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Analysis: China Plays Its North Korea Hand

Council on Foreign Relations

October 31, 2006
Prepared by: Michael Moran

Ever protective of North Korea’s sovereignty, China chose not to overplay the alarm, or any of the anger it may have felt about North Korea’s nuclear test earlier this month. Yet three weeks after Pyongyang’s nuclear detonation, with U.S.-led efforts to enforce new United Nations sanctions drawing lukewarm pledges in the region, China’s behind-the-scenes arm twisting apparently convinced North Korea to ratchet down the defiance a notch.

Tuesday’s announcement by China’s foreign ministry of a resumption of Six-Party Talks on North Korean nuclear weapons hardly counts as a breakthrough given the fruitless trajectory of the multiple rounds of talks which came before. Yet U.S., Japanese, Australian, and other regional governments fearful of a North Korean regime immune to outside pressure may take heart that China finally made use of its unique leverage over Kim Jong-Il’s regime. CFR.org’s Carin Zissis looks at China’s economic ties with the North in this Backgrounder.

Economic pressure on North Korea, which conducted its nuclear test October 9, likely played a role in getting Kim to return to the table. Monthly statistics released by China’s Ministry of Commerce show a sharp, unprecedented drop in oil deliveries to Pyongyang in September (NYT), as concerns about a possible test heightened. Publicly, China says its trade with the North remains normal (AP) and reports suggest many other goods continue to flow (Globe&Mail). Adam Segal, CFR Senior Fellow for China Studies, notes in an interview with CFR.org’s Bernard Gwertzman that Pyongyang previously had set conditions on its return to talks, claiming a U.S. crackdown on suspected North Korean black market currency dealings had broken previous agreements. Whether concessions from Washington also were involved remains unclear.

Read the rest of this article on the cfr.org website.

Copyright 2006 by the Council on Foreign Relations. This material is republished on GlobalSecurity.org with specific permission from the cfr.org. Reprint and republication queries for this article should be directed to cfr.org.