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Satellite launch will incur new price for Pyongyang

People's Daily Online

(Global Times) 23:12, February 04, 2016

North Korea notified the International Maritime Organization on Tuesday that it will launch what it called an 'earth observation satellite' sometime between February 8 and 25. It is anticipated that the launch will be around February 16, the anniversary of the birth of late North Korean leader Kim Jong-il.

The international community believes that the launch is actually a test of an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM), which has been forbidden by UN Security Council resolutions on North Korea. As discussions about imposing new sanctions are becoming intense, Pyongyang's upcoming move will certainly give hard-liners, such as the US, South Korea and Japan, more leverage.

No matter how desperate it is, Pyongyang is definitely pushing the country into a hopeless abyss. On the surface, Pyongyang has mystically managed to develop nuclear weaponry and used it to maneuver major-power conflicts. But it is only a delusion to think Pyongyang has dominated the complicated situation.

Pyongyang is believed to be equipped with primary nuclear weapons-related facilities, so it is far away from launching a nuclear missile. If there is information to prove that Pyongyang is on the threshold of projecting nuclear weaponry to US soil, the reactions of the US, South Korea and Japan will be much sharper.

Pyongyang should be put on notice that threats are approaching as it is exerting the whole nation's resources to develop strategic nuclear ICBMs. It hopes to gain the upper hand in the gamble, and it has surely gained some initiative at certain points, but it is too weak to direct how the situation will evolve. If it does spiral out of control, North Korea will be the first to be crushed.

Pyongyang's nuclear facilities are more or less toys to the US. Even if it does acquire a nuclear missile, its effect will be compromised.

North Korea aspires to achieve multiple strategic goals, including being internationally recognized as a nuclear power, securing the legitimacy of its domestic political system, getting more initiative in the issue of reunification and enhancing its status in Northeast Asia. Far from reaching the first goal, Pyongyang will face a depressing situation for a long time to come.

Two decades ago, when the North Korean nuclear program first emerged, Pyongyang had a smaller development gap with its neighbors. Several of China's neighboring socialist countries survived the political turmoil caused by the demise of the Soviet Union and Eastern Europe. A significant part of their political stability was deprived from socialist China. This deserves the reflection of Pyongyang elites. A realistic attitude is essential to each Northeast Asian country, but most particularly to Pyongyang.

Chinese society, though it has diverging opinions toward the Pyongyang regime, supports the government to strengthen sanctions over North Korea. We would like to see Pyongyang's continuing political stability and advocate the Chinese government to strike a balance between sanctions and preventing a Pyongyang collapse. But if the North does launch a satellite, it will pay a new price.