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Analysis: The Ties That Bind

Council on Foreign Relations

July 11, 2006
Prepared by: Esther Pan

A week after North Korea tested seven ballistic missiles, drawing the world's censure, attention is shifting to China. Beijing, a longtime supporter of Pyongyang—and the source of much of North Korea's food and fuel—is an important voice in the international debate over how to handle North Korea's actions. On July 11, Chinese President Hu Jintao made an unusual public appeal to North Korea, asking the authoritarian regime of Kim Jung-Il not to exacerbate international tensions with further missile launches (AP). China sees North Korea as an important buffer between it and South Korea—as well as the source of a massively destabilizing flood of refugees if the regime collapses. To prevent that eventuality, Beijing has been propping up the Kim regime to the tune of $2 billion in annual aid, trade, and investment (CSMonitor). North Korea is also increasingly looking to China as an authoritarian state that has successfully instituted economic reforms while retaining political control. Pyongyang has even attempted some economic reforms in the Chinese model, as explained in this Backgrounder.

Many Western observers think China's influence over North Korea is strong enough to rein in Kim's militaristic tendencies. Niall Ferguson writes in the Los Angeles Times that China can choose to pull the plug on the Kim regime whenever it wants. But North Korea is reacting to external pressure with defiance and threatening another round of missile tests (LAT). The BBC lists the position of each member of the Six-Party Talks on the North Korean nuclear issue.

There are signs China may be losing patience with Kim, whose actions could provoke a war in the region or prompt Japan to rearm.

Read the rest of this article on the cfr.org website.

Copyright 2006 by the Council on Foreign Relations. This material is republished on GlobalSecurity.org with specific permission from the cfr.org. Reprint and republication queries for this article should be directed to cfr.org.