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Backgrounder: North Korea After Kim

Council on Foreign Relations

Author: Jayshree Bajoria, Staff Writer

September 24, 2008

The absence of North Korean leader Kim Jong-Il (Chosun Ilbo) from the country's sixtieth anniversary celebrations in September 2008 sparked questions about his health and intense speculation about the future of the country without him. North Korea, a nuclear-armed country under communist rule, is one of the most closed-off societies in the world. A new CFR Council Special Report (PDF) says there is a genuine possibility that North Korea might intentionally transfer nuclear weapons or materials to a terrorist group, and thus merits Cold War-style methods of deterrence from the United States. While some experts believe the country might see some reform in the period after Kim, others see little hope for change, especially in the so far unsuccessful effort to rid North Korea of its nuclear weapons.

Transfer of Power

Since its founding in 1945, North Korea has been under the leadership of the Kim dynasty. Known as the "Great Leader," Kim Il-Sung ruled from 1945 until his death in 1994. His son, Kim Jong-Il, the "Dear Leader," took over as head of state in 1994 and is now 66. Both father and son have ruled the country as an absolute dictatorship. Experts have often characterized North Korea as a failed state that is unable to provide for its people. Gary Samore, CFR's vice president and an expert on North Korea, says it is probably the most brutal regime in the world today.

Kim Jong-Il has three sons but has not announced his successor, leading to worries about who will control the country after him and if the transition will be peaceful. News reports have cited South Korean officials as saying Kim was recovering from a stroke (BBC) he suffered in August.

Read the rest of this article on the cfr.org website.

Copyright 2008 by the Council on Foreign Relations. This material is republished on GlobalSecurity.org with specific permission from the cfr.org. Reprint and republication queries for this article should be directed to cfr.org.