NK open to US nuke deal
2004-01-06
As two U.S. groups begin their rare journey today (Jan. 5) to North Korea that may include a tour to its nuclear complex at Yeongbyeon, attention is centering on to which extent the communist state will allow them to see the nuclear site, and how it will affect future six-way talks aimed at ending the nuclear crisis.
North Korea has allowed the U.S. teams, one comprising congressional aides and the other private nuclear scientists, to visit its main nuclear facilities at Yeongbyeon during Jan. 6-10, South Korea's Foreign Ministry officials said last week.
Most officials and analysts agree that the move represents Pyongyang's willingness to speed up negotiations with Washington by offering a glimpse of its nuclear capability, but that the country will stop short of disclosing its suspected nuclear weapons or plutonium that could make bombs.
"What the North wants is to settle the issue at an early date. In that context, it may attempt to accelerate the diplomatic process by showing the U.S. delegations that nuclear reactors are indeed being reactivated," a government official said on condition of anonymity. "But it would not risk raising tensions further by disclosing weapons or plutonium."
Prof. Koh Yu-hwan of Dongguk University presented a similar prospect. "As the United States has dismissed the North's repeated claims of its nuclear capability, the North will try to demonstrate its nuclear development. But the country is unlikely to uncover its entire weapons program, because it could render even its supporters turn their back against its regime."
Unlike their general consensus on the issue, analysts are divided over whether the visit will have any major impact on diplomatic efforts to resolve the 14-month-old nuclear standoff.
Some remain skeptical because none of the visitors are representing the U.S. administration.
"North Korea is trying to send a message to the hawkish Bush administration via the visitors who are rather friendly to the regime, but Washington will likely remain at arms-length," another government official said. "They don't want people outside the administration to engage in diplomacy."
Two aides from the U.S. Senate Foreign Relations Committee, Keith Luse of its Republican staff and Frank Jannuzi of the Democratic staff, visit Pyongyang.
The other group includes Charles Jack Pritchard, the State Department's former envoy to North Korea, Sig Hecker, director of the national nuclear laboratory at Los Alamos, and John Wilson Lewis, North Korea expert at Stanford University.
"Their impact on U.S. foreign policies is minimal. As for Pritchard, he is considered 'far too left' by Washington," said the official.
Indeed, the Bush administration expressed uneasiness at their visit to the nuclear complex at the weekend, saying any diplomacy must be made within the framework of six-nation negotiations.
"They are not acting on behalf of the administration. Any efforts that complicate prospects or undertakings to reconvene six-party talks aren't helpful," U.S. State Department Adam Ereli said Saturday.
Nevertheless, others still hope this will work as a breakthrough to the ongoing nuclear dispute between Washington and Pyongyang.
If it goes off as planned, the trip would be the first time that outsiders have been allowed to see the site since the North expelled U.N. nuclear monitors at the end of 2002.
Since nobody outside the world's last Stalinist state knows for certain how much progress has since been made in its nuclear development, emergence of exact knowledge could accelerate diplomatic efforts, they say.
"If Washington can ascertain whether Pyongyang has really been working on the nuclear weapons program, the six nations may agree on a big frame to resolve the crisis based on the fact," said Prof. Koh.
More optimistic analysts interpreted the North's permission on the U.S. visit to Yeongbyeon nuclear facilities as signaling its intention to accept future nuclear inspections by the United States once a negotiated settlement to end the North's weapons program was struck.
What will emerge during the trip by the American experts, and how it will affect six-way talks that includes the two Koreas, the United States, China, Japan and Russia, remain unclear, partly because of the unpredictable character of the North Korean regime.
But the date for the second round of six-way talks is likely to be affected, according to experts, as negotiating countries will have to analyze the outcome of the Pyongyang visit before resuming their negotiations.
Source : www.korea.net
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