Weapons of Mass Destruction (WMD)

DATE=3/6/03

TYPE=INTERVIEW TRANSCRIPT

TITLE=LEON SIGAL

NUMBER=3-573

BYLINE=SARAH WILLIAMS

DATELINE=WASHINGTON

CONTENT=

/// EDITORS: THIS INTERVIEW IS AVAILABLE IN DALET UNDER SOD/ENGLISH NEWS NOW INTERVIEWS IN THE FOLDER FOR TODAY OR YESTERDAY ///

OPEN: The United States is sending 24 long-range bombers to Guam in an effort to contain any possible North Korean aggression. Pentagon officials say the decision is not related to Sunday's intercept of a U-S spy plane by four North Korean fighter jets near the Korean peninsula. Leon Sigal (See-gle), the director of the Northeast Asia Cooperative Security Project in New York, tells VOA's Sarah Williams why he thinks the U-S is boosting its air power in the Pacific.

MR. SIGAL: You take prudent military steps when you're in a crisis. And we are clearly in a crisis. The most significant step, of course, would be to reinforce the U.S. troop presence in South Korea. But that would raise grave political questions in Seoul. And so it's interesting that that step has not been taken, nor should it be. Because if it does, it will expose the rift in the alliance.

There was an agreement between the United States and North Korea in 1994, by which North Korea froze up front its plutonium nuclear weapons program. And the United States was obliged to move toward, in the words of the agreement, full political and economic normalization -- in plain English, to end enmity and sanctions -- and to supply a replacement reactor, or two actually, but one by 2003. The sad fact is the United States did not live up to that accord.

In 1997, the North Koreans began warning us, if we didn't live up to the agreement, they were not obliged to. And shortly thereafter, they began a uranium enrichment program, which is another way to make nuclear weapons.

In 1999, the Clinton administration began cooperating seriously with the North and we started getting somewhere. The first step was, in September 1999, the North suspended test launches of ballistic missiles. Kim Jong-Il sent his number two in command to Washington, and there was a joint communiqué issued from that which said that -- and I quote -- neither government shall have hostile intent toward the other. In plain English, we're not enemies. Within 10 days, Secretary of State Albright went to Pyongyang, and Kim Jong-Il himself put their missile program on the negotiating table.

What the North wanted in return, above all, was a visit by President Clinton to Pyongyang. When President Clinton decided not to go, negotiations stalled. Then, when President Bush took over, I mean, President Bush moved the goal posts, and we have been heading downhill ever since.

MS. WILLIAMS: Haven't they also called for bilateral talks rather than multilateral talks?

MR. SIGAL: Well, the only country in the world that can commit the United States to security assurances to the North is the United States. Nobody else can do that. So, it makes no sense for anybody else to be talking to them.

MS. WILLIAMS: South Korea's new President, in an interview with a British newspaper, has called on the U.S., as he put it, not to go too far regarding North Korea. Could a greater U.S. military presence in the Pacific be seen as a provocation?

MR. SIGAL: Well, given the paranoia of the North about the Bush administration, it might be. But, basically, what is happening now, if you look at the pattern, the U.S. first boosted its naval presence in the region. And the North, having told everybody in the world, we're going to do it, then tested an anti-ship missile. The U.S. has increased its surveillance of the North, partly because we're worried about a new missile test and so we have reconnaissance aircraft off the coast looking for that, and the North then, as you know, sent the four MiG's up to get close to us, but not fire on us. So, this is getting very dangerous.

We're now entering a period in which the United States and South Korea are conducting large-scale military exercises, and the North will soon begin its large-scale military exercises. The problem with military exercises is they're always slightly ambiguous. You don't whether that means the start of war. But, in any case, your operating tempos start increasing, you start doing a lot of things that you're exercising, which are bound to make both sides nervous.

CLOSE: Leon Sigal (See-gle), the director of the Northeast Asia Cooperative Security Project in New York, speaking about the heightened tensions between the United States and North Korea.

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