or TN-71 nuclear warheads of 150 kt. Compared with these
two nuclear warhead models, the TN-75 is what the experts at the
Direction des Applications Militaires du Commissariat a l'Energie
Atomique (DAM-CEA) have termed to be a major technological leap. This
is a particularly high-performing warhead, unprecedented in France,
whose only equivalent is to be found in the most sophisticated United
States or Russian weapons. Very few specific technical data are
available in view of the sensitivity of the question which is
classified "secret-defense". It is nevertheless known that the power
of this thermonuclear device is some 100 kt and its load has been
miniaturised to the maximum. It is also lighter than previous
weapons, which increases the range of the missile. The new warhead
has been hardened, which makes it less vulnerable to electromagnetic
impulses which might deregulate its operation in-flight and it also
has stealth features to make it less detectable and is equipped with
more decoys to divert antiballistic defences. The TN-75 draws the
maximum from the latest technology in terms of weight, volume and
power. As a comparison, its power is six to ten times that of the
Hiroshima bomb (5 tons for a power of some 15 kt). The total weapons
produced will be the equivalent of a total destructive power two
thousand times the power of that bomb. |
85. The M-45 missile is intended to carry six TN-75 warheads
which is thus a considerable technological progress compared with the
M-4 missile. It has a range of 6 000 km (instead of 4-5 000 km for
the M-4). Its warhead is of a totally new concept. It also has
penetration capabilities and decoy systems which allow it to divert
the electronic counter-measures of an enemy's sophisticated defences.
(23)
86. According to parliamentary sources, the total cost of
developing this weapon is estimated at F 26 billion, which, added to
the cost of the new Strategic Ocean Force, gives a total of some
hundred billion francs.
87. In conclusion, the M-45 missile armed with six TN-75 nuclear
warheads is a far more sophisticated weapon than its predecessors;
its different technical characteristics allow it to respond better to
the level of advancement reached by foreign defences. This new
weapon, destined to ensure the major part of the French deterrent
force until approximately the year 2010, is therefore an essential
stake in maintaining the credibility of the French deterrent force.
It should be noted that the TN-75 was already designed when France
interrupted its nuclear tests in 1992, without having been validated.
Evidently, it cannot be said that this is an increase in armaments but
merely a question of verifying the reliability of a weapon that
existed already.
(b) Verification of the reliability and the security
of existing weapons
88. Another technical justification given by the French
Government is the absolute need for maintenance for the nuclear
weapons already in service. (24) It is necessary to verify the
ageing of the various parts of these weapons. The 60 kiloton test
held on 27th October last was certainly organised for this reason.
Indeed its power corresponded to no category of weapon in service
operationally (bombers and all kinds of missiles). The French Defence |
Ministry, moreover, declared that this test was intended to guarantee
the future safety and reliability of these weapons. At the present
juncture of French scientific knowledge, only tests can verify their
state. Not to carry out such verification tests might raise questions
about the reliability of these weapons and constitute a serious danger
should they have deteriorated.
89. It is anticipated that the simulation programme France is
working to achieve will allow this verification to be effected in
laboratory without any further testing; this will be examined later
in the present report.
(c) The simulation of nuclear tests (the PALEN programme)
90. Part of the French final test campaign is meant to provide
the scientific information necessary for achieving a simulation
programme. This programme is based on numerical simulation backed by
experience; for that, a few specific tests are essential in order to
isolate and provide instances of essential aspects revealed through
full-blown tests, which provide a back-up for the simulation system.
91. A report of the French National Assembly (25) in December
1993 during the French moratorium considered that ten more tests would
still be useful for providing the information necessary for achieving
the programme. In view of the scientific progress and the
international atmosphere in this respect, it seems that today these
estimates have been revised downwards.
92. One test, called Lycurgue, was conducted before the French
moratorium in 1992, which allowed French physicians to learn more
about the phenomena of pollution. The present tests will certainly
also cover this very complex area of science.
93. France has thus affirmed that it wished to sign the treaty
banning nuclear tests and also maintain and modernise its nuclear
deterrent force. The only way for it to reconcile these two aims is
to acquire the technology allowing nuclear tests to be simulated and |
for that it is essential to conduct a few more tests. As a necessary
condition for obtaining this technology, these tests will provide
backing and validation for the various processes linked with
simulation, more specifically, lasers and numerical simulation means.
V. The role of France's nuclear weapons in the defence of Europe
94. There is a possibility that the reactions of many EU-WEU
member states to the French nuclear tests will spark off a new debate
on the role of the French nuclear arsenal in the defence of Europe.
The recent proposals made by both the President and the Prime Minister
of France to Europeanise the French nuclear forces, although not
entirely new (26), cannot be ignored by the European allies and they
should also be linked with an urgently-needed public debate on the
role and significance of nuclear weapons in the post-cold war world.
95. Before any additional development, it is necessary to fix the
framework of the notion of concerted deterrence. Indeed, it is not a
matter of "shared deterrence" which would mean someone also having a
finger on the trigger. The President of the French Republic alone
retains this prerogative. Nor is it a matter of "enlarged deterrence"
which would imply just extending the French nuclear guarantee to
Germany. Concerted deterrence means a dialogue between partners on
nuclear deterrent force procedures in addition to an extension of
guarantee. (27)
96. It should be recalled here, that in June 1992, the WEU
Assembly recommended that the Council define "a European concept of
the role of nuclear weapons and developing consultations between its
members on the possibility of resorting to such weapons". (28) A
similar approach was set out in Recommendation 540.
(a) The French proposal
97. After the resumption of its nuclear tests, France proposed
that its European partners, in the framework of instituting a common |
defence, think about the availability of its nuclear deterrence
forces. Thus, on 31st August 1995, President Chirac said: "As it
builds up its defence, the European Union might wish the French
deterrent to play a role in this defence." This idea was even more
clearly affirmed the same day by the French Prime Minister, Alain
Juppe, who said that co-operation in defence questions could no longer
overlook the nuclear dimension of our common security. The Prime
Minister was merely recalling the concept of concerted deterrence he
had already mentioned at the beginning of 1995 when he was Minister
for Foreign Affairs in the previous government.
98. The vague wording of the French proposal needs to be spelled
out, but it will inevitably raise political, military and strategic
problems that will have to be examined more closely. It should also
be noted that this proposal was made in the adverse context of the
resumption without consultation of French nuclear tests. Such a poor
view of this resumption was taken by public opinion in many countries
that it would seem difficult for any European country to voice its
approval and particularly the for the United Kingdom and Germany, to
which this proposal was clearly directed. It should not be forgotten
that in the latter country pacifist, anti-nuclear and ecological
movements are very influential. Moreover for historical reasons, any
discussion of defence questions in Germany is still very delicate.
Indeed, any immediate approval would be taken by public opinion to
imply approval of the French tests. It would not fit into the
framework of this report to reveal the deep-rooted intentions of the
various European partners towards France. Mention will merely be made
of the various tendencies and positions adopted at official level in
the countries concerned, while the position of Germany and the United
Kingdom will be highlighted in more detail.
(b) The German reaction
99. The reaction of German political authorities to the French |
proposal for concerted deterrence could be characterised as polite and
rather non-committal. In fact, this is the best that could be
expected, bearing in mind a public opinion which is very hostile to
nuclear tests and nuclear weapons in general. The German Minister for
Foreign Affairs, Klaus Kinkel, in a statement at the beginning of
September, believed that the idea of concerted deterrence was
interesting and should be discussed and studied closely. While not
constituting acceptance, this position allowed Germany diplomatically
to defer discussion of the basic question underlying such an offer.
Apparently, the German Government tried to avoid any statement which
could harm the Franco-German relationship which is passing through a
sensitive period due to other questions regarding European
integration.
100. The German Minister for Foreign Affairs did not close the
door on the French proposal when he said that, after the end of the
tests, Germany would be prepared to reexamine the status of French and
British deterrent forces in order to facilitate the creation of a
European defence identity and give it credibility. Germany would not
make the first step, the ideas must come from France. Having just
hinted at its intentions for the time being, France will have an
important role to play in this field.
101. Later, Minister Kinkel seemed to be hedging his position in
this respect in an interview with Le Figaro on 8th October 1995:
"NATO is our nuclear umbrella. We do not wish to have access to the
nuclear bomb, neither through the main entrance, nor through the back
door (concerning concerted deterrence). For me, it is a question of
politeness to talk about it with our French friends". Once again,
these remarks cannot be taken out of the context of the growing
opposition of the German people to French tests in the South Pacific.
102. In the internal German debate on this issue, the social-
democrat opposition is strongly opposed to the French proposal. |
Within the coalition government itself, opinions diverge between
Europeans and Atlanticists; these differences of view are represented
by such influential persons on the German political scene as Wolfgang
Schauble, Chairman of the Christian-Democrat parliamentary group in
the Bundestag, and Volker Ruhe, former Defence Minister of Germany.
While the former believed he could not imagine a future European
security without a nuclear component, the latter thought that Germany
already had the benefit of American protection and that French nuclear
weapons had always had direct significance for European security. (29)
More radical opposition to any co-operation in this matter is
represented by Edmund Stoiber (close to Theo Waigel, Finance Minister
in Bonn and Chairman of the Bavarian CSU), Minister-President of
Bavaria. Speaking to journalists in Bonn on 22nd September last, he
said that the German Government would not follow up the French
proposal to Europeanise the strike force.
103. Other important actors on the German political scene voiced
their interest in the French proposal. Thus, Karl Lamers, Christian-
Democrat group spokesman on foreign policy in the Bundestag, said this
was an opportunity to seize while affirming that concerted deterrence
should be set in the overall framework of Europe's common foreign and
security policy (30). All agreed, however, not to interpret the
French offer as a proposal to have a finger on the trigger; it was
more a question of reflecting on proposals for concerted strategy in
this matter.
104. If one wishes to understand what the German reaction might
be to the French proposal it is necessary to refer to the actual state
of affairs in the nuclear debate in Germany. As already noted
previously, there are strong anti-nuclear pacifist and ecological
lobbies in Germany, which are certainly very much against such a
proposal. The most radical of them are even opposed to any form of
using nuclear means, be they civil or military. Some also amalgamate |
the ban on producing nuclear weapons imposed after the second world
war (31) with the opening of a debate on a new nuclear guarantee that
could protect Germany.
105. Yet it must not be forgotten that this hostility did not
prevent Euromissiles being stationed on German territory, thus giving
it the benefit of a first nuclear guarantee. Likewise, it is recalled
that the supposed constitutional obstacles against "out-of-area"
operations by German armed forces were taken away by a decision of the
German constitutional court, thus enabling the government to take the
action which it deemed necessary. Although the latter arguments may
not herald an affirmative answer from Germany regarding the French
proposal, they nevertheless indicate a certain flexibility in German
attitudes.
106. Finally, a last factor that might be interesting to recall
in this respect is a historical event that has already been mentioned
in the first part of the present report: the secret agreements on
defence questions and armaments, including nuclear questions, between
France, Germany and Italy of 1957-58 (Colomb-Bechar, the agreement
between the Defence Ministers of Germany (Strauss) and France
(Bourges-Maunoury) on 1st January 1957, the protocol of 25th November
1957, including Italy in addition and the agreement of 8th April 1958
concerning more particularly the building of an isotope separation
plant at Pierrelatte. The full texts of these agreements were
published only a few years ago.
107. The framework for these co-operation agreements was to be
NATO and WEU and their aim was to harmonise the military concepts of
France and Germany concerning the organisation and doctrines governing
the use and armament of their forces, with particular regard to areas
of new weaponry. The category of new weaponry allows it to be thought
that the negotiators at the time did not exclude co-operation in the
nuclear military field. Emphasis was already laid at the time on the
existence of problems of a specifically European nature and problems |
specific to European countries of the alliance, and this throws
considerable light on the reluctance of Bonn and Paris with regard to
NATO's strategy. Doubts about the readiness of the United States to
use its nuclear means in the event of significant local hostilities in
Europe was an important factor in the wish to reach agreement on this
question.
108. The prevailing concept at the time was, nevertheless, not to
weaken NATO, even though the purpose of this agreement was to face up
to American discrimination in nuclear matters between members of NATO.
Chancellor Adenauer, in the words of Defence Minister Strauss, then
said he was quite prepared to join with France and Italy in questions
of aircraft, rockets and nuclear weapons, which he believed the three
countries needed. Thus the protocol of 25th November 1957 clearly
specified that co-operation would give priority to aircraft, missiles
and the military applications of nuclear energy. However the return
to power of General de Gaulle on 1st July 1958 put an end to these
agreements and more particularly their nuclear aspects.
109. These brief historical facts can in no way be compared to
the present French proposal concerning concerted deterrence, be it in
content or the international context of the time. It is nevertheless
interesting to see how certain questions persist throughout history.
Reference is made here to the specific problems of European countries
of the alliance which again seem to be on the agenda in regard to the
discussion of concerted deterrence. It is also interesting to note
that the Germans have not always been opposed to discussion of
military nuclear problems.
110. The nature of the German answer will be very important from
a political point of view. A positive answer would open the door to a
European doctrine of deterrence in which not only British but also
French nuclear guarantees would be extended to other countries. The
fact that a future common defence would be covered by a concerted |
European deterrence would undoubtedly strengthen the political weight
of Europe on the international scene. Indeed, one cannot deny the
political impact of nuclear weapons in the world today. Mention is
sometimes made of the equalising power of this weapon in that it
allows a country that possesses it to pull itself up to the same level
as the other countries that have it. It cannot therefore be gainsaid
that such a choice would influence the CFSP instituted by the
Maastricht Treaty by strengthening Europe's authority vis-a-vis its
partners. Whether or not one is opposed to the nuclear weapon is
still today a criterion of state power. It is still a factor of
independence, too.
(c) The United Kingdom position
111. There is no major problem in this respect in the United
Kingdom which is also a nuclear power thanks to its possession of
American Trident missiles which equip its nuclear submarines. Public
opinion in Britain is also susceptible in this matter. Moreover,
Franco-British co-operation in questions of nuclear doctrine has made
great progress since 1992 as the French Prime Minister, Alain Juppe,
recently noted: "the two countries are far closer than they have
previously acknowledged". (32)
112. The Anglo-French Commission, the Joint Commission on Nuclear
Policy and Doctrine, which was established in autumn 1992 was given a
permanent status in 1993, has indeed proved to be a useful instrument
in improving relations between the two countries in military nuclear
matters. A review by this Joint Commission of the compatibility of
the deterrence doctrines of both countries led to the conclusion that
there is no irreconcilable gap between the British "flexible response"
and the French "weak against the strong" doctrine.
113. The European dimension of deterrence as seen by each of the
Western European nuclear states has also been discussed in this
Commission. A joint project, however, to develop a long distance air- |
to-ground missile has been abandoned by the United Kingdom because of
budget overruns for the Trident 2 D-5 missiles which will equip the
new strategic submarines. At present, the Joint Commission is
reviewing the role of deterrence in relation to new security risks,
including mass destruction weapons which could be deployed by states
with unstable political structures.
114. It should clearly be noted, however, that in the agenda of
the Joint Commission there is as yet no question of joint patrols by
strategic submarines from both countries and joint targeting. It is
said that for the United Kingdom, the participation of France in
NATO's Nuclear Planning Group is a preliminary question before a
discussion on such far-reaching co-operation could start.
115. It should also be noted that the United Kingdom does not see
any room for a new deterrent organisation in Europe outside NATO. (33)
(d) The reaction of the European Union
116. The formal Council meeting of the sixteen ministers for
foreign affairs held in Santander (Spain) did not reach even a minimum
consensus on this question. The meeting ended on 10th September and
revealed differences between neutral countries which were reticent
about the question of European defence (and therefore a fortiori about
the nuclear question) and countries wishing to build a political
Europe through a CFSP together with a common defence system. Also,
the summit meeting of heads of state and of government in Majorca, in
the Balearic islands, on 22nd and 23rd September allowed no specific
progress to be made in this matter.
117. It seems that the polemic atmosphere created by the French
nuclear tests is not favourable for starting the debate on concerted
deterrence before all tests have been finished and the CTBT has been
signed.
VI. The development of a European defence identity and concerted
deterrence |
118. In the post-cold war world, new relationships between old
allies are inevitably taking shape, and it is no secret that Europe
will have to do more for its own security, even if at this moment, or
in the foreseeable future, there is no question of disbanding the
Atlantic Alliance which for so many years has been and still continues
to be the bedrock of European security.
119. The development of a European defence identity requires the
establishment of a complete common security and, in time, defence
policy. The role and future of these weapons in such a European
security and defence policy can certainly not be ignored with two
Western European states having a nuclear arsenal at their disposal.
120. In this framework, it should also be taken into
consideration that the continuing existence of a United States nuclear
umbrella against the threat of a massive armed attack on Western
Europe is less relevant today than during the cold war. Even though
uncertainties persist as regards developments in Russia with its still
impressive nuclear forces, there is no doubt that the threat from the
East has largely diminished.
This change of context should be a stimulant for new thinking in the
field of deterrence and the specific role of the French and British
nuclear forces, bearing in mind that the United States nuclear forces
will continue to play a major role in the defence strategy of the
Atlantic Alliance.
121. It is important to understand that a slow and considered
approach is necessary in these questions. The European countries
concerned should adopt a policy of small steps as the European
institutions did successfully in other areas. A slow approach should
not lead to immobility, however. Small steps should not result in
marking time which would be highly prejudicial for the defence of
Europe. To do nothing in this matter would not help to define the
European defence identity and would thus jeopardise the common defence |
plans provided for in the Maastricht Treaty. A direction for the
years to come must therefore be chosen if any steps at all are to be
taken. The question is simple: should concerted steps be taken by
the countries of the Union for a European deterrent and, if so, by
what ways and means?
122. Since, according to the Maastricht Treaty, WEU's task is to
develop a European defence identity, it is particularly concerned with
the debate on a European deterrence since this would be a component
part of common defence. France suggests that this still vague
identity must inevitably include a concerted nuclear strategy, but it
is noted here that the French proposal for concerted deterrence is
also rather vague. Before any discussion on this issue could start,
France should present more specific ideas and provide more details
regarding its own ideas on this issue. Clearly WEU would be the ideal
centre for concerting the European approach, NATO would be the body
for links with the United States. This would be what might be called
constructive complementarity.
123. The strategic problem is twofold: on the one hand, France's
redefinition of the notion of vital interests and the concept of
sanctuarising the national territory, which are the criteria for
committing its nuclear weapons, and on the other, the positioning of
this concerted deterrence in regard to NATO.
124. France will indeed have to redefine the vital interests
which govern the use of its nuclear deterrent force. Quite naturally,
the vital interests nuclear weapons are supposed to protect are in the
first place connected with the integrity of national territory. Over
the years, this very strict notion of national interests has been
gradually extended and at present there can be little doubt that the
French doctrine does not apply exclusively to its national territory
in the strictest sense. Aggression against Germany, for example, could
just as well call in question the vital interests of France. With the |
increasingly intensifying social, economic and political links between
European states, creating an unprecedented interdependence, there is
therefore a need to clarify and redefine the notion of vital interests
and to find a definition of what might be the European common interest
that might be defended by French nuclear weapons. In this respect,
firm backing may be found in Article V of the modified Brussels
Treaty, which stipulates that: "If any of the high contracting
parties should be the object of an armed attack in Europe, the other
high contracting parties will... afford the party so attacked all the
military and other aid and assistance in their power." This article
seems to imply that France and the United Kingdom could be led to make
use of their nuclear deterrent force in the event of an attack on one
of the other states party to the treaty. Article V of the modified
Brussels Treaty would therefore seem to contain all the elements for
circumscribing what might be covered by the notion of common European
interest in the framework of thinking on concerted deterrence.
125. Concerted deterrence also raises problems in regard to the
place it would take in relation to the American deterrent instituted
in the framework of NATO. Would there not be a duplication of nuclear
umbrellas between the one offered by the United States and the United
Kingdom in the framework of NATO and another one which could be
offered by France?
126. On 6th September 1995, in his speech to the Institut des
hautes etudes de defense nationale (IHEDN), the French Prime Minister,
Alain Juppe, discreetly made it understood that Paris was no longer
opposed to discussing in NATO, or at least in a renovated NATO, its
independent nuclear force.
127. To that end, he recalled that "the American presence is and
will remain essential for our security" and even mentioned the
possibility of French participation in a discussion on nuclear
deterrence in the Atlantic Alliance, which would be a change in the |
attitude adopted since 1966; thus he stated that "French doctrine is
built on the model of deterrence of the strong by the weak. This is
what is known in mathematics as a borderline case because it does not
take account, inter alia, of our membership of alliances. I believe
that at a time when we are setting our sights on the achievement of a
common defence policy with our European partners, including the United
Kingdom, while working to renovate the transatlantic link, we must
learn to introduce the collective dimension as a factor of our
doctrine."
128. It is therefore clear for the French Prime Minister that the
emergence of concerted deterrence in a European defence system would
in no way call in question the American nuclear protection to which
Germany and the United Kingdom are very attached. For him, a nuclear
deterrent force protecting the vital interests of Europe might be
included in the relevant NATO arrangements. This nevertheless implies
a redefinition of the position of European states within that alliance
and particularly of France, which withdrew in 1966. This conclusion is
drawn from the fact that the Americans may lose their pre-eminent
position as regards nuclear deterrence within the alliance.
Understandably, France may not agree to link its deterrent force to
NATO without having the benefit of decision-making powers regarding
its commitment. This desire to keep a degree of independence is
confirmed by the political dimension of the resumption of French
nuclear tests at the present juncture. Everything rests on a
redefinition of the place of France and of its deterrent force in
regard to the alliance. One may have to think in terms of the need
for a new deal in this respect. It may thus be understood that
Europeans will not build up a joint defence under the protection of a
concerted nuclear deterrence without the United States. NATO remains
the essential instrument for discussion and co-ordination between
effective United States protection and the emergence of concerted |
European deterrence.
NOTES
(1). Adopted in committee by 14 votes to 3 with 1 abstention.
(2). Members of the committee: Mr. Baumel (Chairman); Mr. De Decker
(Vice-Chairman); Mr. Alloncle, Mrs. Beer, MM. Bianchi, Briane, Brito,
Cox, Dees, Dumont, Fernandes Marques, Mrs. Fernandez Ramiro, MM. Hardy
(Alternate: Sir Russell Johnston), Horn, Jacquat, Kelchtermans,
Kotsonis, La Russa, Mrs. Lentz-Cornette, MM. Lopez Valdivielso
(Alternate: Lopez Henares), Marten, Lord Newall, MM. Parisi,
Paschalidis, Pavlidis, Pecriaux, Petruccioli (Alternate: Guidi), Reis
Leite (Alternate: Mrs. Aguiar), Schloten, Sir Dudley Smith, Mr. Sole
Tura (Alternate: Cuco), Mrs. Soutendijk van Appeldoorn, Sir Keith
Speed, MM. Speroni, Vazquez, Woltjer, Zierer.
Associate members: Mr. Kilic, Mrs. Ozver.
(3). Dominique Mongin, "La genese de l'armement nucleaire francais",
Universite de Paris 1 - Sorbonne 1991; W. Kohl, "French nuclear
diplomacy", Princeton, Princeton University Press, 1971; M. Duval,
Yves Le Baut, "L'arme nucleaire francaise: pourquoi? comment?", Paris,
SPM, 1992; Spencer Weart, "La grande aventure des atomistes francais",
Paris, Fayard, 1980; Yves Rocard, "La naissance de la bome atomique
francaise", La Recherche, no. 141, February 1983.
(4). Cohen Samy, "Les peres de la bombe atomique francaise", dans
l'Histoire no. 117, December 1988.
(5). Journal officiel de la Republique francaise, Assemblee
nationale, debats, 3rd July 1952; voting against the amendment: 518 to
100.
(6). An influential event in this connection was the meeting at the
Quai d'Orsay on 26 December 1954, where Pierre Mendes France decided
that France should pursue its research under a common-core programme
and retain the military option.
(7). The initiative was also known as the "armaments triangle"; see
studies by L. Nutti, E. Conze and C. Barbier, Revue d'Histoire
Diplomatique no. 1-2, 1990. |
(8). At a press conference in April 1954, General de Gaulle stated:
"French governments have made our defence entirely dependent on
others, through our lack of atomic weapons, over which we have given
them a monopoly... without requiring participation in plans and
decisions in the atomic war." Charles de Gaulle, Discours et Messages,
Volume 2, Paris, Plon 1970.
(9). Cited in Claude Delmas, Histoire politique de la bombe
atomique, Paris, Albin Michel, 1967, pages 289-290.
(10). The Rapporteur of the Defence Committee of the French National
Assembly even stated at the time that "The creation of a nuclear force
and thermonuclear national force... is now fundamental to our
military effort". Journal officiel, Assemblee Nationale Francaise,
Debats, 7th December 1956, page 5586.
(11). Maurice Vaisse, "France's atomic choice (1945-1958)", XXeme
siecle, Revue d'Histoire, no. 36, 1992.
(12). Reggane is situated in the Tanezrouf. Apart from the base
camp located on the plateau, the firing range included an ancillary
base at Hammodia.
(13). These atolls are 1 200 km from Tahiti and more than 4 000 km
from any major city on the shores of the Pacific.
(14). The atolls form part of French Polynesia, which has the status
of overseas territory. Article 74 of the French Constitution makes
special arrangements for them in view of their specific interests in
the overall interests of the Republic. The representative of the
government is a high commissioner. He is responsible for national
interests, administrative control and respect of laws in the
territory. The territory is administered freely by elected
representatives.
(15). Comments reported in Le Monde, 17th August 1995 in an article
entitled "Australian and New Zealand scientists minimise the impact of
French nuclear tests on the environment".
(16). Ibid, Note 34, International Court of Justice, on nuclear
tests.
(17). Permanent International Court of Justice, Eastern Greenland
case, PCIJ, Ser. A/B, No. 53, 68 (1933); International Court of |
Justice, Nuclear Tests case (Australia vs France), ICJ, Rep. 253
(1974); see also S. Carbone, "Promise in international law: a
confirmation of its binding force", International Yearbook I.L. 1975,
pages 166-172; J-P. Jacques, "A propos de la promess unilaterale",
Melange Reuter, 1981, pages 327-345.
(18). Principle found inter alia in Article 31.1 of the 1969 Vienna
Convention on the Law of Treaties.
(19). Financial Times, 7th September 1995.
(20). See for example the Financial Times, 3rd October 1995 "French
N-test prompts wave of criticism" or Le Figaro, 3rd October 1995 "Les
regrets de l'etranger".
(21). For more details in this respect, see the article by B.
Bollaert "L'indefectible soutien de Helmut Kohl" in Le Figaro, 7th
September 1995.
(22). See The Times, 7th September 1995 "Rifkind refuses to join in
the condemnation".
(23). Le Monde, 19th October 1995.
(24). Address by the French Prime Minister to the IHEDN on 6th
September 1995.
(25). Assemblee Nationale, Commission de la defense, rapport
d'information no. 847, "La simulation des essais nucleaires" (Defence
Committee report on the simulation of nuclear tests).
(26). President Mitterrand had already alluded to it in 1992.
(27). Article by Daniel Vernet "France-OTAN: la fin des tabous"
(France-NATO: the ending of taboos), Le Monde, 31st October 1995.
(28). Recommendation 517.
(29). Le Monde, 9th September 1995.
(30). Le Figaro, 22nd September 1995.
(31). The September 1954 London conference placed a ban on the
production of nuclear weapons on German territory and in the 1954
Paris Agreements. Germany undertook not to produce ABC weapons on its
territory.
(32). Defense News, September 11th-17th 1995.
(33). Prime Minister John Major, in an interview in Le Monde, 29th-
30th October 1995.
APPENDIX
Glossary
AEC
Atomic Energy Commissariat. French organisation dealing with nuclear |
questions, particularly the military applications of nuclear research.
Airix 2
Project currently being carried out by the CEA (French Atomic Energy
Commissariat) for a high penetration X-ray generator to be located at
Vaujours-Moronvilliers. This radiographic facility is essential for
blank firings. It enables very detailed analyses to be made of
instability problems in chain reactions that arise during priming of
detonators.
Blank firings
Tests carried out without nuclear material. These cannot at present
replace full-scale tests. Observation of phenomena produced during
these tests will be made possible thanks to Airix 2, the future French
high penetration X ray generator.
Concerted deterrence
Proposal made by the President of France, Mr. Jacques Chirac, for
discussing the extension of the French nuclear guarantee and a common
nuclear doctrine with his European partners. Concerted deterrence
cannot be equated either with shared deterrence where all countries
taking part would have a "finger on the trigger" on the same basis as
France or "extended deterrence which would merely extend the
guarantee.
CTBT
Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty. Treaty placing a complete ban on
nuclear testing. France is committed to signing after conducting its
final series of tests. The treaty has been negotiated in the
framework of the Disarmament Conference which has set 1996 as
deadline.
DIRCEN
Direction des Centres d'Experimentation Nucleaires. A French joint
services/AEC body tasked with preparing and carrying out measures for
the operation of devices. It therefore used the French test facilities
in the South Pacific.
ECJ
European Court of Justice
Euratom
European treaty signed on 25th March 1957 creating the EAEC (European
Atomic
Energy Community); it entered into force on 1st January 1958 at the
same time as the Treaty of Rome founding the former EEC; Euratom is
concerned only with civilian nuclear questions |
IAEA
International Atomic Energy Agency. International organisation with
responsibility, inter alia, for supervising compliance with non
proliferation norms
ICJ
International Court of Justice
IHEDN
Institut des hautes etudes de defense nationale. A high-level French
education and training institute on contemporary strategic and
military problems.
Laser megajoule (LMJ)
French ultra high power laser project for simulating nuclear
explosions using thermonuclear micro-explosion techniques. The AEC
plans to locate it in Aquitaine; a co-operative project with the
United States is under consideration.
Moratorium
Period during which a state agrees to abstain from nuclear testing,
often through a declaration or promise placing it in the legal
category of unilateral acts, legally enforceable against that state
should it fail to comply with their terms. France observed a
moratorium on nuclear testing between April 1992 and June 1995.
Moscow Treaty
Treaty signed by the United States, the USSR and the United Kingdom on
5th August 1963 on the banning of nucleartesting in the atmosphere, in
space and under water, France refused to accede to it.
M-45
French missile which is to carry the TN-75 warhead. The future SOP
strategic nuclear submarines will each be equipped with 16 such
missiles.
NPT
Non-proliferation Treaty. Treaty initially concluded in 1968 (coming
into force in 1970) for a 25-year period. 178 countries ratified it
(France and China in 1992). A conference held from 18th April to 12th
May extended it indefinitely. The treaty restricts the states
authorised to possess nuclear weapons to five; however it provides for
compensation for non-nuclear states.
OMTC
Oasis Military Test Centre. Name given to the Sahara test site at In
Ecker in the Hoggar, where France conducted some of its first nuclear
tests.
OT (TOM)
Overseas Territory. Part of French territory with some independence.
Such territories have an administrative Assembly. French Polynesia is |
in this category
PALEN Programme
Programme of adjustment to the limitation of nuclear testing. This
French scientific programme is intended to simulate nuclear tests so
that full-scale testing need no longer be carried out. From a
technological point of view it uses highly sophisticated radiological
techniques essential for blank testing (Airix 2), high-power pulse
generators and extremely powerful computers.
PTC
Pacific Test Centre. This is the complex in French Polynesia in the
South Pacific where nuclear testing is carried out. The tests are
conducted on the Mururoa and Fangataufa atolls (forming part of the
atolls of Tuamutu.
Reganne - In Ecker
Sites in the Sahara chosen by France for carrying out its first
nuclear tests
SOF
Strategic Ocean Force. A force made up of French nuclear missile
launching submarines forming a very important part of French nuclear
deterrent forces. Future Triumphant-class submarines will carry M 45
missiles with TN-75 nuclear warheads
Thermonuclear
Refers to the fusion reaction produced by the hydrogen bomb. The first
French test of this type was held in Fangataufa (French Polynesia) on
24th August 1968 (atmospheric test); the TN-75 is a thermonuclear
weapon
TN-75
TN = tete nucleaire. The TN-75 is the latest French nuclear warhead,
to be carried by the M-45 missile that will arm the future French
Triumphant-class nuclear missile launching submarines
UNSCEAR
United Nations Scientific Committee on the Effects of Atomic
Radiation. United Nations body with the task, inter alia, of
receiving, studying and verifying all documents transmitted by states
in connection with nuclear tests.
Validation
Makes it possible to check, by means of full-scale nuclear tests, that
scientists' calculations actually produce the forecast effect. For
the time being, nuclear tests are the only means France has of
validating its calculations (until a full test simulation programme is
produced). A nuclear weapon is described as "qualified" when all |
calculations involved in its manufacture have been validated and it is
ready for mass production. A weapon is validated when it is totally
reliable.
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© 1998, WEU Assembly
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