Weapons of Mass Destruction (WMD)

DATE=03/14/2003

TYPE=ON THE LINE

NUMBER=1-09293

TITLE=NORTH KOREAN PROVOCATION SHORT #1

INTERNET=Yes

EDITOR=OFFICE OF POLICY 619-0038

CONTENT=

THEME: UP, HOLD UNDER AND FADE

Host: This is On the Line, and I'm ---------. North Korea is trying to ratchet up tensions with a string of provocative acts. The Communist regime test-fired two missiles into the sea of Japan. North Korean fighter jets menaced a United States reconnaissance plane that was flying in international airspace. And after breaking an agreement to shelve its plans for nuclear weapons, North Korea restarted its nuclear plant at Ygonbyon.

Gary Milhollin is director of the Wisconsin Project on Nuclear Arms control. He says that North Korea has created a crisis:

Milhollin: North Korea is in the position now of being able to produce enough plutonium for five or six additional [nuclear] weapons by late this year. And since North Korea has sold virtually everything it has made in the way of weaponry, we have to assume that we could be for the first time in history seeing weapon-usable quantities of plutonium in world commerce. Sell those to al-Qaida, sell those to perhaps [Libyan dictator] Muammar Qadhafi, or at a minimum, incorporation of this plutonium into additional warheads in North Korea that could threaten Japan, threaten our [U.S.] troops and make it much more difficult for us to get North Korea to strike an acceptable deal later on.

Host: Nicholas Eberstadt is a researcher at the American Enterprise Institute. He says the U-S should sit down to talk with the North Koreans, but not let them get away with blackmail:

Eberstadt: Talk is harmless. What seems to me to be very dangerous, however, is rewarding the North Korean government for violating its nuclear agreements, not only because of the reinforcement of dangerous behavior for the North Korean government, but because of the terribly dangerous lesson and precedent that establishes for other would-be proliferators. So far the lesson from the latest North Korean crisis to other would-be proliferators is: "If you hurry up and get your hands on the stuff, you will be rewarded not punished."

Host: Gordon Flake is executive director of the Mansfield Center for Pacific Affairs. He says that North Korea's actions have already sent a dangerous message to other rogue states:

Flake: Many people are arguing that North Korea offers the best case for why we have to act preemptively in Iraq. Because, once a country has weapons of mass destruction, then the political and security calculus in dealing with them becomes much more complex. And our options in dealing with North Korea are much more constrained.

Host: The United States is trying to build a unified front among countries in the region to deal with the threat posed by North Korea. For On the Line, I'm -----------.