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Analysis: Stakes Rise for North Korea

Council on Foreign Relations

Updated October 19, 2006
Prepared by: CFR.org Staff

The pressure on North Korea to stop its nuclear proliferation continues to build though Pyongyang appears unwilling to change its behavior. As a Chinese envoy who met with Kim Jong-Il called for restraint (BBC), U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice urged South Korea to join in enforcing sanctions laid out in UN Resolution 1718. Her remarks after her talks in Seoul with President Roh Moo Hyun suggested no firm commitments from South Korea (Korea Times), which has doggedly pursued a policy of engagement from the North in spite of last weekend's rogue nuclear blast.

Specifically, Rice wants South Korea to inspect northbound cargo, and to join the U.S.-led Proliferation Security Initiative aimed at preventing the trade in weapons of mass destruction or their components. Pressure within South Korea for a more forceful reaction also has increased, with the authoritative and generally sober Chosun Ilbo asking in an editorial, “Has the Government Lost Its Marbles?” Rice remains upbeat and insists Pyongyang’s decision to test a nuclear weapon is “reversible.” However, a senior North Korean official has said a second nuclear test "is natural" (ABC).

Such an act would likely worsen the ailing China-North Korea relationship. The Chinese diplomatic visit to Pyongyang comes at a time when Beijing feels "a great deal of anger personally at Kim and the Korean military," says CFR Senior Fellow Adam Segal in an interview with Bernard Gwertzman. The blog North Korea Zone says the October 9 test was a play for Chinese attention; Pyongyang feels wounded over Beijing’s blossoming "romance" with South Korea in which China sees the Kim Jong-Il regime as “at best an inconvenience and irritant and at worst a dangerous, disruptive force.”

Read the rest of this article on the cfr.org website.

Copyright 2006 by the Council on Foreign Relations. This material is republished on GlobalSecurity.org with specific permission from the cfr.org. Reprint and republication queries for this article should be directed to cfr.org.